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Leading indicators
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The rate of decline of the smoothed version of the leading indicator slowed from 1.5% in March to 1.1% in April. Both financial components increased in the month, as the money supply expanded steadily while the stock market turned up. The unsmoothed version of the index rose 0.5%, after seven straight declines.
The indicators of household demand continued to descend. The drop in the housing index eased to 1.2%, the smallest decline in seven months, as existing home sales firmed. Sales of durable goods continued to retrench. A levelling off of services employment originated more in personal than business services.
The manufacturing indicators fell less rapidly than the month before. New orders slowed to a 7.3% decrease. Lower inventories helped moderate the rate of decline in the ratio of shipments to inventories. Export demand benefited from a slower contraction of the US economy. The leading indicator for the United States eased to a 0.3% drop, its smallest loss in six months.
A more detailed analysis of the components is available online.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the May 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 5 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| November 2008 | December 2008 | January 2009 | February 2009 | March 2009 | April 2009 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 226.8 | 224.6 | 222.0 | 218.8 | 215.6 | 213.3 | -1.1 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 123.1 | 117.7 | 109.5 | 101.2 | 97.2 | 96.0 | -1.2 |
| Business and personal services employment ('000) | 2,948 | 2,945 | 2,932 | 2,924 | 2,920 | 2,918 | -0.1 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 11,630 | 10,709 | 9,694 | 8,968 | 8,759 | 8,770 | 0.1 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 178,768 | 181,862 | 185,068 | 187,636 | 189,702 | 191,343 | 0.9 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 122.5 | 121.7 | 121.1 | 120.6 | 120.1 | 119.7 | -0.3 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 37.6 | 37.1 | 36.9 | 36.7 | 36.4 | 36.2 | -0.5 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 27,822 | 28,822 | 27,801 | 26,560 | 23,762 | 22,029 | -7.3 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.69 | 1.64 | 1.60 | -0.045 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,959 | 2,963 | 2,966 | 2,939 | 2,915 | 2,879 | -1.2 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,637 | 9,635 | 9,587 | 9,368 | 9,325 | 9,199 | -1.4 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 221.8 | 218.4 | 217.1 | 211.2 | 209.4 | 210.5 | 0.5 |
