Section 1: Census metropolitan areas Section 1: Census metropolitan areas

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On July 1, 2015, 25,164,100 people were living in a census metropolitan area (CMA). The proportion of the population living in a CMA continued to increase to 70.2%, or 7 in 10 Canadians. Canada’s three largest CMAs alone—Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver—were home to more than one in three Canadians (35.4%).

Between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015 (the 2014/2015 period), population growth was much higher in CMAs (11.8 per thousand) than in non-CMAs (1.2 per thousand). For the fifth consecutive year, CMAs in Alberta and Saskatchewan posted four of the five highest population growth rates.

During the last year, the population of the Ontario portion of the Ottawa–Gatineau CMA broke the 1 million threshold (1,001,200), while the population of the Vancouver CMA passed the 2.5 million mark (2,504,300).

Preliminary estimates indicate that, of all the CMAs in Canada, the highest population growth in 2014/2015 was in Kelowna (31.3 per thousand). The Saint John CMA posted the largest decrease (-4.3 per thousand). Overall, the growth in CMAs was slightly lower during the 2014/2015 period (11.8 per thousand) than during the 2013/2014 period (14.5 per thousand)—a trend similar to that observed for Canada as a whole.

CMA growth unequal from east to west

In the Atlantic provinces, Moncton (12.8 per thousand) was the only CMA with a population growth higher than that of all the CMAs (11.8 per thousand). The population growth rate in the Halifax CMA (10.3 per thousand) and St. John’s CMA (9.5 per thousand) were similar to the national average (8.6 per thousand). However, the largest population decrease in a CMA occurred in Saint John, New Brunswick, which had a population growth rate of -4.3 per thousand, or a decrease of approximately 500 people.

In Quebec, the highest population growth rate was in the Quebec portion of Ottawa–Gatineau (12.6 per thousand). Population growth in the five other Quebec CMAs was lower than that of all CMAs in Canada. As well, the population of Saguenay decreased slightly (-2.5 per thousand) during the last annual period.

In Ontario, Oshawa (12.7 per thousand) and Toronto (12.6 per thousand) were the only two of the 15 CMAs in the province whose population growth was higher than that of all the country’s CMAs. In three Ontario CMAs, the population decreased in 2014/2015: Thunder Bay (-1.6 per thousand), Peterborough (-2.1 per thousand) and Greater Sudbury (-2.6 per thousand).

Similar to the demographic trends observed in the provinces, the CMAs in the Prairies stood out on account of their strong population growth. Despite a significant slowdown in their population growth over the last year compared with 2013/2014 levels, CMAs in Alberta and Saskatchewan continued to record some of the highest growth in Canada. The CMAs of Calgary (23.7 per thousand) and Edmonton (23.5 per thousand) had the second and third highest population growth, respectively, followed by the CMAs of Saskatoon (20.0 per thousand) and Regina (18.5 per thousand).

In British Columbia, the Kelowna CMA (31.3 per thousand) had the highest population growth in Canada, and the population of Abbotsford–Mission (14.0 per thousand) also increased at a faster pace than that of all the CMAs.

Western CMAs continue to post the strongest population growth in the country

The seven CMAs with the highest population growth were all located in provinces west of Ontario. However, the main factors behind their growth vary from one region to another. For example, gains in interprovincial and intraprovincial migration were the main reason for the increase of 6,100 people in the Kelowna CMA, which had a population of 197,300 on July 1, 2015.

In the two Alberta CMAs, natural increase and interprovincial migration each accounted for approximately one-third of the population growth. On July 1, 2015, Calgary’s population was 1,439,800, up 33,800, and Edmonton’s was 1,363,300, up 31,700. Net international migration remained positive (6.0 per thousand in Calgary and 3.2 per thousand in Edmonton), but was lower than that of all CMAs (7.0 per thousand) for the first year since 2010/2011.

In all other CMAs in Western Canada except the Victoria CMA, most of the population growth came from international migration. The growth of the Winnipeg CMA’s population was almost entirely the result of this factor; furthermore, this CMA had the highest net international migration increase in Canada (+16.5 per thousand). This factor was also the main driver of population growth in the CMAs of Saskatoon and Regina, which had net international migration increases of 10.9 per thousand and 12.0 per thousand, respectively. By contrast, almost all of the population growth in the Victoria CMA came from internal migration gains.

Population decreases in some CMAs and in non-CMAs in several central and eastern Canadian provinces

Although Canada’s overall population grew, as did the populations of most CMAs, some regions nevertheless saw their populations decrease.

For the fourth consecutive year, the Saint John CMA had the lowest population growth rate in Canada, with a decrease of 500 people (-4.3 per thousand) in the last year. Gains from natural increase (+100) and net international migration (+400) were not enough to offset net population losses due to interprovincial migration (-900) and intraprovincial migration (-100).

Elsewhere in Canada, the population decrease in Saguenay (-400) was mainly due to intraprovincial migration, while decreases in the Ontarian CMAs of Greater Sudbury (-400), Peterborough (-300) and Thunder Bay (-200) were mainly due to negative net interprovincial migration and, to a lesser degree, more deaths than births also contributed to the losses.

In non-CMAs, negative population growth was recorded in Newfoundland and Labrador (-3,300 people, or -10.6 per thousand), Nova Scotia (-3,700 people, or -7.0 per thousand), and New Brunswick (-2,000 people, or -4.2 per thousand). The population decreases were the result of a combination of factors, including interprovincial migration, negative intraprovincial migration and more deaths than births.

The pace of population growth in Canada’s three largest CMAs close to the rate for all CMAs

Canada’s three largest CMAs had a total combined population of 12.7 million on July 1, 2015, or more than one in three Canadians (35.4%).

Of Canada’s three largest CMAs, Toronto posted the strongest population growth in 2014/2015. With an increase of 76,500 people (12.6 per thousand), the population of Canada’s largest CMA was 6,130,000. However, despite a growth rate above the CMA average, Toronto’s population growth in 2014/2015 was the lowest recorded since 1990/1991 (10.4 per thousand). This was mainly on account of a slowdown in growth from international migration. Although this factor remained the main driver of population growth in this CMA, the growth rate from international migration recorded in the last year (11.0 per thousand) was down slightly from 2013/2014 (13.1 per thousand). In the Montréal CMA in 2014/2015, the population grew by 32,700 people (8.1 per thousand) to 4,060,700. Lastly, the population of the Vancouver CMA was 2,504,300 on July 1, 2015, up 28,600 (11.5 per thousand) from the previous year.

In each of Canada’s three major CMAs, international migration was the main driver of population growth. However, the proportion of immigrants who settled in one of the three largest CMAs is declining. In 2014/2015, 56% of immigrants who settled in Canada (134,300) chose to live in the Toronto, Montréal or Vancouver CMA, compared with 72% in 2004/2005. This decrease primarily benefitted the five Prairie CMAs (Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary and Edmonton), which are receiving an increasing proportion of immigrants (23% in 2014/2015 compared with 9% in 2004/2005).

Lastly, the three largest CMAs in Canada saw migration losses within the rest of their province, specifically Toronto (-22,800), Montréal (-3,600) and Vancouver (-4,400). These migration losses primarily benefited the surrounding non-CMA areas. The Toronto CMA also recorded significant migration losses to the benefit of the neighbouring Oshawa and Hamilton CMAs. A detailed age analysis of net intraprovincial migration shows that losses were the most pronounced among persons aged 30 to 64 years and children under 18 years of age.

Population of CMAs younger than in the rest of Canada

As of July 1, 2015, the median age of the population residing in a CMA was 39.3 years. By comparison, the median age of the non-CMA population was higher (43.9 years).

The age structure of CMA and non-CMA populations differs mainly in terms of the demographic weight of the age groups above 15 years, as the age pyramid in Figure 1.1 shows. On one hand, the group of persons aged 65 and older accounted for 18.9% of the non-CMA population, compared with 14.9% of those in CMAs. On the other hand, Figure 1.1 shows that persons aged 20 to 49 years represented a larger portion of the population of CMAs than of non-CMAs. This is the result of young adults migrating from non-CMAs to CMAs, as well as a greater influx of immigrants into CMAs—nearly two-thirds of the immigrants who settled in a CMA were aged 20 to 49 years.

The most recent population estimates for Canada^Note 1 indicated that persons 65 years and older outnumbered children aged 0 to 14 in 2014/2015. However, in 15 CMAs, there were more children than persons aged 65 years and older on July 1, 2015.

The CMAs with the youngest populations are in Western Canada

On July 1, 2015, the four Canadian CMAs with the lowest median age were in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Saskatoon had the lowest median age, at 34.8 years. By comparison, this is almost six years less than the median age for Canada (40.5 years). The Abbotsford–Mission CMA in British Columbia also stood out for its young population, posting the largest proportion of persons under 15 years (18.1%). Lastly, the Calgary CMA was also one of the youngest CMAs in Canada. In addition to having the fourth lowest median age (36.3 years), this CMA had the lowest proportion of persons 65 years and older (10.4%), as well as the second largest proportion of persons 0 to 14 years (17.8%).

Trois-Rivières CMA has the oldest population

With respect to median age, on July 1, 2015, the oldest population was in the Trois-Rivières CMA (46.0 years), followed by the St. Catharines–Niagara CMA (45.4 years) and the Saguenay CMA (45.3 years).

Of all the CMAs in Canada, the Trois-Rivières CMA also had the highest proportion of persons 65 years and older, at 21.6%. The Peterborough and St. Catharines–Niagara CMAs had the second and third highest proportions of persons aged 65 and older (21.2% and 21.0%, respectively).

Figure 1.2 compares the age pyramid for the Abbotsford–Mission CMA, where the proportion of youth aged 0 to 14 years is the highest, with the pyramid for Trois-Rivières, which has the largest proportion of persons 65 years and older. The top of the pyramid, which is wider for Trois-Rivières than for Abbotsford–Mission, indicates that the age structure is older in the Quebec CMA. The wider base of the Abbotsford–Mission CMA pyramid indicates that children account for a larger proportion of the population in this CMA. The relatively large size of this age group is in part due to a high birth rate—the fifth highest for a CMA—and positive net migration among children aged 0 to 14.

Fastest aging CMAs in Quebec and Ontario

Even though the populations of CMAs are younger than in the rest of Canada, these populations are also aging. The median age of the population of CMAs increased 1.6 years between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2015. As well, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older rose from 12.2% to 14.9% during the same period, an increase of 2.7 percentage points.

An increase in the median age combined with an increase in the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was observed in almost all of Canada’s CMAs. The three biggest increases in the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older between 2005 and 2015 were recorded in Quebec CMAs, specifically Saguenay and Trois-Rivières (+5.5 percentage points each), and Québec (+4.9 percentage points). In addition, the largest increases in median age over the past decade were in the Ontario CMAs of Windsor (+4.7 years) and St. Catharines–Niagara (+4.3 years).

Lastly, the five Prairie CMAs stood out on account of their slower population aging than in the rest of Canada. In each of these CMAs, the increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 years between 2005 and 2015 did not exceed +1.4 percentage point (compared with +3.1 percentage points for Canada) and the change in median age over the same period was +1.1 years at most (compared with +1.9 years for Canada).

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