Statistics Canada
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Quarterly Demographic Estimates

April to June 2007, Preliminary

91-002-X


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Analysis

Canada’s population increased by 105,300 people during the period from April 1 to June 30, 2007. By July 1, 2007, the Canadian population had reached 32,976,000.

The annualized demographic growth rate for this period was 12.8 per 1,000, which was slightly lower than last year for the same period (13.1 per 1,000).

Compared to the second quarter of 2006, immigration decreased, dropping from 67,900 to 61,600 (-9.2%), or less than the average for the second quarters of the last five years (66,000).

The number of immigrants nevertheless increased in almost all jurisdictions, with British Columbia, (-17.2%) and Ontario (-15.5%) being the most evident exceptions. Alberta, Prince Edward Island and Manitoba welcomed a record number of immigrants for a second quarter.

Newcomers are choosing to settle in more diverse locations. Ontario is attracting increasingly smaller numbers. In the last quarter, 47.9% of newcomers chose Ontario. This proportion has been decreasing since the peak of 61.2% measured in the second quarter of 2002. Such a low proportion has not been observed since 1986 (47.8%).

There were 91,300 births in Canada during the period April-June this year. That many births had not been observed since the second quarter of 1997 (92,400). Most of last quarter’s growth took place in Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia. Not since 1997 have so many births been measured in Quebec and British Columbia in the April-June period. As for the 11,900 births in Alberta, they represented a new record for a second quarter.

Chart 1 Quarterly aggregated demographic components, April to June, 1973 to 2007, Canada

However, natural increase remained stable due to a similar increase in deaths, which is normal given the current aging population.

The number of non-permanent residents increased by 19,200 in the last quarter, an increase of 4.6%. The sharpest increases took place in the territories (23.0%), Alberta (12.2%) and Manitoba (7.1%).

Alberta’s lure is fading

Although it still remains very high, Alberta’s net interprovincial migration (+7,400) is lower than last year for the same quarter (+9,500). The province nevertheless posted higher population growth (28.3 per 1,000) than it did in the same period last year (27.3 per 1,000). Due to an increase in its number of births, immigrants and non-permanent residents, Alberta was able to maintain its growth rate.

In the last quarter, net interprovincial migration accounted for 30.4% of the province’s population growth. For the same period last year, net interprovincial migration accounted for 41.5% of Alberta’s population growth.

Chart 2 Annualized interprovincial migration rates, Canada, provinces and territories, April to June, 2006 and 2007

Since it peaked in the third quarter of 2006, Alberta’s net interprovincial migration has been declining. This was mainly due to the fact that the number of people leaving the province has been increasing faster than the number of people coming in.

A changing Canadian demographic profile

In addition to increased immigration in most provinces, the improvement in net provincial migration has resulted in a population increase in all jurisdictions except Newfoundland and Labrador in the last quarter. By comparison, five of the thirteen Canadian jurisdictions had lost population in the second quarter of 2005.

In the Atlantic region, all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador experienced net gains in interprovincial migration and saw their population increase in the last quarter. New Brunswick’s population started growing again after two consecutive negative quarters.

Chart 3 Annualized total growth rates, Canada, provinces and territories, April to June, 2006 and 2007

Quebec continues to grow (8.2 per 1,000), but more slowly thanthe nationalaverage. Compared to the second quarter of 2006 (8.8 per 1,000), Quebec’s population growth has been slightly slower. Increased interprovincial migration losses have cancelled out growth due to numbers of births, immigrants and non-permanent residents.

Ontario’s population growth has been much slower than usual. For the first time since 1981, the province’s growth rate (11.9 per 1,000) was lower than the national average. The decline in immigration and the number of non-permanent residents, combined with increased interprovincial migration losses, accounted for this situation.

Manitoba experienced its strongest population growth (11.4 per 1,000), for a second quarter since 1983 (14.8 per 1,000). This strong growth is due to increased numbers of immigrants and non-permanent residents, as well as to decreased interprovincial migration losses.

Of all jurisdictions, Saskatchewan has benefited the most from the increase of departures from Alberta. In the April-June period of this year, Saskatchewan experienced record net migration (+2,700) for a second quarter. The province had not experienced positive net migration since 1984 (+ 600). Over half (57.4%) of interprovincial in-migrants to Saskatchewan came from Alberta. This was the province’s third consecutive quarter showing positive net interprovincial migration.

Mainly due to these gains in interprovincial migration, Saskatchewan’s population growth (18.6 per 1,000) was stronger than the national average and the province rankedsecond amongst the provinces, behind its neighbour, Alberta.

The three territories also recorded strong population growth. Nunavut (43.4 per 1,000) and the Northwest Territories (30.4 per 1,000) posted the two strongest growth rates in Canada. As for the Yukon Territory, it came fourth (21.9 per 1,000), behind Alberta. This was due to a sharp increase in net interprovincial migration.