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The Daily. Wednesday, June 20, 2001

Composite Index

The preliminary estimate for the leading indicator showed no change in May, its sixth straight month without an increase. The original estimate of no change in April was revised to a slight decline, in line with the trend since the turn of the year. In May, four components rose, one less than in April, four decreased and two were unchanged.

The weakness in the stock market and in manufacturing in recent months spread to services in May, with employment in this sector stalled for the first time since October 1999. The drop was particularly sharp for professional services in Ontario, where the decrease was by far the largest since records were first compiled in 1987. Ontario has been affected by slumping U.S. demand for autos and information technology. The downward trend of the U.S. leading indicator has slowed, as the money supply and the yield curve moved in a positive direction.

Boosted by gains in disposable income at the start of the year, household demand for big-ticket items remains the strongest sector in the economy, accounting for three of the four components that expanded. Housing continued on its upward trend, and falling vacancy rates, especially for multiple units, suggest more gains may be in store. Furniture and appliance sales continued to grow rapidly. Spending on other durable goods turned up, as auto sales received a boost from rebates.

Available on CANSIM: table 3770003 and matrix 193.

For more information on the economy, the June issue of Canadian economic observer (11-010-XPB, $23/$227) is available this week.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Francine Roy (613-951-3627), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Composite Index