Population growth and age structure

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Population growth

Canada’s population was estimated to be 33,143,600, as of January 1, 2008, up 344,900 persons from the same date in 2007. This increase in the population represents a growth of 10.5 per 1,000 in 2007, up slightly from one year earlier (10.2 per 1,000). The highest growth rate over the preceding 35 year period was in 1988 (16.1 per 1,000) when levels of immigration were very high (figure 1.1). The higher growth in 2007 occurred despite decreased immigration—there were 236,800 immigrants during this time—14,800 fewer than the previous year. Despite the drop in the number of immigrants coming to Canada, international migration was still the primary contributing factor to population growth. About two-thirds of the growth observed in Canada in 2007 is related to net migration.

Figure 1.1
Total, natural and migratory population growth rates, Canada, 1972 to 2007

The second component of population growth is natural increase or the difference between births and deaths. In 2007, there were 356,200 births and 241,300 deaths, resulting in a natural increase of 114,900 persons. Both births and deaths have been rising in recent years. An increasing number of deaths are to be expected in an aging, and overall growing, population, as is the case in Canada. Nevertheless, natural increase in 2007 was the highest level observed since 2001 because of a higher number of births in recent years. Throughout the 35 year period prior to 2007 the level of natural increase peaked in 1990 during which year there were 213,500 more births than deaths. Natural increase contributed just over one-third to the growth rate in Canada in 2007 relative to net migration.  In some developed countries such as the United States and France natural increase is a more important factor in population growth than is net migration, as a result of relatively higher fertility. Yet other countries (e.g., Germany, Japan, Russia and Hungary) are experiencing very low or negative levels of natural increase due to low fertility, resulting in sometimes negative population growth rates.¹

Population in the provinces and territories

The patterns related to population growth and the respective contribution of net international migration and natural increase for Canada as a whole can vary at the provincial and territorial level. The additional component of migratory exchanges between provinces and territories can also affect population growth in each region across the country. Compared to the growth rate for Canada as a whole in 2007, four provinces and one territory surpassed this level: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Nunavut. Newfoundland and Labrador was the only jurisdiction in Canada to lose population in 2007. In contrast, other areas experienced a positive growth in 2007 following at least one year of declining population. This was the situation for Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Yukon and the Northwest Territories. The remaining provinces reported positive but more moderate growth rates that were lower than the national average.

Alberta had the highest growth of all the provinces in 2007 (19.5 per 1,000), growing at almost double the pace of the country overall to a total population of 3,497,900 on January 1, 2008. While growth in this province has been high for a long time, the rate in 2007 was below that of 2006 (31.1 per 1,000) and 2005 (26.2 per 1,000). Although more than half of the growth in 2006 was attributed to highly positive net interprovincial migration, this fell to less than one-sixth in 2007. About 10,600 more persons from other provinces stayed in Alberta than left in 2007, far below the figure from the previous year (58,200).

In the Atlantic region, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador fell at a rate of 1.2 per 1,000 during 2007 to a population of 508,100 on January 1, 2008.  The last year that this province experienced positive growth was in 1992 resulting in a population of 580,800 on January 1, 1993. Although Newfoundland and Labrador has had negative net interprovincial migration since 1983, there were fewer net losses of residents in 2007 (700) than the previous year (4,000). Despite positive net international migration in 2007, there was an overall migratory loss as well as negative natural increase, both of which contributed to population decline.

In contrast, the other three Atlantic provinces all experienced a positive growth in 2007. Prince Edward Island grew at a rate of 6.7 per 1,000 to 139,100 persons on January 1, 2008, a rate not surpassed since 1995. This province experienced the arrival of a larger number of immigrants in 2007 compared to the preceding year as well as fewer losses in general from migratory exchanges with other jurisdictions within Canada. The populations in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick increased in 2007, following two consecutive years of population decrease. The growth in Nova Scotia (1.1 per 1,000) resulted in a population of 935,600 on January 1, 2008 while New Brunswick grew 3.5 per 1,000 to reach a population of 751,300. For both provinces, growth came from a positive net migratory balance as there was very little or negative natural increase.

On January 1, 2008, the province of Quebec had 7,730,600 residents, resulting in a growth of 7.3 per 1,000. This growth was up slightly from 2006 (6.9 per 1,000) and was the fastest growth rate since 1992. The net loss of interprovincial migrants to Quebec in 2007 (14,400) was the highest loss since 1998, however, this was compensated by the arrival of 45,200 immigrants in Quebec in 2007, much higher than the 7,300 emigrants who left the province. As a consequence of these trends, about half of the growth in this province in 2007 was the result of net international migration and the rest was due to natural increase.

Ontario, the most populous province of Canada, grew at a pace of 9.5 per 1,000 in 2007, up slightly from 9.0 per 1,000 in 2006, to reach 12,861,900 persons. Net international migration remained an important contributor to the growth rate in Ontario although there was a lower net international migration to this province in 2007 (90,700) compared to 2006 (105,400). Except for one year, the share of landed immigrants settling in Ontario has been steadily decreasing since 2001. Despite this decline in immigration, there were far fewer migratory losses with other provinces and territories in 2007 (-17,800) than in 2006 (-32,300). Taken together, migration exchanges accounted for close to two-thirds of the growth in the province in 2007.

Manitoba grew at a rate of 11.0 per 1,000 in 2007 resulting in a population of 1,193,600 on January 1, 2008. This growth was more than double that of 2006 (4.5 per 1,000) and the highest rate since 1983. The higher growth rate was due to more immigrants in 2007, as well as fewer losses from interprovincial migration. In fact, Manitoba had the strongest rate of immigration in Canada in 2007 (9.2 per 1,000), the first time this has occurred in recent history for a province other than Ontario, British Columbia or Alberta. This pattern may reflect Manitoba’s use of the Provincial Nominee Program to select new immigrants. This economic program, developed by Citizenship and Immigration Canada, selects skilled workers who possess training, relevant work experience and language ability to be employed in a particular province.

The growth in Saskatchewan in 2007 (16.5 per 1,000) was up substantially from the previous year (1.9 per 1,000), and was the highest recorded growth since 1975. This strong growth was due primarily to positive net interprovincial migration. Saskatchewan’s net gain of 10,200 people from other provinces and territories was the first positive interprovincial migration since 1984. The oil industry is expanding in Saskatchewan, which could attract workers who might otherwise have gone to Alberta.  Overall, more than four-fifths of the growth in Saskatchewan in 2007 resulted from migratory exchanges and the remainder was attributed to natural increase. In total, there was a population of 1,006,600 residents in Saskatchewan on January 1, 2008, the first time it has surpassed the one million mark since 2001.

British Columbia had the third highest growth among the provinces during 2007 (14.9 per 1,000) to reach a population of 4,414,000. The net gains resulting from interprovincial migration was the highest since 1996, but the largest contributor to growth in British Columbia was the 30,600 net international migrants. In total, net migration contributed more than four-fifths of the growth in this province in 2007, however, the number of immigrants in British Columbia in 2007 was lower compared to the previous year, as it was in Ontario.

Given the low population counts in the territories, even small fluctuations in numbers can cause large changes in the growth rates. In the Yukon territory in 2007, the positive growth (8.6 per 1,000) followed a year of negative population growth (-6.2 per 1,000) in 2006, resulting in a population of 31,200. Although this territory experienced negative net interprovincial migration in 2006, more people moved to the Yukon from elsewhere in Canada than left in 2007. After two years of population decline, growth in the Northwest Territories was positive (6.3 per 1,000) in 2007, resulting in a population of 42,600 residents. This was primarily due to high natural increase and fewer migratory losses to other provinces or territories. Nunavut had the highest growth in the country, increasing 19.9 per 1,000 in 2007, close to double the national growth rate (10.5 per 1,000), and even higher than Alberta (19.5 per 1,000), reaching 31,100 persons on January 1, 2008. Population growth in Nunavut is due exclusively to high natural increase.

Subprovincial population trends

Below the provincial or territorial level, the areas that grew more quickly than the national average between July 1, 2006 and June 30, 2007², as well as the areas that declined during this same time period, are clearly evident from figure 1.2.

Figure 1.2
Population growth rates between July 1, 2006 and June 30, 2007 by census division (CD), Canada

In 2007, many of the most rapidly growing census divisions³ were in the provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as well as around large urban areas such as Toronto or Montréal. Much of the strong growth in areas within Alberta can be attributed to the economy, and the attraction of migrants, often young adults, from other provinces across Canada. Other census divisions grew rapidly as a result of urban sprawl, as was the case for the areas around Montréal.

Some of the census divisions experiencing the largest decreases in population between 2006 and 2007 were located in Newfoundland and Labrador. Population decline in these areas may be attributed to low levels of fertility and the out-migration of young adults to other provinces and territories in Canada, particularly Alberta.

Population growth in census metropolitan areas

As of July 1, 2007, 21,599,700 people or about two-thirds of the population in Canada, lived in one of the census metropolitan areas (CMA).⁴ The census metropolitan area population grew at a pace of 12.2 per 1,000, faster than the nation overall (10.0 per 1,000) during the 2006/2007 time period (table 1.1).⁵

Table 1.1
Population as of July 1, 2007 and components of population growth for Canada and census metropolitan areas

The census metropolitan areas of Calgary and Edmonton in Alberta experienced the largest gains in 2006/2007 (34.9 per 1,000 and 28.3 per 1,000, respectively). On July 1, 2007, Calgary had a population of 1,139,100, slightly ahead of Edmonton (1,081,300 residents). The population increases in these two census metropolitan areas were mainly the result of net interprovincial migration. Calgary had about 16,500 more migrants who came from other provinces than who left, followed by Edmonton (12,000 net interprovincial migrants), reflecting a strong economy in Alberta, largely due to the oil industry. A further 14,800 persons were added to the population in Calgary and 8,900 newcomers to Edmonton during the 2006/2007 time period due to net international migration.

Two census metropolitan areas, Saskatoon and Regina, in the province of Saskatchewan, also grew at a faster pace than did Canada as a whole. Remarkably, the growth in Saskatoon in 2006/2007 (19.8 per 1,000) was more than double that of the preceding year (8.3 per 1,000) which helped the census metropolitan area reach a population of 241,400 on July 1, 2007. Regina grew by 13.8 per 1,000 in 2006/2007 to a total of 201,500 residents. Regina and Saskatoon, along with Edmonton and Victoria, were the only census metropolitan areas to experience positive net migration at all three levels: intraprovincial, interprovincial and international.

In the three largest census metropolitan areas in Canada—Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver, much of the growth could be attributed to international immigration. At 15.8 per 1,000, Canada’s largest census metropolitan area, Toronto, grew much faster than the national figure (10.0 per 1,000). The population reached 5,509,900 on July 1, 2007, meaning that about one person out of six in Canada lived in this census metropolitan area. There were 81,800 more international migrants who came to Toronto in 2006/2007 than who left. This net positive international migration more than offset the loss in Toronto’s migratory balance with other areas within Ontario and the rest of Canada. The second largest census metropolitan area, Montréal, grew at a slower pace of 7.3 per 1,000 in the year prior to July 1, 2007, attaining a population of 3,695,800. Although population losses occurred due to both interprovincial and intraprovincial migration, some of this was recouped as a result of immigration to this census metropolitan area. Growth in Canada’s third largest census metropolitan area, Vancouver, was 12.7 per 1,000 during 2006/2007, reaching a total of 2,285,900 residents. Similar to Toronto and Montréal, growth in Vancouver during this time period was mainly due to immigration.

Only four census metropolitan areas, located in the province of Ontario, declined in population between 2006 and 2007: Thunder Bay (-10.0 per 1,000), Kingston (-4.4 per 1,000), St. Catharines - Niagara (-2.0 per 1,000) and Windsor (-1.2 per 1,000). Net losses through interprovincial migration largely contributed to the decline in these census metropolitan areas, although Windsor also experienced negative net intraprovincial migration.

Age structure

Changes to the age structure since 1972 can be graphically depicted in a population pyramid (figure 1.3). One evident pattern from this figure is the aging of the baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1965). In 1972, this cohort was aged roughly 7 to 26 years and by 2008, this group is in the 43 to 62 year age range. This large “bulge” on the pyramid will continue to shift upward as the baby boomers move into their senior years.

Figure 1.3
Age pyramid of the Canadian population as of January 1, 1972 and 2008

Comparing the 1972 and 2008 pyramids also clearly illustrates the effect on the age structure of the population in Canada of two on-going and long term demographic trends: low fertility and increasing life expectancy. As a consequence of these trends, the proportion of children aged 14 and under decreased dramatically in recent decades while the share of seniors has been increasing. On January 1, 2008, 16.9% of the population was aged 14 and under while 13.5% was aged 65 and over, resulting in 5,593,000 children and 4,475,800 seniors (figure 1.4). In 1972 close to three in 10 persons (28.9%) were children while 8.1% were seniors. This aging of the population, is expected to accelerate into the future, especially from 2011 onward when the first of the large cohort of baby boomers reaches the age of 65. It is expected that the number of seniors will exceed the number of children in Canada by about 2015, regardless of the growth scenario.⁶

Figure 1.4
Proportion of the population aged less than 15 years, 15 to 64 years and 65 years and over in Canada, January 1, 1972 to 2022

Although characterized by an aging population, Canada, along with the United States, is among the youngest of the G8 countries. As of 2007, G8 countries having the oldest populations with roughly one person in five aged 65 and over included Germany, Italy and Japan.⁷

Even though the senior population aged 65 and over in Canada grew at more than double the pace (23.9 per 1,000) in 2007 compared to the overall population (10.5 per 1,000), some subgroups had even faster growth rates. The number of individuals aged 80 and over increased 34.2 per 1,000 in 2007. Furthermore, the population aged 55 to 64, who are at, or near, retirement, grew even more quickly during this same time period (37.6 per 1,000).

The concept of median age, the age at which 50% of the population is older and 50% is younger, also provides a measure of the aging of the population. The median age of the Canadian population as of January 1, 2008 was 39.1 years, up from 38.9 years on the same date in 2007. In comparison, in 1981 the median age was 29.3 years and in 1972, it was 26.3 years.

Provincial and territorial patterns in age structure

Population aging has affected all provinces and territories in Canada to a varying extent. The overall population in the Atlantic provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick) was the oldest in the nation with higher shares of seniors aged 65 and older and lower proportions of the population aged 14 and under compared to Canada as a whole. Contributing to the aging of the population in the Atlantic provinces is a transformation over the course of the twentieth century, from a region characterized by higher than average fertility to the current situation of having the lowest fertility levels in the nation. Each Atlantic province also had a median age that was over 40 years (table 1.2). Newfoundland and Labrador had the oldest median age of all the provinces and territories in 2008 (42.3 years) but in 1981, this province had one of the youngest median ages (25.0 years).

Table 1.2
Percentage of population aged less than 15 years, 15 to 64 years and 65 years and over and median age, Canada, provinces, territories, January 1, 2008

In Quebec, there were fewer children aged 14 and under (15.8%) and more seniors aged 65 and over (14.5%) compared to the nation overall whereas the opposite was the case in Ontario (17.3% and 13.3%, respectively). Consequently, the median age was higher in Quebec (40.9 years) and lower in Ontario (38.7 years) than that of Canada. Over the past 50 years, the province of Quebec experienced rapid aging due to gains in life expectancy and a drop in fertility. The higher share of children in Ontario could be at least partially attributed to high levels of immigration over the past two decades, including female immigrants of childbearing age, who may have contributed to a younger population by giving birth at some point after their arrival.

The three Prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta were all younger than Canada as a whole. Close to one in five persons in these provinces were children aged 14 and under as of January 1, 2008. Based on the median age indicator, Alberta had the youngest population of all the provinces (35.4 years). Interestingly, despite Saskatchewan having one of the highest proportions of children aged 14 and under, this province was also characterized by one of the highest proportions of seniors aged 65 and over (14.8%). The demographic situation in Saskatchewan is due to a combination of high fertility and high life expectancy, but also until recently, significant out-migration of young adults.

Along with the Atlantic provinces and Quebec, British Columbia also had a median age older than that of Canada at 40.2 years, making it the oldest province in western Canada based on this indicator. The smaller share of children aged 14 and under (15.6%), and greater share of seniors aged 65 and over (14.2%) compared to Canada overall are also indicative of an older population in British Columbia. This province has a lower than average fertility combined with a life expectancy that is the highest in the nation.

In the territories, the Yukon had a proportion of children aged 14 and under (17.0%) and a median age (39.0 years) that were close to the national figures, although it had a much lower share of seniors (8.1%). Nunavut and the Northwest Territories are characterized by the youngest populations in Canada, due to a higher fertility and lower life expectancy than for the rest of the nation. Nunavut had the youngest median age in the country as of January 1, 2008 at 23.6 years, followed by the Northwest Territories at 31.2 years. Nunavut’s young population is also reflected by the fact that one in three persons was aged 14 and under (32.9%), the highest proportion of all the provinces and territories and by the lowest share of seniors in the country (3.1%).

Subprovincial age structure trends

Analysing a national map at the level of census divisions provides a visual overview for the areas within Canada which have the highest proportion of seniors aged 65 and over as of July 1, 2007 (figure 1.5).

Figure 1.5
Proportion of population 65 years of age and over as of July 1, 2007, by census division (CD), Canada

Higher proportions of seniors aged 65 and over in a particular area compared to Canada overall can be the result of both shorter term and longer term demographic phenomena. In the shorter term, more seniors could result from the departure of young adults for other areas, the arrival of older adults, or both. Younger persons could be more likely to leave areas where there are few actual or perceived economic opportunities. This pattern of migration contributes to an older population in the areas from which young adults leave and a younger population in the areas of destination. Older adults may be drawn to places with attractive climates, the existence of retirement communities or other amenities which would meet the needs and interests of aging residents. In the longer term, a higher proportion of seniors in the population can also be the result of an extended period of low fertility, particularly following many years of high fertility. This is the current situation in many areas of the Atlantic provinces and Quebec as a consequence of fertility patterns during the last century. This combination of short-term and long-term factors can contribute to a proportion of seniors in a particular area that is higher than the national average.

Population aging in census metropolitan areas

Census metropolitan areas are younger than Canada overall as evidenced by the share of the population aged 65 and over as well as by the median age. At the national level, 13.4% of the population was comprised of seniors as of July 1, 2007 compared to 12.5% for the country’s 27 census metropolitan areas. On the same date, the median age of the population living in the census metropolitan areas was 38.1 years, younger than the median age of the population living in non-CMAs (41.1 years) and for the country as a whole (39.0 years). As in the rest of Canada, the population in the census metropolitan areas is aging, but is doing so more slowly than the non-CMA population. For example, from July 1, 2001 to the same date in 2007, the median age of the census metropolitan area population increased by 1.5 years, while it was 2.7 years higher for the non-CMA population.

Another indicator which reflects the age structure of the population, the proportion of children aged 14 and under actually shows little variation between the census metropolitan area and non-CMA population (about 17% each). However, the 20 to 44 year olds are over-represented in the census metropolitan area populations (37.7%) compared to the non-CMAs (32.0%). The higher proportion of younger adults in census metropolitan areas may be due to the attraction of recent international migrants and internal migrants from non-census metropolitan areas who are pursuing educational or employment opportunities. Thus, this contributes to a younger population in census metropolitan areas overall, primarily due to the presence of younger adults as well as fewer seniors, rather than higher proportions of children. Nevertheless, among the census metropolitan area population there remains wide variation in the proportions of children aged 14 and under and seniors aged 65 and older, as well as median age.

Figure 1.6 shows a population pyramid for the census metropolitan areas with the youngest and oldest populations in Canada. Abbotsford, British Columbia, is the census metropolitan area with the youngest population as of July 1, 2007, meaning it had the largest share of the population comprised of children aged 14 and under (19.5%) of all the census metropolitan areas in Canada. The median age in Abbotsford (36.5 years) was also younger than that of Canada. In contrast, the oldest census metropolitan area, St. Catharines - Niagara in Ontario, had the highest proportion of seniors aged 65 and over during the same time period (17.9%) and a median age of 42.3 years. The Niagara Peninsula, which offers many amenities to seniors and is attractive as a retirement destination, could help to account for the above-average share of persons aged 65 and over in this census metropolitan area.

Figure 1.6
Age pyramid of the youngest (Abbotsford) and oldest (St. Catharines - Niagara) census metropolitan areas in Canada, July 1, 2007

The census metropolitan areas of Trois-Rivières and Saguenay in the province of Quebec also had a high proportion of seniors (17.3% and 15.1%, respectively), as shown in table 1.3. These census metropolitan areas recorded the highest median ages of all census metropolitan areas in Canada: 43.8 years in Trois-Rivières and 43.2 years in Saguenay.⁸ These census metropolitan areas have attracted low numbers of recent immigrants, and have experienced migratory losses of young adults to other regions within Canada.

Table 1.3
Percentage of population aged less than 15 years, 15 to 64 years and 65 years and over and median age, census metropolitan areas, July 1, 2007

Of the three largest census metropolitan areas, both Toronto and Vancouver had shares of the senior population and median ages that were lower than the nation as a whole. In Toronto, the proportion of the population comprised of persons aged 65 and over was 11.3% while the median age was 37.0 years. In Vancouver, 12.3% of the population were seniors and the median age was 38.4 years. A high number of international migrants, who arrived in these census metropolitan areas in 2006 or 2007 and who had a younger median age than the rest of the population, could contribute to a younger population in these census metropolitan areas. The situation in Montréal is closer to the national figures with individuals aged 65 and over accounting for 13.6% of the population and a median age of 39.0 years.

Calgary and Edmonton were among the youngest census metropolitan areas in the country on July 1, 2007. They had the lowest proportions of their populations comprised of seniors aged 65 and over (9.1% and 10.9%, respectively). The two Alberta census metropolitan areas, Calgary (35.5 years) and Edmonton (35.9 years) also had the second and third youngest median ages of all census metropolitan areas, as many young adults came to work in these areas. Saskatoon had 12.0% of the population consisting of seniors and 18.3% who were aged 14 and under, as well as the youngest median age of all census metropolitan areas in Canada (35.2 years), resulting from high fertility and the interprovincial migration of young adults.

Table A-1.1
Population as of January 1 and components of population growth , Canada, provinces and territories, 1981 to 2008

Notes

1. Population Reference Bureau. 2007. 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Washington, D.C.; United States Census Bureau. 2008. International Database. Table 008: Vital Rates and Events.

2. The reference date for the subprovincial sections of this chapter is July 1, 2007 as 2008 population estimates below the provincial or territorial level were not available at the time this report was written.

3. Census division (CD) is the general term for provincially legislated areas (such as county, “municipalité régionale de comté” and regional district) or their equivalents. Census divisions are intermediate geographic areas between the province/territory level and the municipality (census subdivision).

4. A census metropolitan area (CMA) is an area with a population of at least 100,000, including an urban core with a population of at least 50,000. Population estimates for census metropolitan areas in this section are based on 2001 Census boundaries.

5. Statistics Canada. 2008. Annual Demographic Estimates: Census Metropolitan Areas, Economic Regions and Census Divisions, Age and Sex, 2001 to 2006. Statistics Canada Catalogue number 91-214-X. Ottawa.

6. Statistics Canada, censuses of population, 1956 to 2006; and Bélanger, A., L. Martel and É. Caron Malenfant. 2005. Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 2005-2031. Statistics Canada Catalogue number 91-520-X. Scenario 3.

7. Population Reference Bureau. 2007. 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Washington, DC.

8. Statistics Canada. 2008. Annual Demographic Estimates: Census Metropolitan Areas, Economic Regions and Census Divisions, Age and Sex 2002 to 2007. Statistics Canada Catalogue number 91-214-X.