According to selected scenarios, there would be between 40.1 and 47.7 million
people in Canada by 2036 and between 43.0 and 63.8 million
by 2061, in comparison to 33.7 million in 2009. According
to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would reach 43.8 million
by 2036 and 52.6 million by 2061.
According to the medium-growth scenario, natural increase would remain
positive over the whole projection period, the number of deaths never exceeding
the number of births. Only in the low-growth scenario would natural increase
become negative, a situation that would occur by 2030/2031.
Migratory increase would be the main driver of population growth in
all scenarios.
Age structure of the Canadian population
Population aging in Canada would accelerate between 2010 and 2031,
a period during which all baby boomers would reach age 65. Population
aging would continue after 2031, but at a slower pace.
According to all selected scenarios, the proportion of seniors aged 65 years
or over would continue to increase in the future. This group would represent
between 23% and 25% of the population by 2036 and between 24%
and 28% by 2061, compared to 14% in 2009.
By 2036, the number of seniors would be more than double the number
observed in 2009 and would vary between 9.9 and 10.9 million
persons. By 2061, their number would vary between 11.9 and 15.0 million.
According to all selected scenarios, the number of people aged 65 years
or over would surpass the number of children aged less than 14 years
or under. This shift, a first in the history of the Canadian population, would
occur between 2015 and 2021.
According to all selected scenarios, the proportion that represents
the working-age population among the total population would decrease progressively
up to 2036 to reach about 60% and would then remain fairly
stable. In 2009, the proportion that represents the working-age population
was 69%.
In 2009, for every 100 people in the working-age population,
there were 24 children aged 14 years or under and 20 people
aged 65 years or over. According to the medium-growth scenario,
there would be 26 children and 39 seniors per 100 working-age
people in 2036.
According to the medium-growth scenario, the population aged 80 years
or over would be 2.6 times higher in 2036 compared to 2009,
and 3.9 times by 2061. It could reach 3.3 million
persons by 2036 and 5.1 million by 2061.
According to the scenarios, median age would vary between 42 and 45 years
by 2036 and between 42 and 47 years by 2061,
compared to 40 years in 2009.
Population of the provinces and territories
Ontario and British Columbia would show an annual population growth
higher than the national average in all six scenarios. Therefore, their demographic
share among the Canadian population would increase up to 2036.
In each scenario, all provinces and territories would experience an
increase in their population, except Newfoundland and Labrador where a lower
population in 2036 than in 2009 would be observed under
the low-growth scenario or some medium-growth scenarios.
Age structure of the provinces and territories
The highest median ages in Canada by 2036 would be in the
Atlantic provinces regardless of the selected scenarios, while the lowest
median age would be in Nunavut and Northwest Territories.
The gap between the highest and lowest provincial median age would vary
between 8 and 10 years by 2036. This gap is slightly
higher than the one observed in 2009, at about 7 years.
