Introduction

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The demography of Aboriginal populations in Canada differs vastly from that of non-Aboriginal populations in a number of ways. According to data collected in recent decades, Aboriginal populations in Canada are significantly younger, are less likely to live in greater metropolitan areas and have more sustained demographic growth (Statistics Canada 2008, 2013). In that regard, they have several points in common with the Aboriginal populations of other countries such as the United States, Australia and New Zealand (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001, 2012, 2012-2; Norris et al. 2012).

Despite these general traits, Aboriginal populations in Canada do not constitute a homogenous group, and the primary factors behind their increase vary from one group to another. Among Registered Indians and Inuit (the two youngest Aboriginal identity groups, according to the 2011 National Household Survey, or NHS), fertility is by far the primary factor explaining the increase in these populations. The gain in the registered Indian population is also influenced to some extent, albeit unevenly, by legislative changes or negotiated agreements entitling certain people to register on the Indian Register. For example, between 2006 and 2011, the Gender Equity in Indian Registration Act (Bill C-3) enabled a number of previously unregistered people to register on the Indian Register.

Intragenerational ethnic mobility—people who change their self-reported Aboriginal identity over time—was largely behind the increase in the number of Non-Status Indians and Métis in recent years. According to the most recent data, however, ethnic mobility between 2006 and 2011 is more favourable to First Nations Aboriginal group than to Métis Aboriginal group, in contrast with the period from 1996 to 2006.

In light of the demographic changes between 2006 and 2011 and newly available data sources such as the 2011 NHS, and as projections data are useful to program administration and the development of policies related to Aboriginal people, Statistics Canada has developed a new set of projections for Aboriginal populations. With financial support from Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC), Statistics Canada developed these projections using Demosim’s microsimulation model, for the second time in this context. The projections reap the advantages of microsimulation, such as the ability to produce consistent and simultaneous projections of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, to take into account a large number of characteristics that influence the demographic behaviour of people (such as education and marital status) and to provide an explicit and coherent model of the changes in the Aboriginal group reported over an individual’s lifetime.

This new set of projections nonetheless differs in many respects from those published in 2011 in Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031. This represents the first time that Demosim has been used to publish projections of the registered Indian population in Canada. This population has been included as a category of Aboriginal identity, which in this report includes the following categories identified in accordance with AANDC's classification of Aboriginal identity: Registered Indians, Non-Status Indians, Métis, Inuit, other Aboriginal people and non-Aboriginal people.^Note 1 These projections have the advantage of taking into account the agreement recognizing the Qalipu Mi'kmaq First Nation, the Gender Equity in Indian Registration Act (Bill C-3) and the 1985 amendments to the Indian Act (Bill C-31), each of which grants the right to certain people to register on the Indian Register. The projections also take into consideration the registration category in the intergenerational transmission of registered Indian status to newborns. Moreover, this new edition of the projections includes a household component, which was not part of the previous edition. This new component was developed to meet specific data needs, notably with respect to public policies related to dwellings^Note 2 occupied by Aboriginal people.

This report has six major sections. The first section presents some concepts relating to Aboriginal population that are used in these projections. The second section provides a very brief overview of the base population and the projection model used. The assumptions and scenarios developed for the projections are described in the third section, while the fourth section contains a number of cautionary notes regarding the use of these projections. Aboriginal population projection results are presented in the fifth section, while Aboriginal household projection results are presented in the final section.

It should be noted that the methodological complement to this report is available in a separate report entitled Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources. This report includes a general description of how Demosim works, a list of the data sources and methods used to prepare the base population, and the projections' many underlying components.

Note