Canada's population by age and sex

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Canada's population keeps getting older, as is the case for almost every other developed nation in the world. As of July 1, 2006, the median age of the population reached a record high of 38.8 years, compared to 38.5 a year before and 37.2 in 2001.

Generally speaking, the data showed an east-west split among the provinces in patterns of ageing. The Atlantic provinces and Quebec have an older population with a median age higher than the national level, while Ontario and the western provinces, as well as the territories, have younger populations and a lower median age.

The single exception to this general pattern was British Columbia, where the population was relatively older due to a fertility which has been among the lowest in Canada since the mid-sixties.

The population estimates are based on the 2001 Census, adjusted for net undercoverage, and updated between censuses from migration, fertility and mortality information coming from administrative sources. Data on age and sex from the 2006 Census are scheduled for release during the summer of 2007.

According to medium-growth scenarios of Statistics Canada's most recent demographic projections, released in The Daily on December 15, 2005, the median age of the population in 2056 would be 46.9 years.

This year, the oldest of the baby boomers, the generation born during the 1946 to 1965 period, started to turn 60 years old. By the end of the year, more than 400,000 of Canadian boomers, almost 1,100 a day, will have celebrated their 60th birthday.

The ageing of the Canadian population was observed for most of the 20th Century. Temporarily stopped by the baby boom, it continued thereafter under the combined impact of a fertility rate that was below the replacement level and a steady increase in life expectancy.

Net international migration has been the main engine of population growth in Canada since the beginning of the 1990s. However, it has had little impact on the population's age structure. The only way the ageing process can be reversed is through a fertility rate that is permanently above the replacement level.

Among the G8 nations, Canada's median age is the third lowest behind United States and Russia.

Seniors represent growing proportion of the population

These population estimates show that the proportion of seniors aged 65 and over in the population continues to grow.

As of July 1, 2006, seniors accounted for an estimated 13.2% of the country's population, almost double the proportion of 7.2% at the outset of the baby boom in 1946. Meanwhile, the proportion of individuals aged 20 to 64 increased from 56.3% to 62.8%.

At the same time, Canada has undergone a substantial decline in the number of children and young people. As of July 1, 2006, the age group 0 to 19 accounted for less than one-quarter (24.0%) of the population, down from 36.6% in 1946. This decline will continue for the next 50 years. By 2056, it is projected that youth in this age group will represent less than 20% of the population.

The importance of seniors in Canada will accelerate in 2011 and will be exacerbated until 2031, the year when the last of the baby boom generation will reach the age of 65. According to projections, seniors could account for more than one out of every four individuals in the population by 2056.

Ageing process fastest in Atlantic Canada

With a few exceptions, the older populations in Canada are found east of Ontario, while the population west of Quebec and in the territories is younger. While differences are mainly generated by different fertility levels, migration also plays a role.

In the Atlantic region, out-migration of young adults is accelerating an ageing process already fueled by a persistent lower fertility. As of July 1, 2006, all four Atlantic provinces had a population older than the national median. Except for Prince Edward Island, their median age was over 40 years.

The oldest province was Newfoundland and Labrador with a median age of 41.3 years. Between 2001 and 2006, the median rose by 3.2 years, the fastest increase in the country.

Quebec, with a median age of 40.4 years, is the only province outside of the Atlantic region to post a median age higher than 40. This was mainly due to a fertility which had been steadily lower than the rest of the country over the first 25 years following the baby boom. However, the recent increase in fertility, if maintained, could slow the province's ageing process.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan have relatively young populations. A strong Aboriginal presence has helped both provinces maintain higher fertility rates. These have offset important losses of young people through interprovincial migration and, at the same time, slowed the ageing of their population.

Because of a persistent higher fertility and the steady, strong inflow of young Canadians from other parts of the country, Alberta had the youngest population amongst provinces, with a median age of 35.5 years. Between 2001 and 2006, Alberta's median age only went up by 0.8 years, the smallest increase among the provinces.

In British Columbia, the median age was 39.8 years, making it the only western province with a median above the national level. This was the result of decades of lower fertility that offset the effect of strong migratory inflows.

The population was also younger in the three territories. The lowest median ages in the country were in Nunavut (23.2 years) and the Northwest Territories (30.9 years) caused by their fertility rates which are Canada's highest.

The Yukon, with a median age of 38.0 years, just below the national level, was an exception in the North. This is because it has fertility rates lower than the two other territories.

Immigration does not stop Canada's ageing

Even a substantial increase in the number of immigrants could not stop Canada's population ageing. For example, if Canada was to admit four times as many immigrants per year, the population's median age would still increase, from the current 38.8 to 44.1 years in 2056. This would mean an average of about one million immigrants per year for the next 50 years. Regardless, the proportion of seniors would increase from the current 13.2% to 22.3% in 2056. These results are obtained from the medium-growth scenarios of Statistics Canada's most recent demographic projections (91-520-XIE, free) and by adjusting the number of immigrants by a factor of four.

As it is the case in almost all G8 countries, the only way to stop the Canadian ageing process is to increase fertility. The sole exception among the G8 countries is the United States, with a fertility of nearly two children per woman.

However, there is little to indicate that this will occur in Canada, where the current rate is just over 1.5 children for every woman, whereas the replacement level, above which the ageing process would stop, is 2.1 children per woman.

For example, during the baby boom, when the fertility rate reached up to 3.9 children per woman, the median age of Canada's population fell from 27.7 years to 25.4.

Available on CANSIM: tables 051-0001, 051-0002 and 051-0011 to 051-0013.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3604.

Data will appear in the Annual Demographic Statistics Compendium, 2005/2006 CD-ROM to be released in March 2007.

For more information, to obtain additional data, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Client Services (toll-free 1-866-767-5611 or 613-951-2320; fax: 613-951-2307; demography@statcan.gc.ca), Demography Division.

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