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The Daily

The Daily. Tuesday, March 13, 2001

Population projections

2000 to 2026

Canada's population will continue growing in the next quarter century, but it will age considerably and the proportion of young people will shrink significantly, according to new population projections.

An enormous increase in the number of seniors, attributable to the aging of the baby boomers combined with continuing low fertility levels and increasing longevity, will age the population rapidly. In the medium-growth scenario, half the population will be over the age of 43.6 by 2026, up substantially from 36.8 in 2000. By 2051, the projected median age will be 46.2.

The baby boomers - those born in the two decades after the Second World War - will have the most profound impact on the nation's demographics in the next 25 years. In 2000, about one out of every eight people in the population was aged 65 and older. By 2026, one out of every five people will be a senior. By 2016 at the latest, Canada will have far more seniors than children aged 14 and under, a phenomenon never before recorded.

Growth rate of national population will continue to decelerate

On July 1, 2000, Canada's population was an estimated 30,750,000. In 25 years, it is expected to be between 34 million and 39 million.

The growth rate will continue to decelerate. From 1996 to 2000, the population grew at an average annual rate of 0.9%. In the medium-growth scenario, this growth rate is projected to slow to 0.5% by 2026. From 2046 to 2051, the population could eventually decline at an average rate of 0.1% a year.

In a low-growth scenario, that is, if fertility were to remain significantly below the replacement level and were not offset by high immigration, the population would start to decline much earlier, around the start of the 2030s. Under this low-growth scenario, the rate of decline could reach 0.4% a year between 2046 and 2051.

  

Note to readers

This release contains Statistics Canada's population projections by age and sex for Canada, the provinces and territories. These projections use preliminary population estimates for 2000, which were derived from the 1996 Census of Population, adjusted for net undercoverage.

The projections take into account emerging demographic trends, primarily based on recent changes in the components of population growth. These include notable changes in immigration levels, a further reduction in fertility levels, a continued increase in life expectancy and significant changes in interprovincial migration trends.

This release gives four series of projections representing three growth scenarios: high, medium and low. It provides provincial and territorial projections for 26 years to 2026. Projections for the national level are extended to 2051 by keeping the fertility, life expectancy and migration assumptions constant at the levels projected for 2026.

It should be stressed that these projections are not predictions. Rather, they represent an attempt to establish plausible long-term scenarios based on assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty.

  

Immigration levels contribute heavily to the projected population growth at the national level, as the fertility rate is always assumed to be below the replacement level, a situation observed since the 1970s.

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Enormous increase in seniors expected in next quarter century

The number of people aged 65 and over is expected to double from nearly 4 million in 2000 to almost 8 million by 2026. By 2051, the population of seniors could reach between 9 million and 10 million.

Senior citizens will account for 21% of the population by 2026, compared with 13% in 2000. By mid-century, they will represent virtually one-quarter of the population.

The most rapidly growing age group will be 80 and older, which will more than double from 920,000 in 2000 to 1.9 million in 2026. By mid-century, this group will likely have increased nearly four-fold to 3.3 million.

The rapid expansion of this advanced age group can be attributed to both increased life expectancy and the entry of baby boomers into the group.

The impact of continued aging of the population is readily apparent in the "potential support ratio" - the number of working-age people per senior. It has been falling and is projected to fall precipitously in the coming decades. Between 2000 and 2026, this ratio will decline from five working-age persons for each senior to just three.

Age structure of population, medium-growth scenario

Age structure of population, medium-growth scenario


Year 0 to 14 15 to 64 65 and over Total
  '000
1996 5,992 20,098 3,582 29,672
2000 5,869 21,018 3,863 30,750
         
2006 5,527 22,400 4,302 32,229
2016 5,241 23,477 5,702 34,420
2026 5,382 23,056 7,753 36,191
2036 5,203 22,765 9,067 37,035
2051 5,053 22,440 9,366 36,860
         
  %
1996 20.2 67.7 12.1 100.0
2000 19.1 68.3 12.6 100.0
         
2006 17.1 69.5 13.3 100.0
2016 15.2 68.2 16.6 100.0
2026 14.9 63.7 21.4 100.0
2036 14.0 61.5 24.5 100.0
2051 13.7 60.9 25.4 100.0

Working-age population likely to start declining within two decades

The proportion of Canada's working-age population, composed of people aged 15 to 64, will start to decline within two decades, according to projections from the low- and medium-growth scenarios. The projections show that the working-age population will rise until about 2016, then start to fall.

This group, estimated at 21.0 million in 2000, will number between 22.0 million and 24.2 million by 2026. While the proportion of senior citizens in the population will be growing strongly by then, the proportion of working-age people will already have started to decline.

Under the medium-growth scenario, for example, the working-age group will account for 64% of the population in 2026, down from 68% in 2000. By 2051, the proportion will have dropped to 61%.

This decline will be reflected in the "dependency ratio," the ratio of children and elderly to the working-age population. Currently, for every 100 people of working age, there are 46 children and elderly people. But projections show that in 2026, the dependency ratio will range between 55 and 60. This increase is owing primarily to the burgeoning numbers of elderly.

Most provinces likely to grow

Projections at the provincial and territorial level should be approached with caution. This is because interprovincial migration, a component that is very volatile and difficult to forecast, has a major impact on the growth of population in the provinces and territories.

Under the medium-growth scenario, population gains are projected for all provinces to 2026, except for Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan. In general, rates of growth, though uneven, tend to decline over the projection period in the low- and medium-growth scenarios.

Provincial shares of the Canadian population change slowly over time. By and large, the ranking of provincial and territorial shares of Canada's population will likely remain the same as in 2000.

However, some trends common to all scenarios emerge. First, the shares of the Atlantic provinces, Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan will all likely decline. The shares of the territories remain more or less constant, while those of Ontario and British Columbia increase. Alberta's share increases in almost all scenarios.

As of July 1, 2000, Ontario had 38% of Canada's population, followed by Quebec at 24%, British Columbia at 13% and Alberta at just under 10%. The most notable changes in the projected provincial shares of the total population will be in Quebec and Ontario. In the medium-growth scenario, their share could be 21% for Quebec and 41% for Ontario in 2026.

Available on CANSIM: matrices 6900-6913.

Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 2000-2026 (91-520-XIB, $40; 91-520-XPB, $100) is now available. See How to order products.

To obtain data, contact Lise Champagne (613-951-2320; fax: 613-951-2307; chamlis@statcan.gc.ca), Demography Division, or the nearest Regional Reference Centre. For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact M.V. George (613-951-9580), Demography Division.


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