Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038)

By the National Population Projections team
Report prepared by Nora Bohnert, Jonathan Chagnon and Patrice Dion
Statistics Canada

The data in columns "Immigration� and "Net emigration� of tables 2.3 and 3.6 to 3.18 have been corrected.

Preface

Statistics Canada has been publishing population projections for Canada, the provinces and the territories roughly every five years, following the census cycle, for the past 40 years. These publications have always generated great interest, both within the general public and among people who depend on them for planning government services or programs, managing businesses or studying populations. Recently, the acceleration of the Canadian population’s aging process as the first baby boomers turn age 65, and the resulting labour and government service planning requirements, have made the projections even more valuable. This edition of the Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories maintains the tradition of providing users with detailed results by age and sex for all Canadian provinces and territories. The results are based on the latest population estimates and on assumptions that were developed from both historical and recent demographic trends with the advice of experts in demography.

Many innovations have been made in this edition of Statistics Canada’s population projections. The Demographic Analysis and Cohort-Component Projections Section of Statistics Canada’s Demography Division recently conducted a review of its methods in order to take advantage of the latest developments in the field of population projections. Consequently, numerous changes were made in both the methods and the assumption-building process, including the following:

  • a consultation process that was extended to include many experts in demography and population studies;
  • a new method of projecting interprovincial migration;
  • a new method of projecting fertility;
  • the use of distinct fertility rates for non-permanent residents;
  • measures for taking account of the residual component present in intercensal estimates.

These recent additions and changes are all likely to enhance the relevance, transparency and quality of the projections. To thoroughly document the projection methods and provide more detail on the innovations, the chapters that customarily contain descriptions of the methodology and assumptions are now published in a separate report, entitled Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-620-X).

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