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All (7) ((7 results))

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201400214110
    Description:

    In developing the sample design for a survey we attempt to produce a good design for the funds available. Information on costs can be used to develop sample designs that minimise the sampling variance of an estimator of total for fixed cost. Improvements in survey management systems mean that it is now sometimes possible to estimate the cost of including each unit in the sample. This paper develops relatively simple approaches to determine whether the potential gains arising from using this unit level cost information are likely to be of practical use. It is shown that the key factor is the coefficient of variation of the costs relative to the coefficient of variation of the relative error on the estimated cost coefficients.

    Release date: 2014-12-19

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20030017695
    Description:

    This paper proposes methods to correct a seasonally adjusted series so that its annual totals match those of the raw series. The methods are illustrated with a seasonally adjusted series obtained with either X-11-ARIMA or X-12-ARIMA.

    Release date: 2005-01-26

  • Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19990015688
    Description:

    The geographical and temporal relationship between outdoor air pollution and asthma was examined by linking together data from multiple sources. These included the administrative records of 59 general practices widely dispersed across England and Wales for half a million patients and all their consultations for asthma, supplemented by a socio-economic interview survey. Postcode enabled linkage with: (i) computed local road density; (ii) emission estimates of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxides, (iii) measured/interpolated concentration of black smoke, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and other pollutants at practice level. Parallel Poisson time series analysis took into account between-practice variations to examine daily correlations in practices close to air quality monitoring stations. Preliminary analyses show small and generally non-significant geographical associations between consultation rates and pollution markers. The methodological issues relevant to combining such data, and the interpretation of these results will be discussed.

    Release date: 2000-03-02

  • Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19980015031
    Description:

    The U.S. Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) was carried out from 1988 to 1994. This survey was intended primarily to provide estimates of cross-sectional parameters believed to be approximately constant over the six-year data collection period. However, for some variable (e.g., serum lead, body mass index and smoking behavior), substantive considerations suggest the possible presence of nontrivial changes in level between 1988 and 1994. For these variables, NHANES III is potentially a valuable source of time-change information, compared to other studies involving more restricted populations and samples. Exploration of possible change over time is complicated by two issues. First, there was of practical concern because some variables displayed substantial regional differences in level. This was of practical concern because some variables displayed substantial regional differences in level. Second, nontrivial changes in level over time can lead to nontrivial biases in some customary NHANES III variance estimators. This paper considers these two problems and discusses some related implications for statistical policy.

    Release date: 1999-10-22

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X198500114366
    Description:

    This study is mainly concerned with an evaluation of the forecasting performance of a set of the most often applied ARIMA models. These models were fitted to a sample of two hundred seasonal time series chosen from eleven sectors of the Canadian economy. The performance of the models was judged according to eight variable criteria, namely: average forecast error for the last three years, the chi-square statistic for the randomness of the residuals, the presence of small parameters, overdifferencing, underdifferencing, correlation between the parameters, stationarity and invertibility. Overall and conditional rankings of the models are obtained and graphs are presented.

    Release date: 1985-06-14

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X198400214355
    Description:

    This paper presents a moving average which estimates the trend-cycle while eliminating seasonality from semi-annual series (observed twice yearly). The proposed average retains the power of all cycles which last three years or more; 90% of those of two years; and 55% of cycles of one year and a half. By comparison, the two by two moving average retains the power of respectively 75%, 50% and 25% of the same cycles.

    Release date: 1984-12-14

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X198400114348
    Description:

    This paper proposes a modification to the method of Denton (1971) for adjusting sub-annual series to yearly totals. These totals originate from more reliable sources and constitute annual benchmarks. The benchmarked series derived according to the modified method is more parallel to the unbenchmarked series than this is the case with the original method. An additive and a proportional variant of the method are presented. These can easily be adapted for flow, stock and index series. Also presented are a few recommendations about the preliminary benchmarking of current data and the management of “historical” estimates of the series.

    Release date: 1984-06-15
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Analysis (5)

Analysis (5) ((5 results))

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201400214110
    Description:

    In developing the sample design for a survey we attempt to produce a good design for the funds available. Information on costs can be used to develop sample designs that minimise the sampling variance of an estimator of total for fixed cost. Improvements in survey management systems mean that it is now sometimes possible to estimate the cost of including each unit in the sample. This paper develops relatively simple approaches to determine whether the potential gains arising from using this unit level cost information are likely to be of practical use. It is shown that the key factor is the coefficient of variation of the costs relative to the coefficient of variation of the relative error on the estimated cost coefficients.

    Release date: 2014-12-19

  • Articles and reports: 11-522-X20030017695
    Description:

    This paper proposes methods to correct a seasonally adjusted series so that its annual totals match those of the raw series. The methods are illustrated with a seasonally adjusted series obtained with either X-11-ARIMA or X-12-ARIMA.

    Release date: 2005-01-26

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X198500114366
    Description:

    This study is mainly concerned with an evaluation of the forecasting performance of a set of the most often applied ARIMA models. These models were fitted to a sample of two hundred seasonal time series chosen from eleven sectors of the Canadian economy. The performance of the models was judged according to eight variable criteria, namely: average forecast error for the last three years, the chi-square statistic for the randomness of the residuals, the presence of small parameters, overdifferencing, underdifferencing, correlation between the parameters, stationarity and invertibility. Overall and conditional rankings of the models are obtained and graphs are presented.

    Release date: 1985-06-14

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X198400214355
    Description:

    This paper presents a moving average which estimates the trend-cycle while eliminating seasonality from semi-annual series (observed twice yearly). The proposed average retains the power of all cycles which last three years or more; 90% of those of two years; and 55% of cycles of one year and a half. By comparison, the two by two moving average retains the power of respectively 75%, 50% and 25% of the same cycles.

    Release date: 1984-12-14

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X198400114348
    Description:

    This paper proposes a modification to the method of Denton (1971) for adjusting sub-annual series to yearly totals. These totals originate from more reliable sources and constitute annual benchmarks. The benchmarked series derived according to the modified method is more parallel to the unbenchmarked series than this is the case with the original method. An additive and a proportional variant of the method are presented. These can easily be adapted for flow, stock and index series. Also presented are a few recommendations about the preliminary benchmarking of current data and the management of “historical” estimates of the series.

    Release date: 1984-06-15
Reference (2)

Reference (2) ((2 results))

  • Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19990015688
    Description:

    The geographical and temporal relationship between outdoor air pollution and asthma was examined by linking together data from multiple sources. These included the administrative records of 59 general practices widely dispersed across England and Wales for half a million patients and all their consultations for asthma, supplemented by a socio-economic interview survey. Postcode enabled linkage with: (i) computed local road density; (ii) emission estimates of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxides, (iii) measured/interpolated concentration of black smoke, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and other pollutants at practice level. Parallel Poisson time series analysis took into account between-practice variations to examine daily correlations in practices close to air quality monitoring stations. Preliminary analyses show small and generally non-significant geographical associations between consultation rates and pollution markers. The methodological issues relevant to combining such data, and the interpretation of these results will be discussed.

    Release date: 2000-03-02

  • Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19980015031
    Description:

    The U.S. Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) was carried out from 1988 to 1994. This survey was intended primarily to provide estimates of cross-sectional parameters believed to be approximately constant over the six-year data collection period. However, for some variable (e.g., serum lead, body mass index and smoking behavior), substantive considerations suggest the possible presence of nontrivial changes in level between 1988 and 1994. For these variables, NHANES III is potentially a valuable source of time-change information, compared to other studies involving more restricted populations and samples. Exploration of possible change over time is complicated by two issues. First, there was of practical concern because some variables displayed substantial regional differences in level. This was of practical concern because some variables displayed substantial regional differences in level. Second, nontrivial changes in level over time can lead to nontrivial biases in some customary NHANES III variance estimators. This paper considers these two problems and discusses some related implications for statistical policy.

    Release date: 1999-10-22
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