Analysis of results – Households

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• Aboriginal households in Canada, the provinces and territories
• Aboriginal households in census metropolitan areas (excluding Indian reserves)
• Aboriginal households outside of census metropolitan areas (excluding Indian reserves and Inuit Nunangat)
• Households on Indian reserves
• Households in Inuit Nunangat
• Notes

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This section presents the projection results for Aboriginal households in Canada. Results are presented in five sections, each corresponding to a specific geography: 1) Canada, the provinces and the territories; 2) the census metropolitan areas (CMAs), excluding Indian reserves; 3) regions outside CMAs, excluding Indian reserves and Inuit Nunangat; 4) Indian reserves; and 5) Inuit Nunangat.

Aboriginal households in Canada, the provinces and territories

In 2011, there were 13.7 million private households in Canada. Of those households, 699,000 comprised at least one person with an Aboriginal identity (Registered Indian, Non-Status Indian, Métis or Inuk).^Note 33 Those households, which we are referring to as Aboriginal for the purposes of these projections, represented 5.1% of all households in Canada. Between 2001 and 2011, the number of Aboriginal households in Canada rose by 57.7%,^Note 34 partly as a result of intragenerational ethnic mobility. This compares with an increase of 13.6% for other households.

The number of Aboriginal households would increase over the next 25 years (Table 14) under all projection scenarios. By 2036, households would number between 986,000 (scenario with no ethnic mobility, based on the assumption that intragenerational ethnic mobility would cease) and 1,214,000 (reference scenario, where ethnic mobility maintains the rate observed between 1996 and 2011 and where Aboriginal fertility completely converges with that of the non-Aboriginal population). From 2011 to 2036, the number of Aboriginal households would rise between 41.1% and 73.7%, a much higher growth rate than that projected for non-Aboriginal households (between +27.8% and +29.5%) for the same period. This gain in the number of Aboriginal households would be due not only to the increase in the Aboriginal population but also to its aging, as older people tend to live in households with fewer persons.

Consequently, the number of Aboriginal households as a percentage of all households would be higher than in 2011 under all scenarios. Aboriginal households would represent between 5.5% and 6.8% of all households in Canada in 2036. These results are largely consistent with those presented for the Aboriginal population in previous sections of this report.

The number of Aboriginal households would rise in all regions of Canada. The scale of this increase would nonetheless vary according to the region and the scenario, and would depend to a large extent on the growth of the Aboriginal population in those regions.

Growth rates in the number of Aboriginal households between 2011 and 2036 would be higher in the Prairie provinces—between 58.2% and 78.4% in Manitoba, between 64.6% and 74.0% in Saskatchewan and between 60.5% and 90.7% in Alberta—while they would be lowest in the Atlantic region (between +10.4% and +48.5%). Among the territories, the highest growth rates would be in Nunavut (between +72.8% and +75.4%).

As in 2011, Ontario would have the highest number of Aboriginal households in 2036 (between 236,000 and 314,000), followed by Alberta (between 174,000 and 206,000) and British Columbia (between 169,000 and 209,000). The Atlantic region would continue to record the smallest number of Aboriginal households (excluding the territories), reaching between 55,000 and 74,000 in 2036.

Among the provinces, Manitoba (between 20.0% and 22.5%) and Saskatchewan (between 19.2% and 20.2%) would have the highest number of Aboriginal households as a percentage of all households in 2036. Conversely, this percentage would be lowest in Quebec (between 2.4% and 3.2% according to the scenario).

Aboriginal households in census metropolitan areas (excluding Indian reserves)

In 2011, there were 302,000 Aboriginal households in CMAs. A quarter-century later, this number could reach between 427,000 (scenario with no ethnic mobility) and 553,000 (reference scenario). Aboriginal households in CMAs would thus account for between 43.3% and 45.9% of all Aboriginal households in Canada by 2036, compared with 43.2% in 2011.

While Aboriginal households represented 3.2% of all households located in CMAs in 2011, this proportion would increase under all scenarios and reach between 3.3% and 4.2% by 2036.

In terms of Aboriginal household composition in CMAs, 109,000 households included at least one Registered Indian in 2011, while among the other Aboriginal households, 121,000 included at least one member who reported being Métis. By 2036, the number of CMA households with at least one Registered Indian would rise to between 174,000 and 180,000 by 2036, representing an increase ranging from 59.8% to 65.3%. Under all scenarios, households with at least one Métis—but with no Registered Indian—would see their number increase to between 164,000 (scenario with no ethnic mobility) and 236,000 (reference scenario) by the end of the projection period (Table 15).

Aboriginal households outside of census metropolitan areas (excluding Indian reserves and Inuit Nunangat)

In 2011, 280,000 households numbering at least one Aboriginal person resided in regions outside CMAs in Canada (excluding Indian reserves and the Inuit Nunangat regions). Under the projection scenarios adopted, the number of Aboriginal households in those regions would increase to between 347,000 and 461,000 by 2036. At the end of the projected period, Aboriginal households in regions outside CMAs could represent between 7.7% (scenario with no ethnic mobility) and 10.4% (scenario with no internal migration) of all households outside CMAs in Canada, up from 6.7% in 2011.

Outside CMAs, Aboriginal households with at least one Registered Indian would see their number increase between 2011 and 2036 under all scenarios (Table 16), up from 109,000 in 2011 to between 146,000 and 169,000 25 years later. The number of households with at least one Métis—but with no Registered Indian—would also rise, from 117,000 in 2011 to between 146,000 (scenario with no ethnic mobility) and 196,000 (scenario with no internal migration).

Households on Indian reserves

In 2011, there were 120,000 households (both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal) on Indian reserves. Of these, most (86.6%) were composed of at least one person with registered Indian status. Under all projection scenarios, the number of households on reserves would increase over the next 25 years to between 191,000 (scenario with no internal migration) and 208,000 (constant fertility scenario) in 2036 (Figure 13). Under all scenarios, the vast majority of households located on Indian reserves in 2036 would be composed of at least one person who is a Registered Indian.

Description for figure 13

As was the case for the population, internal migration would have a significant impact on trends in the number of households on Indian reserves. If internal migration to reserves were to stop, the increase in the number of households on reserves would slow considerably, as internal migration favours population growth on reserves in all regions considered.

Households in Inuit Nunangat

In 2011, there were about 16,000 households in the four Inuit Nunangat regions combined. Of those households, more than 12,000 were composed of at least one Inuk. Over the next 25 years, the number of households with at least one Inuk within Inuit Nunangat would rise to about 22,000 by 2036 under all scenarios considered. This increase is strongly linked to the projected growth of the Inuit population presented in the previous section.

Notes