Introduction

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The Canadian population appears to be stable in many respects: life expectancy is gradually increasing, fertility has been hovering around 1.7 children per woman for the last 40 years and the annual number of immigrants has remained more or less unchanged for a decade. However, the population is actually undergoing significant changes which are likely to have profound, lasting effects on Canadian society. The aging of the baby-boom cohort will have many repercussions as this cohort reaches the ages that generally separate working life from retirement. Sustained immigration, combined with constant low fertility, is leading to rapid diversification of the Canadian population, which demographer David Coleman has called the “third demographic transition”. The number of temporary immigrants, both workers and students, is growing, and access to permanent immigration is being made easier for them. In addition, the geographic distribution of the population is being transformed by the mobility of Canadians, as some provinces, particularly Alberta and more recently Saskatchewan, are attracting relatively large numbers of people from the other provinces. These changes are altering the country’s demographic composition and its distribution, and are therefore likely to have economic, political and social repercussions.

In this context, the population projections are highly relevant and useful, in that they provide an opportunity to think about changes that the country will probably experience in the future. The starting point for this edition of Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories is the July 1, 2013 population estimates. The projections cover a 25-year period (up to 2038) for the provinces and territories, and a 50-year period (up to 2063) for Canada as a whole. In contrast to what has been done previously, the assumptions and methods used to calculate the parameters for the projections are described in a separate report, entitled Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-620-X). Thus, this report contains only analysis of results and a summary of assumptions.

This report is divided into four sections. Section 1 summarizes the projection assumptions and scenarios. The second section contains the analysis of the results for Canada. Section 3 presents the results for the provinces and territories including a dedicated summary for each. The conclusion of the report is presented in the fourth section.