Introduction

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Canadian demography has undergone many changes recently. First, the fertility of all Canadian provinces has increased since 2005, as in many other industrialized countries. Second, the origin of immigrants to Canada has changed, with the share of immigration from China and India declining slightly in favour of immigration from other continents, especially the Americas. Also, the number of non-permanent residents admitted to Canada has substantially increased in recent years. And finally, some provinces that traditionally lost ground in their migratory exchanges with the other provinces are now registering positive net interprovincial migration.

In this context, updating the population projections for Canada, the provinces and the territories is especially important. As their base population, these new projections use Statistics Canada's population estimates as of July 1^st, 2009, and they cover the period from 2009 to 2036 for the provinces and territories and from 2009 to 2061 for Canada as a whole. These projections are available by age, sex and province or territory of residence and for seven growth scenarios.

The first part of the document describes the method, assumptions and scenarios developed for these new projections. The second part presents the main results of many scenarios of future change, providing a plausible range of possibilities regarding the future course of Canada's population. The analysis, which deals with the size, growth and age structure of the population, is presented first at the national level, and then at the level of the provinces and territories. The sections that follow include an analysis of the sensitivity of the results to the different projection assumptions and a review of past projections. Lastly, tables presenting the results of the seven projection scenarios are appended (Statistical tables).

Other, more detailed data are also available in other products, especially on CANSIM on the Statistics Canada website, or on a CD-ROM available from Statistics Canada's Demography Division. Finally, customized assumptions and scenarios are always available on request. Those interested should contact the client services unit of Statistics Canada's Demography Division.