Section 1: Total population

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This section primarily presents the preliminary population estimates for Canada, the provinces and territories on July 1, 2015, along with a concise analysis of the various components of population growth.

Slowdown in Canada’s population growth

On July 1, 2015, Canada’s population was estimated at 35.9 million, up 308,100 in the past year (2014/2015). The country’s population growth rate was 0.9%, 1  down slightly from 2013/2014 (+1.1%) and the lowest growth observed since 1998/1999 (+0.8%). However, despite this slowdown, Canada’s population growth remained the strongest among G7 2  countries. Canada’s rate surpasses that of the United States (+0.7%), the United Kingdom (+0.2%), France (+0.4%), Germany (+0.1%), and Italy and Japan, whose populations remained relatively stable.

Natural increase is positive across the country

Population growth at the national level is based on two factors—natural increase 3  and net international migration 4  while provincial and territorial population estimates also factor in migration exchanges between provinces and territories. Over the past year, natural increase was estimated at 120,700, based on the difference between 388,700 births and 268,100 deaths according to preliminary estimates. The number of people added by natural increase in the past year (2014/2015) fell 8,400 over the previous year (2013/2014). This phenomenon is explained by a faster increase in the number of deaths than births, and is linked mainly to population aging, since a greater proportion of the population falls into the ages where the intensity of mortality is higher.

Population growth due mainly to international migration

Net international migration is an increasingly important driver of Canada’s population growth, and since 1995/1996, has consistently been the main source of that growth. 5  In 2014/2015, net international migration was responsible for 60.8% of the population growth in Canada. By comparison, net international migration accounted on average for 34.7% of population growth in the 1980s. For the year ending June 30, 2015, net international migration was estimated at 187,400 people, down 27.7% from the previous year (+259,100) and at its lowest level in terms of numbers since 2002/2003.

More than 85% of immigrants settle in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia

In the year ending June 30, 2015, 239,800 immigrants took up residence in Canada, the first time in six years that this number has fallen below 250,000 and the lowest level since 2006/2007 (238,100). In 2014/2015, the immigration rate in Canada was estimated at 0.7%. In recent decades, the regional distribution of immigration in Canada has changed in favour of the western provinces and to the detriment mainly of Ontario, which has seen its share of immigrants decline over the past decade. In 2014/2015, Ontario continued to be the province that welcomed the most immigrants to the country with 37.3%, compared with 49.0% on average over the past 20 years.

The number of non-permanent residents is declining

Net non-permanent residents is the variation in the number of non-permanent residents on a specific date between two years. In 2014/ 2015, the number of net non-permanent residents (NPR) was negative (-10,300), indicating that the number of NPRs decreased between July 1, 2014 and July 1, 2015. This is the first time this situation has been seen since 1997/1998 (-4,000) and is the largest loss in NPRs since 1994/1995 (-14,200).

Emigration 6  was estimated at 42,000 for the year ending June 30, 2015 and continued to be concentrated mainly in four provinces: Ontario (38.8%), British Columbia (31.6%), Alberta (12.3%) and Quebec (11.7%).

More than four out of five Canadians live in four provinces

On July 1, 2015, almost 31 million Canadians (86.3%) lived in four provinces: Ontario (38.5%), Quebec (23.0%), British Columbia (13.1%) and Alberta (11.7%). Ontario remained Canada’s most populous province, 13.8 million residents. The province with the smallest population was Prince Edward Island, with 146,400 residents. With 8.3 million residents, Quebec continued to rank second in terms of population size in Canada, followed by British Columbia with 4.7 million and Alberta with 4.2 million people.

Population growth in Alberta slows

Compared with 2013/2014, population growth 7  in the past year was weaker nationally and in most provinces, especially Alberta. However, population growth was more sustained in 2014/2015 in Nunavut (from +1.8% to +2.3%) and in Nova Scotia (from -0.1% to +0.1%). Preliminary estimates 8  for 2014/2015 show that population growth was negative in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.2%) and New Brunswick (-0.1%) and strongest in Nunavut (+2.3%) and Alberta (+1.8%). It was also more sustained in Manitoba (+1.0%), Saskatchewan (+1.0%), British Columbia (+1.0%) and Yukon (+1.2%) than nationally (+0.9%). In relative terms, Alberta posted the biggest slowdown in its population growth compared with 2013/2014, falling one percentage point from +2.8% to +1.8%. Based on preliminary estimates, this slowdown is the result of a significant decrease in net international migration (from +44,900 in 2013/2014 to +13,100 in 2014/2015) and, to a lesser degree, a decrease in Alberta’s gains through its migratory exchanges with the other provinces and territories (from +35,400 in 2013/2014 to +28,900 in 2014/2015).

Newfoundland and Labrador records negative natural increase

At the national level, the natural increase rate was 0.3% in 2014/2015, its lowest level since 2004/2005. In general, natural increase was weaker in the Atlantic provinces and stronger in the Prairie provinces and the territories. For a second straight year, Newfoundland and Labrador recorded a negative natural increase (-0.1%), indicating that this province had more deaths (5,000) than births (4,400) in the past year. Natural increase was also negative on an annual basis for the first time in Nova Scotia (-0.1%), based on preliminary estimates. Nunavut again recorded the strongest rate of natural increase in Canada at +1.9%, which can be attributed to its young population and one of the highest fertility rates in the country. Among the provinces, Alberta continues to have the strongest rate of natural increase (+0.8%), a position it has held consistently since 1980/1981.

International migration: Key driver of growth in several provinces

In 2014/2015, net international migration was the main driver of population growth in Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Canada’s net international migration rate was 0.5% in 2014/2015, down from the level estimated in the previous year (+0.7%) and the lowest level since 1998/1999 (+0.4%). In 2014/2015, the net international migration rate was higher than the national average (0.5%) in four provinces: Manitoba (+1.2%), Prince Edward Island (+1.0%), Saskatchewan (+0.8%) and Ontario (+0.6%). In relative terms, Alberta is the province that recorded the biggest drop in its net international migration, from +1.1% in 2013/2014 to +0.3% in 2014/2015. This situation is the result of a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents (-21,200 in 2014/2015) in the last year, compared with an increase in the previous year (+9,000 in 2013/2014) and, to a lesser extent, fewer immigrants (41,100 in 2013/2014 compared with 39,400 in 2014/2015).

Two provinces saw gains in internal migration

At the provincial and territorial levels, population growth is also the result of migration between the provinces and territories. For the year ending June 30, 2015, preliminary estimates show that net interprovincial migration was positive for only two provinces: Alberta (+28,900 or +0.7%) and British Columbia (+12,400 or +0.3%). However, migration gains in these two provinces evolved differently in the last year, with British Columbia recording an increase of 31.0% and Alberta seeing a decline of 18.3% compared with 2013/2014. In the past year, Prince Edward Island and Quebec recorded their biggest losses in interprovincial migration in absolute terms since 1980/1981 and 1997/1998 respectively.

Biggest migration flows involve Alberta

The most important migration flows (20.0% higher) are showed in the following circular chart, 9  in which each province or territory is assigned a colour. Origins and destinations are represented by the circle’s segments. Flows have the same colour as their origin, the width indicates their size and the arrow their direction. The largest interprovincial migrations in the past year occurred from Ontario to Alberta (+26,000 or 0.2%), from Alberta to British Columbia (+24,500 or +0.6%), from British Columbia to Alberta (+22,500 or +0.5%) and also, from Quebec to Ontario (+17,700 or +0.2%). In these migratory exchanges with Alberta, British Columbia gained more migrants than it lost, resulting in a net gain of 2,100. In relative terms, the highest interprovincial migration rates 10  are those into Alberta from Saskatchewan (+0.9%), Prince Edward Island (+0.7%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+0.6%).

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