Interprovincial migration

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There are two sections in this edition of the Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada 2005 and 2006 that examine the phenomenon of migration within Canada, each of which uses different sources of data and each having distinct objectives. First, the present chapter on interprovincial migration is based on administrative data and, much like the other chapters from Part 1, focuses on trends from the most recently available data, as well as some broad historical trends. Second, the analytical article in Part 2 of this report is based exclusively on census data and examines internal migration trends using mainly 2006 data. In addition to national, provincial and sub-provincial analysis, it also employs the use of a more complex multivariate model in order to examine the various socio-demographic characteristics of migrants.

For the current chapter, the two primary sources of data for interprovincial migration in Canada are income tax files, used for data prior to 2007, and the Canada Child Tax Benefit files, used for 2007 data. The data for 2007 are preliminary, meaning that the counts of the migratory inflows and outflows for each particular province or territory could change once the final data become available. In general, there are few differences between the preliminary and final data for net migration. The data for 2006 are also not yet considered final as additional revisions may take place. Consequently, the 2006 and 2007 data are useful for identifying trends but caution should be used when interpreting slight fluctuations from the previous year.

Migration of residents from one province or territory to another within Canada can be variable as patterns of migratory flows may change greatly from year to year. While migratory trends for some areas in recent years have shown stability, other provinces or territories have experienced shifts in the intensity and composition of their migratory exchanges.

After more than a decade (1993 to 2005) of fewer than 300,000 persons changing their province of residence, the past two years, 2006 and 2007, have seen large increases in the number of interprovincial movers (table 5.1). In 2007, close to 370,800 residents changed province, the highest since 1981, but well below the 35 year peak in 1973 when there were 434,000 interprovincial migrants. This number has been increasing since 2003 when 255,600 persons changed their province of residence, at that time the lowest figure in 30 years.

Table 5.1
Net interprovincial migration for provinces and territories, 1981 to 2007

The trends in migration across provinces and territories over the last few years reveal several patterns. Of all the provinces and territories, Saskatchewan experienced the largest reversal of migratory flows in the period from 2005 to 2007. Over 9,700 more persons left this province than entered in 2005, and the net losses were only 2,900 in 2006. By 2007 Saskatchewan recorded a net gain of about 10,200 persons from elsewhere in Canada, perhaps the result of an emerging oil industry as well as returning migrants.

In the years since the millennium, residents of Atlantic Canada have generally left their provinces in greater numbers than they have received migrants from other parts of the country.  In fact, net migration in Newfoundland and Labrador has been consistently negative for the past 25 years, but this province has recently experienced increasingly fewer net losses. Newfoundland and Labrador had about 4,500 more people leaving than entering the province in 2005, decreasing to a net loss of 700 in 2007. Similarly, the net deficit in Nova Scotia decreased from 3,700 to 500 over the same time period. Prince Edward Island has been more stable over the past four years, its net migratory losses ranging between 200 and 600 per year after three years of net gains.

For the first time since 1990, New Brunswick showed a positive migratory balance with the other provinces and territories in 2007 (1,100). This net gain is in contrast to net losses of 2,700 residents in 2005 and 3,600 in 2006, and could be a reflection of the provincial government’s recent efforts to increase population, including the repatriation of former New Brunswick residents.¹

The province of Quebec had more out-migrants than in-migrants each year from 2004 to 2007, with a net deficit which grew from 3,300 in 2004 to 14,400 in 2007. With the exception of 2003 when there was a small postitive net balance of 200 residents, annual data recorded for this province from 1972 onward show a negative net interprovincial migration every year. Over the last 35 years the peak year of loss was in 1977 when 46,500 more persons left the province than entered. 

Ontario experienced the highest net loss of residents across all of the provinces and territories for each of the last five years, and was especially high in 2006 when 32,300 more residents left, than entered, the province. In 2007, the net deficit was less marked with 17,800 persons.
 
Manitoba experienced a net loss of interprovincial migrants in 2007, as has been the situation for many years. Among the data recorded since 1972, net gains through internal migration were observed for only two years in Manitoba, 1982 and 1983. However, over the 2005 to 2007 period there was a decreased loss to other provinces. In 2005, the net migratory loss of the province was 9,300 persons, falling to 7,700 in 2006 and 1,400 in 2007.

For much of the last 35 year period, Alberta has had sustained positive net interprovincial migration with the exception of 1983 to 1988 and 1993 to 1994 when the nation was experiencing economic downturns. Since 1995, Alberta has had positive and often substantial net migratory balances, peaking at 58,200 in 2006. The figure for 2007 shows a much lower net migration to the province (10,600), which was below net migration to British Columbia for the first time since 1996.

As is the case for Alberta, British Columbia has had positive net migration almost every year from 1972 onward with the exception being the late 1990s and the early years of the millennium, when between 5,200 and 17,500 more residents departed than arrived. Beginning in 2003, net interprovincial migration has again been positive, reaching a five year high of 13,400 residents in 2007.

In Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, there have been losses since 2003 and 2004, respectively, although these were somewhat smaller in 2007 than in previous years. In the Yukon there was a turnaround from a negative migratory exchange in 2006 to a small positive balance in 2007.

Interprovincial in-migrants and out-migrants

An analysis of the provinces and territories of origin and those areas of destination for the period 2005 to 2007, can identify which jurisdictions are gaining migrants and from where, and which areas are losing residents and to where. As in previous years, the provinces with the highest number of residents both entering and leaving were Ontario and Alberta. It should be noted that some persons arriving as in-migrants to a particular province or territory may be complete newcomers to an area while others could be returning migrants who had relocated for personal or professional reasons.

In 2007, Newfoundland and Labrador experienced fewer losses in its migratory exchanges with other jurisdictions than was the case in either 2006 or 2005 (tables 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4). Residents who left Newfoundland and Labrador in recent years went primarily to Alberta, followed by Ontario and to a lesser extent, Nova Scotia. The number of residents who left Newfoundland and Labrador for Alberta was 5,700 in 2005, 6,800 in 2006 and 5,500 in 2007. During the same years, the number of migrants that Newfoundland and Labrador received from Alberta increased from 1,700 in 2005 to 4,200 in 2007. The result of this exchange was to decrease the migration deficit of Newfoundland and Labrador with Alberta. In contrast, over the 2005 to 2007 period, the number of migrants who went to Ontario was fairly stable and, in fact, exchanges with Ontario favoured Newfoundland and Labrador during the past two years. The in-flow of migrants from neighbouring province, Nova Scotia, between 2005 and 2007 was comparable to the outflow.

Table 5.2
Annual number of interprovincial migrants, 2005

Table 5.3
Annual number of interprovincial migrants, 2006

Table 5.4
Annual number of interprovincial migrants, 2007

Each year between 2005 and 2007, Prince Edward Island received 2,700 to 3,700 residents and lost between 2,900 and 3,900 persons. In-migration to, and out-migration from, Prince Edward Island during the 2005 to 2007 period did not surpass 1,000 to or from any given province or territory. The most common destinations of Prince Edward Islanders were Ontario, Alberta, and neighbouring provinces, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. These provinces were generally the most frequent sources of in-migrants to Prince Edward Island.

Although net interprovincial migration for Nova Scotia was negative in 2007, as it has been for several consecutive years, the gap between the number of in-migrants and out-migrants decreased over the 2005 to 2007 period. Between 18,600 and 21,500 residents left Nova Scotia each year, while 14,900 to 18,600 persons arrived in the province. Ontario was the predominant source of migratory flows to Nova Scotia and the main destination of out-migrants from this province. In the past three years these exchanges with Ontario have increasingly been in favour of Nova Scotia. Alberta was also important as a destination for Nova Scotians, and while not sufficient to offset out-flows, the number of persons who came to Nova Scotia from Alberta increased over the same time period. Comparable numbers of migrants moved between Nova Scotia and neighbouring province, New Brunswick in recent years.

The three years from 2005 to 2007 marked an increase in residents moving to New Brunswick from elsewhere in Canada from 10,800 in 2005 to 16,000 in 2007, whereas out-migration varied during the same time period between 13,500 to 15,500 persons. Migratory exchanges involving New Brunswick were primarily with the provinces of Ontario, Alberta, and neighbouring Nova Scotia and Quebec. Although about 4,200 persons from New Brunswick each went to Ontario and Alberta in 2007, this represented an increase from the previous year for Ontario (from 3,700) and a drop for Alberta (from 4,800).

Quebec’s higher net deficit in 2007 compared to the two previous years was mainly due to more people leaving (rising from 28,800 in 2005 to 39,400 in 2007). Throughout the years 2005 to 2007, Ontario was by far the largest source of in-migrants to Quebec. The exchange resulted in an annual loss of between 17,700 and 20,000 migrants to Ontario but a gain of only 14,500 to 15,300 residents from Ontario. Unlike the trend in many other provinces, an increasing number of Quebec residents moved to Alberta over the past few years.

Ontario registered fewer losses in 2007 than in 2006 (but not 2005) because more people came to this province and fewer people left. In the years between 2005 and 2007, the largest flow of out-migrants from Ontario was to Alberta. However, the number of Ontarians who moved to Alberta fell from 39,500 in 2006 to 33,700 in 2007. Ontario received an increasing number of residents from Alberta from 2005 to 2007 (growing from 8,600 to 18,100). British Columbia was the second most common province of migratory exchanges with Ontario, but resulted in net losses for Ontario in each of the past three years.

During the years 2005 to 2007, the number of in-migrants to Manitoba increased from 11,300 in 2005 to 17,600 in 2007, while out-migrants fluctuated between 19,000 and 22,900. Alberta was an increasingly important source of in-migrants to Manitoba over the past few years. Although the migratory flow remained to the benefit of Alberta, the gap narrowed in 2007 compared to the previous two years. Manitoba also exchanged between 1,900 and 5,000 persons annually as either in-migrants or out-migrants with Ontario and British Columbia.

While movement of residents out of Saskatchewan was in the range of 19,500 to 23,500 between 2005 and 2007, in-migration during the same period increased dramatically from 13,700 in 2005 to 29,600 in 2007. The balance of these movements has resulted in a change from an overall negative net migration to a positive migratory balance. This reversal is largely due to flows between Saskatchewan and Alberta and to a lesser extent, with British Columbia and Ontario. From 2005 to 2007, there was a decreasing number of persons from Saskatchewan who went to Alberta (from 15,300 to 10,200), while at the same time, the number of persons arriving in Saskatchewan from Alberta increased significantly (from 6,200 to 17,200). Many of these persons could be originally from Saskatchewan and returning to their home province after a period spent in Alberta. The exchange with British Columbia in 2007 was also in favour of Saskatchewan.

Still one of the key provinces involved in migratory exchanges with other provinces and territories across Canada, the pull of Alberta was reduced in 2007 compared to the previous two years. In general, fewer persons migrated to Alberta from elsewhere in Canada in 2007 compared to 2006, and other jurisdictions received relatively more migrants from Alberta in 2007 than in the previous two years. The overall number of in-migrants was 102,400 in 2007, higher than any other province, and up from the 2005 figure (91,200) but much lower than in 2006 (121,900). In contrast, the number of out-migrants increased steadily during this three year period from 46,200 in 2005 to 91,800 in 2007. A growing number of persons leaving Alberta may be linked to returning migrants.

Similar to the rise in the number of out-migrants to Saskatchewan, the outflows from Alberta to British Columbia also increased from 21,700 to 33,200 over the 2005 to 2007 period. However, the number of in-migrants was only 23,900 in 2007, down from 28,800 in 2006 and 25,500 in 2005. These migration patterns resulted in a deficit for Alberta but a surplus for British Columbia in 2007. On the other hand, the number of in-migrants to Alberta from Ontario was higher in 2006 than 2005, and in 2007, the figure had fallen again. During this three year period, the number of out-migrants from Alberta to Ontario rose, but there was an overall balance which favoured Alberta.

The number of in-migrants to British Columbia increased from 54,100 in 2005 to 65,800 in 2007 while the number of out-migrants varied between 46,700 and 53,100. The consequence has been an increasingly positive migratory balance over the past few years. Residents of British Columbia who left the province moved primarily to Alberta, followed by Ontario. This province’s exchange with Ontario throughout the 2005 to 2007 period, were to the benefit of British Columbia.

Reflecting their smaller population base, migratory flows into and out of the territories were relatively small between 2005 and 2007. In-migrants to the Yukon and the Northwest Territories were typically from the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario. Nunavut attracted persons from Alberta, Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. Out-migrants from the Yukon and Northwest Territories were drawn to Alberta and British Columbia, while residents of Nunavut tended to go to the Northwest Territories or Ontario.

Note

1. Government of New Brunswick. Be our future:  New Brunswick's Population Growth Strategy. Accessed May 28, 2008.