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Aboriginal identity population in general
North American Indian population
Métis population
Inuit population

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This section presents the results of the population projections for the Aboriginal population as a whole and then, in separate subsections, for each Aboriginal identity group: North American Indians, Métis and Inuit. Although each subsection deals with population growth, age structure and geographic distribution, the analysis seeks to bring out the particularities of how each Aboriginal identity group may evolve between now and 2031. The fact is that, far from being a homogeneous population, the Aboriginal population is composed of groups that are quite distinct as to their identity, their culture, their history and—likely related to these distinguishing features—their demography. Readers are also invited to consult Appendix 1 to 3, which summarize the main results for each of the groups.

Aboriginal identity population in general

In 2006, the number of persons declaring an Aboriginal identity was estimated at approximately 1.3 million persons, compared to roughly 900,000 10 years earlier in 1996. Among them, 785,000 were North American Indians, 404,000 were Métis and 53,000 were Inuit.

Overall, these populations accounted for some 3.9% of the Canadian population. In comparison, the corresponding proportion at the same time was 1.7% in the United States, 2.4% in Australia and 14.6% in New Zealand (Maori).Note 1 Like the Aboriginal populations of Australia, the Aboriginal population in Canada grew more rapidly than the non-Aboriginal population between 1996 and 2006.Note 2

Since international migration is low for Aboriginal peoples in Canada, that increase is essentially due to strong natural increase, favoured by a young age structure and high fertility, as well as changes in the reporting of identity or intragenerational ethnic mobility (see Box 1).

The projection results show that the proportion of Aboriginal people would continue to grow between now and 2031, reaching between 4.0% and 5.3% according to the scenarios developed for the purpose of these projections. The Aboriginal population would then number between 1.7 million and 2.2 million (Figure 2). Also, within this population, North American Indians would continue to be in the majority, with their numbers ranging between 1,071,000 and 1,248,000, followed by the Métis at 506,000 to 863,000 and the Inuit at 73,000 to 77,000.

Figure 2 Aboriginal identity population, Canada, 1996 to 2031, four projection scenarios

Figure 3 shows that during the period extending from 2006 to 2031, the Aboriginal population as a whole would have an average annual growth rate ranging between 1.1% (scenario 2 - no ethnic mobility and converging fertility) and 2.2% (scenario 3 - constant ethnic mobility and constant fertility). In all cases, the growth would be greater than that of the non-Aboriginal population despite the fact that it is assumed that the latter population would benefit from important international migratory gains up to 2031, which is not the case for Aboriginal populations which are assumed to have nil net international migration.

The average annual growth rate would also vary considerably from one Aboriginal group to another. For North American Indians, it would be between 1.2% and 1.9%; for Métis, between 0.9% and 3.1%; and for Inuit, between 1.3% and 1.5%, as will be seen below.

Figure 3 Average annual growth rate of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal identity populations, Canada, 2006 to 2031, four projection scenarios

A comparison of the results of the different projection scenarios shows how sensitive the future growth of the Aboriginal population as a whole might be to intragenerational ethnic mobility, that is, to changes in the reporting of identity over a lifetime. Under the assumption that ethnic mobility will continue between now and 2031 at the levels estimated from 1996 to 2006 (scenarios 3 and 4), the increase would be one percentage point higher than what it would have been if there were no intragenerational ethnic mobility (scenarios 1 and 2). In absolute numbers, the average annual increase in the Aboriginal identity population would be between 40,000 and 42,000 in the scenarios projecting continued intragenerational ethnic mobility, whereas it would be between 17,000 and 19,000 in the other scenarios.

The projection results also show that if the fertility gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations were reduced by half between now and 2031 (scenarios 2 and 4), the average annual growth rate of the Aboriginal population would be approximately 0.1 percentage point lower than if fertility remained constant at the levels measured in 2006. This convergence, which would ultimately lead to a reduction of approximately 0.3 children per woman among Aboriginal peoples, would translate into approximately 2,100 fewer births per year on average over the period (data not shown).

Age structure of the Aboriginal population

While the Aboriginal population is known to be younger than the non-Aboriginal population, less well-known is the fact that it is aging. Between 2001 and 2006, Aboriginal peoples' median age increased by about two years, going from 24.7 years to 26.6 years. Median age is the age that separates a population into two equal groups, one younger and the other older. The aging of the Aboriginal population is mainly due to a decrease in fertility over recent decades and an increase in life expectancy.

Table 6 Age structure indicators of the population by Aboriginal identity, Canada, 2006 and 2031, four projection scenarios

The results of these projections show that this aging of the Aboriginal population would continue over the next 20 years under all of the scenarios (Table 6 and Figure 4). By 2031, the median age of Aboriginal peoples in general would rise to between 35.0 years under Scenario 1 (no ethnic mobility and constant fertility) and 36.7 years under Scenario 4 (constant ethnic mobility and converging fertility). Thus, it appears that aging would be more rapid if Aboriginal peoples' fertility was to decrease and ethnic mobility were to continue. The aging impact of intragenerational ethnic mobility (which is slight) is basically due to the fact that net population gains are mainly at the expense of an older population, essentially the Canadian-born non-Aboriginal population.

Despite this aging, the Aboriginal population would continue to be younger than the non-Aboriginal population according to all scenarios. As may be seen from the data in Table 6, the median age of Aboriginal peoples would be between 6 and 8 years less than that of the non-Aboriginal population, whose median age would be approximately 43 years. Also, the percentage of seniors would remain lower for Aboriginal peoples than for non-Aboriginal people, while the percentage of youths under 15 years of age would remain considerably higher for Aboriginal peoples, even under the assumption of a gradual convergence of fertility.

Figure 4 Aboriginal identity population by age group and sex, Canada, 2006 and 2031, scenario 1 (no ethnic mobility and constant fertility)

In 2031, the populations of specific Aboriginal identity groups would continue to have different age structures. The Inuit population would remain younger than the North American Indian population, which would in turn remain younger than the Métis population.

Geographic distribution of the Aboriginal population

The geographic distribution of the Aboriginal population throughout Canada differs from that of the non-Aboriginal population. In 2006, people with an Aboriginal identity were generally overrepresented in the western part of the country and in the territories, and underrepresented in the rest of Canada. As a consequence, the proportion of Aboriginal people was higher in the western provinces and in the territories (Table 7). According to the scenarios of these projections, this situation would remain unchanged in 2031.

As was the case in 2006, Saskatchewan and Manitoba would have the largest proportion of Aboriginal people among the provinces. Between 21% and 24% of the population of Saskatchewan and between 18% and 21% of the population of Manitoba would have an Aboriginal identity in 2031. The proportion was close to 16% in each of those provinces in 2006. The three territories would also continue to be a place with a strong concentration of Aboriginal populations. Thus, in 2031, the proportion of the population having an Aboriginal identity would be between 22% and 23% in Yukon, between 51% and 52% in the Northwest Territories and between 85% and 86% in Nunavut. As observed in 2006, Prince Edward Island, Quebec and Ontario would have the lowest proportions of Aboriginal people within their population in 2031, regardless of the scenario considered.

In 2006, Aboriginal people (34%) were also proportionally less likely to live in a census metropolitan area (CMA) than non-Aboriginal people (69%). In 2031, between 36% and 40% of Aboriginal people would live in a CMA, compared to nearly three persons in four for non-Aboriginal people. Therefore, regardless of the scenario considered, the majority of Aboriginal persons would continue to live outside CMAs.

It is important to note that Aboriginal peoples' geographic distribution varies from one Aboriginal group to another. North American Indians and Métis live mainly in Ontario, the Prairie provinces and British Columbia. On the other hand, unlike the Métis, a large proportion of North American Indians live on Indian reserves. Also, a larger proportion of North American Indians than of Métis live outside CMAs. As for the Inuit, the great majority of them (80%) live in Inuit Nunangat regions (see Box 1). The geographic distribution of each of the groups will be described in more detail in the sections that follow.

Table 7 Population counts and proportion of persons with an Aboriginal identity by province and territory of residence, Canada, 2006 and 2031, four projection scenarios

If the situations and trends selected as assumptions in the different scenarios were to prove correct, the percentage of persons with an Aboriginal identity would also continue to vary considerably from one CMA to another (Figure 5). In 2031, if ethnic mobility were to continue, five CMAs would have a population in which Aboriginal people would comprise more than 10%: Thunder Bay, Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon and Greater Sudbury. The fact that these CMAs are in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Western Ontario reflects the provincial distribution described above. However, it should also be noted that overall, the interregional migration of Aboriginal peoples is more favourable to all of these CMAs, at the exception of Greater Sudbury, than is the migration of non-Aboriginal people.

According to the two scenarios that assume a complete halt in intragenerational ethnic mobility starting in 2006, six CMAs would have a population in which Aboriginal people accounted for less than 1% in 2031, namely Moncton, Montreal, Québec, Sherbrooke, Guelph and Toronto, whereas in the two scenarios calling for ethnic mobility to remain at the levels observed between 1996 and 2006, only Toronto would be below this threshold.

Figure 5 Proportion of persons with an Aboriginal identity by census metropolitan area, Canada, 2006 and 2031, four projection scenarios

North American Indian population

In 2006, approximately 785,000 persons identified as North American Indians. They accounted for 2.4% of the Canadian population and constituted the largest Aboriginal identity group, ahead of the Métis.

Between 1996 and 2006, the North American Indian population grew on average 2.3% per year; more rapidly than the non-Aboriginal population, which increased by less than 1% per year. This growth was driven by high fertility and an age structure that was younger and therefore more conducive to births and less conducive to deaths, as well as population gains through changes in ethnic affiliation during a lifetime.

According to the projection results, the North American Indian population would continue to grow in the coming years (Figure 6). In 2031, it would stand at between 1.1 million according to Scenario 2 (no ethnic mobility and converging fertility) and 1.2 million according to Scenario 3 (constant ethnic mobility and constant fertility) and would constitute between 2.5% and 3.0% of the Canadian population according to these same scenarios. In all the scenarios, the North American Indian population would remain larger than the Métis and Inuit populations.

Between 2006 and 2031, the average annual growth rate of the North American Indian population would be between 1.2%, under the assumption of their fertility moving toward convergence with that of non-Aboriginal people combined with a lack of ethnic mobility, and 1.9% if fertility and ethnic mobility were to remain at the levels observed recently in Canada (Figure 7).

Figure 6 North American Indian identity population, Canada, 1996 to 2031, four projection scenarios

Figure 7 Average annual growth rate of North American Indian identity population and non-Aboriginal population, Canada, 2006 to 2031, four projection scenarios

In all cases, the North American Indian population would grow at a faster pace than the non-Aboriginal population. This means that even if intragenerational ethnic mobility were to cease and fertility were to decline in the coming years, the growth of the North American Indian population would continue to exceed that of non-Aboriginal people, for whom most of the increase would come from international migration.

Natural increase would remain the main driver of the growth of the North American Indian population according to all scenarios, at least until 2031. However, natural increase would decline in importance over time in that deaths could be expected to increase more rapidly than births, an inevitable corollary to the aging that the North American Indian population could experience in the coming decades, as will be seen further on.

In turn, the net population gains from intragenerational ethnic mobility could add an average of approximately 0.5 percentage points per year to the growth of the North American Indian population between now and 2031. This would constitute slightly more than 30% of this group's population growth. However, this component could decline in importance over time, primarily owing to the relative stagnation of the main population likely to make an ethnic transfer in the direction of North American Indians, namely Canadian-born non-Aboriginal persons not belonging to a visible minority group.

Age structure of the North American Indian population

In 2006, North American Indians as a population were younger than the Métis and non-Aboriginal populations but older than the Inuit population. To illustrate, their median age of 25 years was approximately four years lower than that of the Métis but three years higher than that of the Inuit. To better understand these results, it should be kept in mind that North American Indians have higher fertility than the Métis but lower fertility than the Inuit, while their life expectancy is lower than that of the Métis but higher than that of the Inuit.

According to the scenarios developed in this projection exercise, the North American Indian population, like the rest of the population, would experience a gradual aging between now and 2031. The median age of this population would rise to between 33 and 35 years in 2031. The proportion of seniors within this population would also rise, while the proportion of young persons would decline (Figure 8).

The rate at which this aging could occur would be more rapid under the assumption of fertility converging with that of non-Aboriginal people. The resulting decrease in births, by reducing the number of young people, would lead to a median age slightly more than one year higher than if fertility was to remain at 2006 levels. The continuation of intragenerational ethnic mobility flows would also have an aging effect, with net population gains occurring at a higher age on average than that of the North American Indian population. However, this effect would be limited, since the median age would then be about half a year higher compared to the scenarios where changes in the reporting of identity during a lifetime are assumed to cease.Note 3

Despite this aging, the North American Indian population would remain younger than the Métis and non-Aboriginal populations in all of the scenarios.

Figure 8 North American Indian identity population by age group and sex, Canada, 2006 and 2031, scenario 1 (no ethnic mobility and constant fertility)

Geographic distribution of North American Indians

According to 2006 Census data, the majority of North American Indians were living in Ontario and the Western provinces. In fact, more than four North American Indians in five were living in those provinces. In 2031, that distribution would remain practically unchanged.

Furthermore, in 2006, 30% of North American Indians were living in a census metropolitan area. In 2031, that proportion would be between 32% and 34% and would thus be slightly higher than in 2006. The proportion would increase most rapidly in the scenarios in which ethnic mobility continues at the levels estimated between 1996 and 2006. This result reflects the fact that the net population gains from intragenerational ethnic mobility registered by the North American Indian population are larger within CMAs than outside them, or in other words, in the regions where most of the non-Aboriginal population born in Canada not belonging to a visible minority group resides.

Table 8 Population counts and proportion of North American Indians by province and territory of residence, Canada, 2006 and 2031, four projection scenarios

At the regional scale, the CMAs whose population comprises the largest proportions of North American Indians are located generally in the Western provinces and Ontario. Accordingly, Thunder Bay, Brantford,Note 4 Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg CMAs would be those with the largest proportions of North American Indians in 2031, with at least 5% each in all the scenarios (data not shown).

At the other extreme, Toronto would continue to be the CMA with the smallest proportion of North American Indians, with less than half of one percent according to all the scenarios. As was the case in 2006, the North American Indian populations would be concentrated in some regions outside census metropolitan areas, regions where the majority of this population would live in 2031. Thus, between 23% and 25% of the population of Manitoba living outside Winnipeg would have a North American Indian identity, while in all areas of Saskatchewan other than Regina and Saskatoon the corresponding proportion would be between 23% and 24%. The Northwest Territories, in which there are no CMAs, would have a sizable proportion of North American Indians within its population, with more than three persons out of ten both in 2006 and 2031.

Indian reservesNote 5

One of the distinguishing characteristics of North American Indians is their geographic distribution, with a large proportion (47% in 2006Note 6), for historical reasons, living on Indian reserves (see Box 1). Most but not all Indian reserves are located outside of census metropolitan areas. In 2006, 361,000 persons self-identifying as North American Indians were living on reserve. A small number of persons not reporting a North American Indian identity (approximately 50,000) were also living on reserve in 2006.

According to the results of these projections, the North American Indian population living on reserve would continue growing throughout the projection period. By 2031, it would reach between 511,000 under the scenario of no migration on reserves and approximately 585,000 under the two scenarios that assume constant fertility and a continuation of internal migration patterns (scenarios 1 and 3). These population would comprise respectively 47% and 53% of the North American Indian population as a whole.

The scenario most favourable to the growth of the North American Indian population living on reserve differs from the least favourable scenario only in its assumption of internal migration. This shows the importance that this component could have in the future. Natural increase would nevertheless remain an important factor in the growth of the North American Indian population living on reserve, as shown by the fact that these populations would increase by more than 42% if they were augmented only by the excess of births over deaths between now and 2031.

Finally, the projection results show that the on-reserve North American Indian population could increase in almost all provinces during the projection period, although at different ratesNote 7 (Figure 9). It could even almost double in Saskatchewan if fertility remained constant and internal migration were maintained between now and 2031.

Figure 9 North American Indian identity population living on reserve by province, Canada, 2006 and 2031, five projection scenarios

Métis population

In 2006, the Métis population stood at 404,000, almost double the number ten years earlier. During the period from 1996 to 2006, the Métis were the fastest growing Aboriginal identity group, with an annual growth rate averaging 6.7%. This rate, which exceeds the maximum growth rate of 5.5% that it is theoretically possible to obtain in the absence of immigration (Guimond, 1999; Guimond, 2003), cannot be explained solely by the traditional components of population growth, namely births and deaths, especially since the fertility rate of the Métis is below the replacement level (which is currently around 2.1 children per woman). The only explanation for this is ethnic mobility (see Box 1), primarily intragenerational, which was especially favourable to the Métis identity population in Canada during the recent period.

In the coming years, the Métis population would continue to grow, but there is considerable uncertainty as to the pace of this growth, since it will depend very heavily on whether recent trends in ethnic mobility continue (Figures 10 and 11). In 2031, the Métis population would reach barely more than 500,000 according to the scenarios that assume no intragenerational ethnic mobility, but would rise to more than 850,000 if ethnic mobility was to be maintained. In the latter case, 37% of the Métis population would, in 2031, consist of persons who had acquired that identity by changing their ethnic affiliation after 2006.

A convergence of fertility toward that of non-Aboriginal populations would have only a marginal impact on the future Métis population, since their fertility is already at levels similar to those of the non-Aboriginal population.

Figure 10 Métis identity population, Canada, 1996 to 2031, four projection scenarios

Figure 11 Average annual growth rate of Métis identity and non-Aboriginal populations, Canada, 2006 to 2031, four projection scenarios

According to the two scenarios in which intragenerational ethnic mobility would cease in 2006, the annual growth rate of the Métis population from 2006 to 2031 (approximately 0.9% according to both scenarios) would not only be lower than those of North American Indians and Inuit, but it would also be slightly lower than that of the non-Aboriginal population (1.0%), since the latter population would benefit from the strong contribution of international migration in all of the scenarios selected for the purpose of these projections. However, according to the two scenarios mentioned above, natural increase would remain higher than for the non-Aboriginal population, owing to slightly higher fertility, a younger age structure and the contribution of intergenerational ethnic mobility (data not shown).

If intragenerational ethnic mobility were to continue, the average annual growth rate would be 3.1% on average from 2006 to 2031. Ethnic mobility would then, on average, account for nearly three-quarters of the increase in the Métis population during this period.

Age structure of the Métis population

In 2006, the Métis population, like the North American Indian and Inuit populations, was younger than the non-Aboriginal population. The median age of Métis (29.4 years), while 10 years younger than that of non-Aboriginal people (39.4), was higher than that of North American Indians (25.3) and Inuit (22.0).

In the coming years, the Métis population would remain younger than the non-Aboriginal population but would age considerably (Figure 12). The median age of Métis would gradually rise to approximately 39 years according to all of the scenarios chosen for these projections. The proportion of persons aged 65 and over would go from 5% in 2006 to about 18% in 2031, while the proportion of young persons under 15 years of age would decline, reaching between 17.6% and 19.4% in 2031 compared to 24.6% in 2006.

The projected age structure in 2031 would be similar according to all of the scenarios developed. In all cases, the Métis population would continue to be older than the North American Indian and Inuit populations.

Figure 12 Métis identity population by age group and sex, Canada, 2006 and 2031, scenario 1 (no ethnic mobility and constant fertility)

Geographic distribution of the Métis population

In 2006, nearly nine Métis in 10 (87%) were living in the Western provinces and Ontario; in 2031, that distribution would remain nearly identical, according to all of the projection scenarios.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan were, in 2006, the two provinces with the largest proportions of Métis within their population. This would still be the case in 2031 regardless of the scenario considered. Those proportions would range between 6% and 9% in Manitoba and between 6% and 7% in Saskatchewan, respectively. As in 2006, Quebec would be the province with the lowest proportion of Métis in 2031, at less than 1% in all the scenarios (Table 9).

Table 9 Population counts and proportion of Métis by province and territory of residence, Canada, 2006 and 2031, four projection scenarios

Census metropolitan areas

In 2006, 45% of the 404,000 Métis were living in one of the 33 census metropolitan areas, a much larger proportion than for North American Indians, and larger still compared to the Inuit. In 2031, the proportion would be between 48% and 50%.

In 2031, Métis would comprise at least 5% of the population of five CMAs (Figure 13). These are Ontario's westernmost CMAs (Thunder Bay and Greater Sudbury) and the CMAs of Manitoba (Winnipeg) and Saskatchewan (Regina and Saskatoon). Conversely, two major immigration centres, Montreal and Toronto, would continue to be the CMAs with the lowest proportions of Métis in 2031, with 0.4% or less according to all the scenarios.

Figure 13 Proportion of persons with a Métis identity by census metropolitan area, Canada, 2006 and 2031, four projection scenarios

Inuit population

In 2006, of the 1.3 million persons who identified as Aboriginal people, approximately 53,000, or 4.1%, reported being Inuit (Figure 14). Between 1996 and 2006, the Inuit population grew more than two times faster than the non-Aboriginal population, even though they do not benefit from net population gains from intragenerational ethnic mobility as was the case for Métis and North American Indians.Note 8 In fact, the Inuit, of all the Aboriginal identity groups, had the largest natural increase, relatively speaking.

Figure 14 Inuit identity population, Canada, 1996 to 2031, two projection scenarios

Between 2006 and 2031, the Inuit population would grow at a steady pace and could reach between 73,000 according to the converging fertility scenario (Scenario 2) and 77,000 according to the constant fertility scenario (Scenario 1). Since the Inuit's fertility gap in relation to the non-Aboriginal population is the largest for any Aboriginal group, they would be impacted more than the Métis and North American Indians by a convergence of fertility with that of non-Aboriginal people. A gradual decrease of 50% in the fertility gap between the two groups would translate into approximately 150 fewer Inuit children per year on average from 2006 to 2031 or approximately 15% fewer births in comparison to the number that would result from maintaining fertility at a constant level (data not shown).

Figure 15 Average annual growth rate of Inuit identity population and non-Aboriginal population, Canada, 2006 to 2031, two projection scenarios

Despite the fact that the two scenarios shown do not assume either international migration or intragenerational ethnic mobility for the Inuit, and therefore assume that Inuit population growth would be solely due to the interplay of births and deaths, the Inuit population would grow at a more rapid rate than the non-Aboriginal population between now and 2031 (Figure 15). This is a continuation of past trends. The average annual growth rate would be between 1.3% and 1.5% during the period from 2006 to 2031, compared to 1.0% for non-Aboriginal people. It would also be higher than the rates for North American Indians and Métis if these groups ceased in 2006 to benefit from the ethnic mobility phenomenon. This is because the Inuit's rate of natural increase would remain the highest of the three Aboriginal identity groups.

Age structure of the Inuit population

In 2006, the Inuit were the youngest Aboriginal identity group with a median age of 22.0 years, nearly three years lower than that of North American Indians (25.3). This reflects a demography characterized over a long period by high fertility and high mortality, both of which are higher than those of all other groups projected (see Section 2).

A quarter of a century later, in 2031, the Inuit population, like the North American Indian and Métis populations, would have aged (Figure 16), but would remain younger than the other Aboriginal identity groups as well as the non-Aboriginal population. Thus, among the Inuit, the proportion of young persons aged 0 to 14 would decline between the beginning and the end of the projection period, going from 34% in 2006 to a value between 23% and 26% in 2031, while the proportion of persons aged 65 and over could more than double, reaching between 8% and 9% depending on the assumptions selected. The Inuit population would age more rapidly under the assumption of converging fertility; its median age would reach 32.3 years in 2031 compared to 30.6 years if fertility were to remain at the recent level.

Figure 16 Inuit identity population by age group and sex, Canada, 2006 and 2031, scenario 1 (no ethnic mobility and constant fertility)

Geographic distribution of the Inuit population

The Inuit population stands out from the rest of the population, including the other Aboriginal groups, in its geographic distribution within Canada. According to the 2006 Census of Population, slightly more than three-quarters of the Inuit in Canada (78%), or nearly 42,000 persons, resided in one of the four regions of Inuit Nunangat (see Box 1). Although the Inuit population is projected to grow relatively rapidly in the coming years, this would have little effect on its geographic distribution. According to the results of the two projection scenarios, 80% of the Inuit population would live in Inuit Nunangat in 2031, almost the same proportion as observed 25 years earlier (Table 10).

Table 10 Population counts and proportion of Inuit in selected regions, Canada, 2006 and 2031, two projection scenarios


Notes

  1. Data are from: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006 Data profile: DP-5, acessed using American Fact Finder; Austrilian Bureau of Statistics, 2006 Census tables, Cat. No. 2068.0; Statistics New Zealand, Quick Stats about Culture and Indentity.
  2. For purposes of comparability, the historical analysis presented here does not extend earlier than 1996, the year of the first census for which data on Aboriginal identity was released by Statistics Canada.
  3. It should be noted here that another factor, taken into account in all of the scenarios, would have a "rejuvenating" influence on the age structure of the North American Indian population: intergenerational ethnic mobility, which is generally favourable to this group. Since there are more children with a North American Indian identity who are born of a mother with another identity than children with another identity who are born of a North American Indian mother, this phenomenon results in a net gain for North American Indians, contributing to the youthfulness of this population group. This phenomenon has a similar effect for the Métis.
  4. The results for the Brantford area should be interpreted with great caution, since in 2006 a sizable portion of the population of that area was estimated using a model and then imputed into the file that constituted the basis for these projections (see Section 1). This is because the population of Six Nations (Part) 40, an Indian reserve located in the Brantford CMA, was not enumerated in 2006. More information on incompletely enumerated reserves is available on the Statistics Canada website: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/ref/rp-guides/rp/coverage-couverture/cov-couv_p12-eng.cfm#a12_2_3.
  5. This section reports results for the population living in the provinces only.
  6. The proportions of North American Indians living on reserve that are presented in this report must be interpreted with caution, in particular because of the nature of the adjustment for net undercoverage, which was done in order to constitute the base population (see Section 1). These projections assume that net undercoverage of North American Indians living off reserve is identical by age, sex and place of residence with that of the overall population, while a specific adjustment is made for Indian reserves. If the net undercoverage of North American Indians living off reserve should prove to be greater than that of the rest of the population, the proportions presented might be slightly overestimated.
  7. The differences observed between provinces regarding population growth on-reserve can be partially explained by uneven internal migrations flows. As specified earlier in this document, on-reserve migration is allowed only for regions where the on-reserve population is large enough to model in and out-migrations flows. In other regions, the on-reserve population is simply considered as a "closed population", that is, a population where internal migration is not allowed. As the proportion of the population living in these "closed" reserves varies from one province to the next, the growth related to internal migration also varies from one province to the next.
  8. For this reason—lack of gains from intragenerational ethnic mobility—only the two projection scenarios that assume no ethnic mobility (scenarios 1 and 2) are dealt with in this section.
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