Section 1: Census metropolitan areas
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On July 1, 2012, 24,285,200 people lived in a census metropolitan area (CMA), or slightly more than two-thirds (69.6%) of the Canadian population. By comparison, 67.5% of Canada’s population lived in a CMA in 2002, which indicates a slight increase over ten years.
Between July 1, 2011 and July 1, 2012 (2011-2012), the population growth rate was far higher in CMAs (14.8 per thousand) than in non-CMAs (3.9 per thousand). For Canada, the population growth rate was 11.4 per thousand during this period. Among the CMAs that posted the largest increases, six were in Western Canada, two in Central Canada and two in the east.
The Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver CMAs alone had a total population of 12.4 million on July 1, 2012. This means that slightly more than half of the Canadian population living in a census metropolitan area lived in one of these three CMAs.
CMA growth unequal from east to west
The population growth rates of CMAs in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were higher than the national average (11.4 per thousand).
In British Columbia, only the Vancouver CMA (15.3 per thousand) registered a higher growth rate than Canada.
By contrast, only eight of the 24 CMAs in Eastern and Central Canada (Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces) had growth rates above 11.4 per thousand. Three of them also had growth rates above the national average for CMAs (14.8 per thousand), namely the CMAs of Toronto (17.0 per thousand), Moncton (16.1 per thousand) and St. John’s (15.2 per thousand). The Toronto CMA’s population growth was due primarily to net international migration and secondarily to natural increase. The growth of the Moncton and St. John’s CMAs was largely due to their positive net intraprovincial migration, and to a lesser extent, to their net international migration and natural increase.
For a third consecutive year, Saskatoon recorded the strongest growth of any CMA in Canada. Its population increased by a rate of 40.4 per thousand; no CMA has registered such strong annual growth in more than 15 years. The CMAs of Regina (31.5 per thousand) and Calgary (31.4 per thousand) had the second and third largest population increases in Canada.
Saskatchewan CMAs continue to post strong growth
Saskatchewan’s two CMA, Saskatoon and Regina, saw a substantial increase in their population during the 2011-2012 period, progressing compared with 2010-2011. In 2011-2012, they still ranked first and second nationwide in population growth. The substantial growth of these two CMAs contrasts with the situation ten years ago, when Saskatoon and Regina were among the slowest growing CMAs in Canada. This turnaround is explained by recent trends in international migration and interprovincial migration. Since 2001-2002 in these two CMAs, net international migration has increased nearly tenfold and net interprovincial migration is now positive after reaching record lows ten years ago. International migration is responsible for half of the population increase (+6,100) in Saskatoon and two-thirds (+4,800) in Regina.
Benefitting from the strongest growth rate in Canada, the Saskatoon CMA saw its population grow by 11,200 to 284,000 on July 1, 2012. The Regina CMA had a population of 226,300 on the same date, up 7,000 from the previous year.
Alberta’s CMAs among the fastest growing in Canada
Alberta’s CMAs continued to post strong population increases, with substantially higher growth rates in 2011-2012 than in 2010-2011. Calgary saw it population grow by 40,500 in 2011-2012, almost double the increase of 24,500 recorded in 2010-2011. The same was true for Edmonton, whose increase of 33,400 was significantly larger than the previous year’s growth of 20,400.
In 2011-2012, these two CMAs ranked third and fourth among the CMAs with the strongest growth in Canada. The growth of Alberta’s CMAs (31.4 per thousand in Calgary and 27.5 per thousand in Edmonton) is approximately twice as strong as for Canadian CMAs in general (14.8 per thousand).
Net international migration is the main factor of population growth for both Calgary and Edmonton. The strong growth of these CMAs is also due to their natural increase, which exceeds that of any other Canadian CMA. Interprovincial migration also contributed to the Alberta CMAs’ strong population growth. Indeed, the highest rates of interprovincial migration were recorded in the CMAs of Edmonton (7.0 per thousand) and Calgary (5.8 per thousand).
Population decline for the Greater Sudbury CMA
Population growth varied widely across Canada’s CMAs. The average growth rate for Canadian CMAs was 14.8 per thousand, with some CMAs coming in above or below the average. Only one CMA, Greater Sudbury, saw its population decrease in 2011–2012 (-1.3 per thousand).
The decline in this Ontario CMA’s population was due to a net loss in internal migration exchanges. Although there were small gains in natural increase (0.7 per thousand) and international migration (0.5 per thousand), these were not enough to offset the CMA’s deficit in net interprovincial and intraprovincial migration (-1.4 per thousand and -1.2 per thousand respectively).
More than nine immigrants in ten settle in a metropolitan area
During the 2011-2012 period, CMAs received 92% of immigrants to Canada. However, while only a low proportion of immigrants settle elsewhere than in a CMA, that proportion increased over the past decade, going from 5% in 2001-2002 to 8% in 2011-2012. The proportion of immigrants settling outside CMAs is far below their demographic weight (30% of Canada’s population lives outside a CMA).
Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver are the main magnets for immigrants. In 2011-2012, approximately 60% of all immigrants to Canada settled in one of these CMAs. In the last ten years, the proportion of immigrants heading for the Toronto CMA has steadily declined, going from 48% to 31% between 2001-2002 and 2011-2012. Other CMAs, smaller and generally on the Prairies (Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary and Edmonton) are now attracting a large proportion of immigrants. In fact, between 2001-2002 and 2011-2012, the share of immigrants settling in these five CMAs almost tripled, going from 7% to 20%.
The CMAs are aging, but more slowly than the rest of Canada
On July 1, 2012, the median age for the population living in one of Canada’s 33 CMAs was 38.9 years, compared with 40.0 years for Canada as a whole.
During the period from July 1, 2002 to July 1, 2012, the median age of the CMA population went from 37.0 years to 38.9 years. The median age in non-CMAs was 43.1 years on July 1, 2012, compared with 38.9 years on July 1, 2002, an increase of 4.2 years. The increase in the median age for Canada as a whole during the same period was 2.4 years.
Figure 1.1: Population pyramid for CMA and non-CMA population for July 1, 2012.
These trends indicate that although aging affects all parts of Canada, it is not occurring uniformly throughout the country. For example, the population was aging faster in non-CMAs than in CMAs, as shown by the fact that the increase in the median age was twice as large in non-CMAs as in CMAs.
For the purposes of this article, median age was used as an indicator of the aging of a population. The median age is an age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".
Alberta and Saskatchewan CMAs have the youngest populations
Just as in demographic growth, there also appeared to be an east-west divide in the relative age of CMAs: the CMAs with younger populations were mostly in Western Canada, while the CMAs with older populations were generally in the eastern part of the country.
On July 1, 2012, Saskatoon was the CMA with the youngest population, with a median age of 34.9 years, compared with 40.0 years for Canada as a whole. After Saskatoon, the other CMAs with the lowest median age are Calgary (36.0 years), Regina (36.0 years), Edmonton (36.2 years) and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (37.4 years).
Trois-Rivières and Saguenay are the two oldest CMAs in Canada
The two oldest CMAs in Canada are Trois-Rivières and Saguenay, with a median age of 45.3 years. Among the other older CMAs are Peterborough (44.3 years), Kelowna (43.8 years) and St. Catharines-Niagara (43.7 years). These CMAs have the largest proportions of persons aged 65 and over in Canada. The share of persons age 65 and over is between 18% and 20% for each of the above-mentioned CMAs, compared with 14% for CMAs overall.
Saguenay, Thunder Bay and St. Catharines-Niagara continue to age rapidly
In addition to having relatively high median ages, the Saguenay, Thunder Bay and St. Catharines-Niagara CMAs are also noteworthy for the pace of their aging. Between July 1, 2002, and July 1, 2012, the median age of these CMAs increased by 5.0 years in Saguenay, 4.6 years in Thunder Bay and 3.9 years in St. Catharines-Niagara.
These three CMAs all have low rates of natural increase. Indeed, deaths exceeded births in St. Catharines-Niagara and Thunder Bay, while the numbers of births and deaths were almost equal in Saguenay. Furthermore, the cumulative total of net migration between 1996-1997 and 2011-2012 is negative in Saguenay and Thunder Bay. Since a substantial portion of migrants are persons of working age, negative net migration can further accentuate the aging of the population.
Saskatchewan CMAs are still among the youngest in Canada
Between July 1, 2002 and July 1, 2012, the median ages of Saskatchewan’s two CMAs remained relatively stable. During the past ten-year period, the net increase was only 0.2 years for Saskatoon, while for Regina, the median age declined 0.2 years. By comparison, the median age for Canada as a whole increased by 2.4 years during the same period.
In each of these two CMAs, births greatly exceeded deaths (3,600 births versus 1,700 deaths in Saskatoon; 2,900 births versus 1,700 deaths in Regina). Moreover, these CMAs had positive net migration at all three levels: international (+6,100 in Saskatoon and +4,800 in Regina), interprovincial (+1,200 in Saskatoon and +300 in Regina) and intraprovincial (+2,100 in Saskatoon and +700 in Regina). All these factors can contribute to slower population aging.
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