Section 2: Economic regions

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The economic regions (ERs) with the highest growth ratesin the past year

Between July 1, 2009 and July 1, 2010, 24 of 76 economic regions experienced demographic growth higher than that of Canada as a whole (11.5 per thousand). Among the 10 fastest growing ERs, more were located in the western part of the country. Once again this year, this situation confirms the vitality of Western Canada's economic regions. However, some ERs in eastern and northern Canada gained ground, breaking through to the top 10 ERs with the most sustained population growth.

Although in 2008/2009, four Alberta ERs were on the list of the 10 fastest growing regions, this situation changed in 2009/2010 with Calgary being the only Alberta ER remaining (with growth of 18.5 per thousand). Economic regions in the Yukon, Quebec and British Columbia now hold the positions lost by the Alberta ERs.

With demographic growth of 31.5 per thousand, the South Central ER in Manitoba stands out, capturing the top place among fastest growing ERs. It was followed by two northern ERs, Nunavut (31.4 per thousand) and Yukon (25.6 per thousand). As was the case last year, the populations of the Saskatchewan ERs of Saskatoon–Biggar (23.6 per thousand) and Regina–Moose Mountain (20.4 per thousand) are expanding rapidly.

The Lower Mainland–Southwest ER, which encompasses Vancouver, experienced growth of 22.1 per thousand between July 1, 2009 and July 1, 2010.

The ERs of Laval (19.1 per thousand), Southeast in Manitoba (19.1 per thousand) and Northeast in British Columbia (18.4 per thousand) round out the list of fastest growing ERs.

The economic regions with the highest rates of decline inthe past year

During 2009/2010, 14 of 76 economic regions saw declines in their population. Mostly located in the eastern part of the country, almost all of these ERs had a negative balance in their subprovincial and interprovincial migration. They also often experienced more deaths than births.

Seven of the 10 ERs with the highest rates of decline were in the Atlantic Provinces. Two of Nova Scotia's ERs reported population declines between July 1, 2009 and July 1, 2010: South (-10.2 per thousand) and Cape Breton (-7.9 per thousand). They ranked first and fifth, respectively, among ERs with the highest rates of decline. A similar observation can be made in New Brunswick where two ERs saw their populations shrink during the same period. The ERs of Campbellton–Miramichi (-9.3 per thousand) and Edmundston–Woodstock (-8.9 per thousand) ranked second and third on the list. Lastly, Newfoundland and Labrador had three ERs on the list of 10 ERs with the strongest decline in population: South Coast–Burin Peninsula (-5.9 per thousand), West Coast–Northern Peninsula–Labrador (-4.3 per thousand), and Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay (-2.0 per thousand).

The three other ERs making the list were Parklands in Manitoba (-8.5 per thousand), and Ontario's Northeast (-4.4 per thousand) and Windsor–Sarnia (-4.2 per thousand).

Main sources of growth

In 28 of the 76 ERs (36.8%) in Canada, natural increase was the primary source of growth. International migration was the main reason for population increases in 26 of the 76 ERs (34.2%) and interprovincial and subprovincial migration were the driving forces behind demographic growth in 10 ERs each (13.2%). Lastly, two ERs (2.6%) recorded declines in each of the four components. Although growth in a majority of ERs can be attributed primarily to natural increase, those ERs account for only 23.2% of the Canadian population. Most of Canada's population (51.5%) resides in the ERs where growth was led mainly by international migration.

International migration: main source of growth in several ERs encompassing major Canadian cities

Many of the ERs where international migration plays a key role in growth include a census metropolitan area (CMA). Thus, the cities of Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver are all within an ER in which net international migration is the main growth factor. This source also accounts for the largest portion of demographic growth in the ERs of Halifax, Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula, Winnipeg, Regina–Moose Mountain and Saskatoon–Biggar, to name a few. All these ERs encompass a CMA.

As for the other ERs in which growth is mainly due to international migration, if they do not include a CMA within their area, they often encompass a census agglomeration (CA). This is the case for the ERs of Prince Edward Island (Charlottetown), Annapolis Valley (Kentville), Fredericton–Oromocto (Fredericton), Stratford–Bruce Peninsula (Stratford), Southwest in Manitoba (Brandon) and Yukon (Whitehorse), all of which contain a city of at least 25,000 inhabitants.

In a small number of ERs, circumstantial explanations offer insight into why international migration is the main source of growth. Some ERs located outside of urban centres experienced a decline in all components except international migration. It is relatively unusual for net international migration to become negative given the rarity of emigration. Thus, immigration is the primary source of growth in the ERs of Cape Breton, South in Nova Scotia, Campbellton–Miramichi and Edmundston–Woodstock. For these ERs, this situation is not due to a huge influx of immigrants—quite the contrary, to the weakness of the other components.

In general, the ERs where immigration is the driving force behind growth share the characteristic of being among the most cosmopolitan in Canada. The presence of many immigrants in these ERs perpetuates the migration to these essentially urban regions.

Interprovincial migration: primary growth factor in several ERs bordering neighbouring provinces

For some of the ERs where population increase is attributed primarily to interprovincial migration, their geographic location makes it easier to attract interprovincial migrants. For other ERs that owe a significant portion of their growth to interprovincial migration, specific economic situations drive these population changes.

There is no doubt that the proximity to a neighbouring province explains why net interprovincial migration of certain ERs is their main source of growth. This is the case for the ER of Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine, which borders New Brunswick. In fact, 43% of the interprovincial migrants who move to this ER are from that Maritime province. The same situation exists for two ERs in British Columbia, which border Alberta, namely Thompson–Okanagan and Kootenay. For these two ERs, close to two thirds of interprovincial migrants come from Alberta. Similarly, 52% of interprovincial migrants who settle in the Saskatchewan ER of Swift Current—Moose Jaw come from neighbouring Alberta. Several factors may explain why these migrations occur in one direction rather than another. Positive fiscal and economic climates or employment or education opportunities are some factors that might explain the direction of some interprovincial population migration.

In the case of the ERs of South Coast–Burin Peninsula, Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay and Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake, strong interprovincial migration is due primarily to the influx of oil industry workers. Economic growth stemming from recent natural resources operations in northern Alberta resulted in significant population movements. Because of the difficulty young people from the Atlantic Provinces have finding employment, many have moved to the Alberta ER of Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake. Newfoundland and Labrador, in particular, has for several years supplied a large portion of the migrants to that ER. Slightly more than 40% of interprovincial migrants to the Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake ER come from one of the four Atlantic Provinces, with half of those migrants from Newfoundland and Labrador. In this context, it may seem surprising that the main source of population growth in two ERs in Newfoundland and Labrador is also interprovincial migration. This paradoxical situation can be explained by the fact that despite a moderate exodus of workers to Alberta, these ERs are able to attract enough migrants from elsewhere in the country to offset the loss. More specifically, these two Newfoundland and Labrador ERs owe a significant portion of their interprovincial migration gains to their exchanges with Ontario. Furthermore, while still tangible, the migration of workers from the Atlantic Provinces to Alberta has slowed in recent years.

Subprovincial migration: largest source of growth in ERs experiencing urban sprawl and in certain medium-size metropolitan areas

Subprovincial migration represents the key growth factor for two types of ERs. First, one of the characteristics of several of these ERs is the presence of a medium-size urban centre within their territory. They each encompass a census metropolitan area of less than one million inhabitants. In general, these CMAs constitute intermediate urban centres, meaning that they are not the most populous centres in their respective provinces. The Moncton–Richibucto and Capitale-Nationale ERs are good examples: they host the second-largest city in their provinces, respectively Moncton and Québec, and owe the largest portion of their growth to subprovincial migration. Similarly, the Ontario ERs of Kingston–Pembroke, Muskoka–Kawarthas and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie each contain at least one large CMA, but that CMA is smaller than the city of Toronto. All of these ERs are attractive to the population, especially young people, who move there in large numbers from remote regions of their respective provinces. The medium size of these ERs means that they suffer less from a loss of migrants through urban sprawl, unlike the three large ERs of Toronto, Lower Mainland–Southwest and Montréal. Furthermore, when there is an exodus in these three ERs to the suburbs, people often relocate to a neighbouring ER, given the relatively smaller area and high population density of the large ERs. In contrast, in such ERs as Moncton–Richibucto, Capitale-Nationale and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie, their larger territory and more modest population density mean that the exodus to the suburbs most frequently occurs within the same ER.

Second, this category includes a few ERs located on the immediate periphery of major cities. In fact, the demographic growth of the Laval, Lanaudière and Laurentides ERs has been due mostly to subprovincial migration. All three ERs are located on the outskirts of the Montréal ER. The substantial contribution of subprovincial migration to the ERs neighbouring the Montréal ER is therefore explained in large part by urban sprawl, particularly since the Montréal ER is one of the most densely populated in the country. Like these ERs, the dominance of subprovincial migration in Manitoba's Interlake ER can be attributed to urban sprawl from the Winnipeg CMA.

Natural increase: driver of demographic growth in ERs where the age structure promotes births and limits deaths

The key feature of ERs where the majority of growth results from gains through natural increase is generally their age structure. The vast majority of these ERs have at least one of the characteristics described below.

First, many ERs have a median age below the national average (39.7 years). Second, the proportion of the population consisting of youth under 18 years of age is often higher than that of Canada as a whole (20.3%). These two characteristics attest to the youth of these ERs and illustrate one of the consequences of a high fertility rate, which largely explains the high contribution of natural increase to the increase in these ERs. Moreover, the proportion of adults of childbearing age in these ERs is often higher than the Canadian average. An example of ERs that meet all of these criteria are Calgary, Red Deer and Athabasca—Grande Prairie—Peace River.

In addition to meeting the conditions described above, some ERs also have a large Aboriginal population, which has one of the highest fertility rates in Canada. The Northwest Territories, Nord-du-Québec, Nunavut and Northern Saskatchewan ERs are a few examples.

Natural increase plays a crucial role in the population increase of certain ERs that do not necessarily have a young median age and where the share of the population aged 0 to 17 years is not significantly higher than the national average. The defining feature of these ERs is the small proportion of persons aged 75 years and older in the total population. These ERs experience fewer losses due to deaths compared to Canada as a whole, which enables them to maintain a positive balance in terms of natural increase. The ERs of Abitibi–Témiscamingue, Outaouais, Montérégie, and Côte-Nord in Quebec, and West Coast—Northern Peninsula–Labrador and Cariboo are in this sub-group.

In general, we find that among ERs where natural increase represents the driving factor behind growth, ERs in Western Canada have both the fertility and mortality characteristics that predispose them to this situation. In contrast, ERs in Central and Eastern Canada make this list mainly because of the smaller proportion of persons 75 years and older, which reduces losses attributable to deaths.

The youngest economic regions

For the purposes of this article, median age was used as an indicator of the aging of a population. The median age is an age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".

The 10 ERs with the lowest median age are almost all located in zones with a high Aboriginal population, often found in the northern part of the country. With a median age of 23.7 years as of July 1, 2010, the Northern Saskatchewan ER is the youngest region in Canada. The Nunavut (24.6 years) and Northern Manitoba (26.3 years) ERs complete the top three Canadian ERs with the lowest median age.

In addition to the fact that many of these ERs are north of the 55th parallel, we also find that most of these ERs are in western provinces. The Nord-du-Québec ER (28.9 years) is the only region in Eastern and Central Canada that made the list of the country's 10 youngest ERs.

The high percentage of Aboriginal communities in these ERs is a determining factor in maintaining a young population. Aboriginal communities generally stand out from the population as a whole because of their higher fertility rates.

The oldest economic regions

Although certain ERs in Canada's western and northern regions are notable because of their youth, the 10 ERs with the highest median age are found almost exclusively in Eastern or Central Canada. The Atlantic Provinces stand out with half of the 10 oldest ERs located in that part of the country.

With a median age of 48.2 years, the Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER retained its place as the oldest ER in Canada. The Southern Nova Scotia (47.1 years) and Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay (47.0 years) ERs hold second and third place, respectively, in this national ranking.

One of the characteristics of many of the ERs that top this list is the larger proportion of their non-metropolitan population compared to Canada as a whole. The proportion of persons 65 years or more who live in these ERs is high and there are more deaths than births in 9 of these 10 ERs. These ERs also experience subprovincial migration deficit, often caused by a significant exodus of young people to the urban centres of their provinces.

Figure 2.1: Population pyramid for the ERs with the highest median age (Gaspésie - Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Quebec) and with the lowest median age (Northern, Saskatchewan) for July 1, 2010

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