Weighting and estimation
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- Articles and reports: 11-522-X202200100003Description: Estimation at fine levels of aggregation is necessary to better describe society. Small area estimation model-based approaches that combine sparse survey data with rich data from auxiliary sources have been proven useful to improve the reliability of estimates for small domains. Considered here is a scenario where small area model-based estimates, produced at a given aggregation level, needed to be disaggregated to better describe the social structure at finer levels. For this scenario, an allocation method was developed to implement the disaggregation, overcoming challenges associated with data availability and model development at such fine levels. The method is applied to adult literacy and numeracy estimation at the county-by-group-level, using data from the U.S. Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies. In this application the groups are defined in terms of age or education, but the method could be applied to estimation of other equity-deserving groups.Release date: 2024-03-25
- Articles and reports: 11-633-X2023003Description: This paper spans the academic work and estimation strategies used in national statistics offices. It addresses the issue of producing fine, grid-level geography estimates for Canada by exploring the measurement of subprovincial and subterritorial gross domestic product using Yukon as a test case.Release date: 2023-12-15
- Articles and reports: 12-001-X202200200011Description:
Two-phase sampling is a cost effective sampling design employed extensively in surveys. In this paper a method of most efficient linear estimation of totals in two-phase sampling is proposed, which exploits optimally auxiliary survey information. First, a best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of any total is formally derived in analytic form, and shown to be also a calibration estimator. Then, a proper reformulation of such a BLUE and estimation of its unknown coefficients leads to the construction of an “optimal” regression estimator, which can also be obtained through a suitable calibration procedure. A distinctive feature of such calibration is the alignment of estimates from the two phases in an one-step procedure involving the combined first-and-second phase samples. Optimal estimation is feasible for certain two-phase designs that are used often in large scale surveys. For general two-phase designs, an alternative calibration procedure gives a generalized regression estimator as an approximate optimal estimator. The proposed general approach to optimal estimation leads to the most effective use of the available auxiliary information in any two-phase survey. The advantages of this approach over existing methods of estimation in two-phase sampling are shown both theoretically and through a simulation study.
Release date: 2022-12-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X202000200002Description:
In many large-scale surveys, estimates are produced for numerous small domains defined by cross-classifications of demographic, geographic and other variables. Even though the overall sample size of such surveys might be very large, samples sizes for domains are sometimes too small for reliable estimation. We propose an improved estimation approach that is applicable when “natural” or qualitative relationships (such as orderings or other inequality constraints) can be formulated for the domain means at the population level. We stay within a design-based inferential framework but impose constraints representing these relationships on the sample-based estimates. The resulting constrained domain estimator is shown to be design consistent and asymptotically normally distributed as long as the constraints are asymptotically satisfied at the population level. The estimator and its associated variance estimator are readily implemented in practice. The applicability of the method is illustrated on data from the 2015 U.S. National Survey of College Graduates.
Release date: 2020-12-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X202000100004Description:
Cut-off sampling is applied when there is a subset of units from the population from which getting the required information is too expensive or difficult and, therefore, those units are deliberately excluded from sample selection. If those excluded units are different from the sampled ones in the characteristics of interest, naïve estimators may be severely biased. Calibration estimators have been proposed to reduce the design-bias. However, when estimating in small domains, they can be inefficient even in the absence of cut-off sampling. Model-based small area estimation methods may prove useful for reducing the bias due to cut-off sampling if the assumed model holds for the whole population. At the same time, for small domains, these methods provide more efficient estimators than calibration methods. Since model-based properties are obtained assuming that the model holds but no model is exactly true, here we analyze the design properties of calibration and model-based procedures for estimation of small domain characteristics under cut-off sampling. Our results confirm that model-based estimators reduce the bias due to cut-off sampling and perform significantly better in terms of design mean squared error.
Release date: 2020-06-30 - Notices and consultations: 75F0002M2019006Description:
In 2018, Statistics Canada released two new data tables with estimates of effective tax and transfer rates for individual tax filers and census families. These estimates are derived from the Longitudinal Administrative Databank. This publication provides a detailed description of the methods used to derive the estimates of effective tax and transfer rates.
Release date: 2019-04-16 - 7. Robust Bayesian small area estimation ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800154959Description:
Small area models handling area level data typically assume normality of random effects. This assumption does not always work. The present paper introduces a new small area model with t random effects. Along with this, this paper also considers joint modeling of small area means and variances. The present approach is shown to perform better than other methods.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - Articles and reports: 11-626-X2017077Description:
On April 13, 2017, the Government of Canada tabled legislation to legalize the recreational use of cannabis by adults. This will directly impact Canada’s statistical system. The focus of this Economic Insights article is to provide experimental estimates for the volume of cannabis consumption, based on existing information on the prevalence of cannabis use. The article presents experimental estimates of the number of tonnes of cannabis consumed by age group for the period from 1960 to 2015. The experimental estimates rely on survey data from multiple sources, statistical techniques to link the sources over time, and assumptions about consumption behaviour. They are subject to revision as improved or additional data sources become available.
Release date: 2017-12-18 - 9. Tests for evaluating nonresponse bias in surveys ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201600214677Description:
How do we tell whether weighting adjustments reduce nonresponse bias? If a variable is measured for everyone in the selected sample, then the design weights can be used to calculate an approximately unbiased estimate of the population mean or total for that variable. A second estimate of the population mean or total can be calculated using the survey respondents only, with weights that have been adjusted for nonresponse. If the two estimates disagree, then there is evidence that the weight adjustments may not have removed the nonresponse bias for that variable. In this paper we develop the theoretical properties of linearization and jackknife variance estimators for evaluating the bias of an estimated population mean or total by comparing estimates calculated from overlapping subsets of the same data with different sets of weights, when poststratification or inverse propensity weighting is used for the nonresponse adjustments to the weights. We provide sufficient conditions on the population, sample, and response mechanism for the variance estimators to be consistent, and demonstrate their small-sample properties through a simulation study.
Release date: 2016-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201500214230Description:
This paper develops allocation methods for stratified sample surveys where composite small area estimators are a priority, and areas are used as strata. Longford (2006) proposed an objective criterion for this situation, based on a weighted combination of the mean squared errors of small area means and a grand mean. Here, we redefine this approach within a model-assisted framework, allowing regressor variables and a more natural interpretation of results using an intra-class correlation parameter. We also consider several uses of power allocation, and allow the placing of other constraints such as maximum relative root mean squared errors for stratum estimators. We find that a simple power allocation can perform very nearly as well as the optimal design even when the objective is to minimize Longford’s (2006) criterion.
Release date: 2015-12-17
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- Articles and reports: 11-522-X202200100003Description: Estimation at fine levels of aggregation is necessary to better describe society. Small area estimation model-based approaches that combine sparse survey data with rich data from auxiliary sources have been proven useful to improve the reliability of estimates for small domains. Considered here is a scenario where small area model-based estimates, produced at a given aggregation level, needed to be disaggregated to better describe the social structure at finer levels. For this scenario, an allocation method was developed to implement the disaggregation, overcoming challenges associated with data availability and model development at such fine levels. The method is applied to adult literacy and numeracy estimation at the county-by-group-level, using data from the U.S. Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies. In this application the groups are defined in terms of age or education, but the method could be applied to estimation of other equity-deserving groups.Release date: 2024-03-25
- Articles and reports: 11-633-X2023003Description: This paper spans the academic work and estimation strategies used in national statistics offices. It addresses the issue of producing fine, grid-level geography estimates for Canada by exploring the measurement of subprovincial and subterritorial gross domestic product using Yukon as a test case.Release date: 2023-12-15
- Articles and reports: 12-001-X202200200011Description:
Two-phase sampling is a cost effective sampling design employed extensively in surveys. In this paper a method of most efficient linear estimation of totals in two-phase sampling is proposed, which exploits optimally auxiliary survey information. First, a best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of any total is formally derived in analytic form, and shown to be also a calibration estimator. Then, a proper reformulation of such a BLUE and estimation of its unknown coefficients leads to the construction of an “optimal” regression estimator, which can also be obtained through a suitable calibration procedure. A distinctive feature of such calibration is the alignment of estimates from the two phases in an one-step procedure involving the combined first-and-second phase samples. Optimal estimation is feasible for certain two-phase designs that are used often in large scale surveys. For general two-phase designs, an alternative calibration procedure gives a generalized regression estimator as an approximate optimal estimator. The proposed general approach to optimal estimation leads to the most effective use of the available auxiliary information in any two-phase survey. The advantages of this approach over existing methods of estimation in two-phase sampling are shown both theoretically and through a simulation study.
Release date: 2022-12-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X202000200002Description:
In many large-scale surveys, estimates are produced for numerous small domains defined by cross-classifications of demographic, geographic and other variables. Even though the overall sample size of such surveys might be very large, samples sizes for domains are sometimes too small for reliable estimation. We propose an improved estimation approach that is applicable when “natural” or qualitative relationships (such as orderings or other inequality constraints) can be formulated for the domain means at the population level. We stay within a design-based inferential framework but impose constraints representing these relationships on the sample-based estimates. The resulting constrained domain estimator is shown to be design consistent and asymptotically normally distributed as long as the constraints are asymptotically satisfied at the population level. The estimator and its associated variance estimator are readily implemented in practice. The applicability of the method is illustrated on data from the 2015 U.S. National Survey of College Graduates.
Release date: 2020-12-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X202000100004Description:
Cut-off sampling is applied when there is a subset of units from the population from which getting the required information is too expensive or difficult and, therefore, those units are deliberately excluded from sample selection. If those excluded units are different from the sampled ones in the characteristics of interest, naïve estimators may be severely biased. Calibration estimators have been proposed to reduce the design-bias. However, when estimating in small domains, they can be inefficient even in the absence of cut-off sampling. Model-based small area estimation methods may prove useful for reducing the bias due to cut-off sampling if the assumed model holds for the whole population. At the same time, for small domains, these methods provide more efficient estimators than calibration methods. Since model-based properties are obtained assuming that the model holds but no model is exactly true, here we analyze the design properties of calibration and model-based procedures for estimation of small domain characteristics under cut-off sampling. Our results confirm that model-based estimators reduce the bias due to cut-off sampling and perform significantly better in terms of design mean squared error.
Release date: 2020-06-30 - 6. Robust Bayesian small area estimation ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800154959Description:
Small area models handling area level data typically assume normality of random effects. This assumption does not always work. The present paper introduces a new small area model with t random effects. Along with this, this paper also considers joint modeling of small area means and variances. The present approach is shown to perform better than other methods.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - Articles and reports: 11-626-X2017077Description:
On April 13, 2017, the Government of Canada tabled legislation to legalize the recreational use of cannabis by adults. This will directly impact Canada’s statistical system. The focus of this Economic Insights article is to provide experimental estimates for the volume of cannabis consumption, based on existing information on the prevalence of cannabis use. The article presents experimental estimates of the number of tonnes of cannabis consumed by age group for the period from 1960 to 2015. The experimental estimates rely on survey data from multiple sources, statistical techniques to link the sources over time, and assumptions about consumption behaviour. They are subject to revision as improved or additional data sources become available.
Release date: 2017-12-18 - 8. Tests for evaluating nonresponse bias in surveys ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201600214677Description:
How do we tell whether weighting adjustments reduce nonresponse bias? If a variable is measured for everyone in the selected sample, then the design weights can be used to calculate an approximately unbiased estimate of the population mean or total for that variable. A second estimate of the population mean or total can be calculated using the survey respondents only, with weights that have been adjusted for nonresponse. If the two estimates disagree, then there is evidence that the weight adjustments may not have removed the nonresponse bias for that variable. In this paper we develop the theoretical properties of linearization and jackknife variance estimators for evaluating the bias of an estimated population mean or total by comparing estimates calculated from overlapping subsets of the same data with different sets of weights, when poststratification or inverse propensity weighting is used for the nonresponse adjustments to the weights. We provide sufficient conditions on the population, sample, and response mechanism for the variance estimators to be consistent, and demonstrate their small-sample properties through a simulation study.
Release date: 2016-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201500214230Description:
This paper develops allocation methods for stratified sample surveys where composite small area estimators are a priority, and areas are used as strata. Longford (2006) proposed an objective criterion for this situation, based on a weighted combination of the mean squared errors of small area means and a grand mean. Here, we redefine this approach within a model-assisted framework, allowing regressor variables and a more natural interpretation of results using an intra-class correlation parameter. We also consider several uses of power allocation, and allow the placing of other constraints such as maximum relative root mean squared errors for stratum estimators. We find that a simple power allocation can perform very nearly as well as the optimal design even when the objective is to minimize Longford’s (2006) criterion.
Release date: 2015-12-17 - 10. Small area estimation under a Fay-Herriot model with preliminary testing for the presence of random area effects ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201500114161Description:
A popular area level model used for the estimation of small area means is the Fay-Herriot model. This model involves unobservable random effects for the areas apart from the (fixed) linear regression based on area level covariates. Empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area means are obtained by estimating the area random effects, and they can be expressed as a weighted average of area-specific direct estimators and regression-synthetic estimators. In some cases the observed data do not support the inclusion of the area random effects in the model. Excluding these area effects leads to the regression-synthetic estimator, that is, a zero weight is attached to the direct estimator. A preliminary test estimator of a small area mean obtained after testing for the presence of area random effects is studied. On the other hand, empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area means that always give non-zero weights to the direct estimators in all areas together with alternative estimators based on the preliminary test are also studied. The preliminary testing procedure is also used to define new mean squared error estimators of the point estimators of small area means. Results of a limited simulation study show that, for small number of areas, the preliminary testing procedure leads to mean squared error estimators with considerably smaller average absolute relative bias than the usual mean squared error estimators, especially when the variance of the area effects is small relative to the sampling variances.
Release date: 2015-06-29
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- Notices and consultations: 75F0002M2019006Description:
In 2018, Statistics Canada released two new data tables with estimates of effective tax and transfer rates for individual tax filers and census families. These estimates are derived from the Longitudinal Administrative Databank. This publication provides a detailed description of the methods used to derive the estimates of effective tax and transfer rates.
Release date: 2019-04-16
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