Study: The dynamics of housing affordability

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Almost 3 out of every 10 Canadians spent more than 30% of household income on shelter at some point between 2002 and 2004, according to a new study. But only slightly less than 1 out of every 10 did so for all three years.

The study, published today in the online edition of Perspectives on Labour and Income, also showed that in any one year during this period, only about one-fifth of Canadians surpassed this benchmark.

The study, co-authored by Statistics Canada and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, examined the likelihood of spending 30% or more of household income on shelter, how often this occurs and whether it is occasional or persistent.

Shelter is the biggest expenditure most households make, and its affordability can have an impact on well-being.

The study found that a stable 20% of Canadians lived in households that spend above the affordability benchmark for shelter in any single year.

But when measured over a three-year period, 28% reported living in a household that exceeded the benchmark at least one year, compared with 9% for all three years.

As a result, the study concluded that roughly one-third of those exceeding the benchmark at least once during the study period could be considered to be doing so persistently. The other two-thirds moved in and out of this state.

The households most likely to exceed the benchmark were those with people living alone, female lone parents, renters or immigrants. Geographically, they were most likely to be in Vancouver or Toronto.

Those living in households experiencing some kind of transition between 2002 and 2004 were also more likely to exceed the benchmark at least once. This includes renters who became owners and vice versa, inter-city movers, and those with family changes. Family changes can be due to marriage, divorce, births, deaths, and any other increase or decrease in the composition of the family.

However, those experiencing these transitions may not exceed the benchmark persistently (more study years are needed to obtain definitive results).

The study found that those in lower-income households spent a higher share of their incomes on shelter and were more likely to surpass the benchmark. In fact, over 80% of people in households exceeding the benchmark fell into the bottom 40% of the income distribution.

In contrast, those in households with incomes in the top 40% accounted for only about 7% of people exceeding the benchmark. These people were likely spending more out of choice, not necessity.

The study also found that as household income increased, the turnover or change in those living in households exceeding the benchmark also increased. People with higher incomes did not tend to spend above the benchmark persistently. Instead, new people were entering as others were leaving the group from one year to the next.

As expected, a higher proportion of renters spent above the affordability benchmark. In 2004, roughly one-third of renters, paying either market or subsidized rent, lived in households surpassing the benchmark, compared with less than one-quarter of those in owner-households with mortgages, and 1 in 25 of those without mortgages.

Over the three-year study period, well over 40% of renters exceeded the benchmark at some point, a much higher proportion than for owners.

In addition, 47% of people who lived alone, 57% of female lone-parent families and 54% of immigrants who had lived in Canada for less than 10 years were in households that spent above the benchmark at some point during the entire period.

The corresponding single-year figures for 2004 are: 42% for those living alone, 44% for female lone-parent families, and 38% for immigrants who had lived in Canada for less than 10 years.

Geographically, residents of Vancouver were more likely to live in households exceeding the benchmark. About 44% of them did so at some point during the three-year period.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers, including related surveys, 3701 and 3889.

The article "The dynamics of housing affordability" is now available in the January 2008 online edition of Perspectives on Labour and Income, vol. 9, no. 1 (75-001-XWE, free), from the Publications module of our website.

More detail on this topic can be found in the Income Research Paper Series : "The Dynamics of Housing Affordability" (75F0002MIE2008001, free), also released today.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this article, contact Willa Rea (613-951-1585; willa.rea@statcan.gc.ca) or Jennifer Yuen (613-951-1701; jennifer.yuen@statcan.gc.ca), Statistics Canada, or Roberto Figueroa (rfiguero@cmhc.ca), Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.