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The composite leading index slowed to a 0.4% increase in July, after a gain of 0.7% in June. Most of the slowdown originated in the household sector, where three components fell. None of the seven other components decreased.
The housing index continued to retreat from its recent highs, declining 4.1%. Both housing starts and sales contributed to the decline. The slump in house sales was reflected in a 0.6% drop in furniture and appliance sales. Demand for other durable goods posted a fifth straight decline.
The manufacturing sector continued to recover steadily. New orders for durable goods rose 2.2%, their sixth straight advance. Rising shipments led the steady recovery of the ratio of shipments to sales. These increases in manufacturing demand are consistent with the continued growth in the US leading indicator, although it too saw growth moderate to 0.4% due to slowing household demand.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the September 2010 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 23, no. 9 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Francine Roy (613-951-3627; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| February 2010 | March 2010 | April 2010 | May 2010 | June 2010 | July 2010 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 232.5 | 235.1 | 237.4 | 239.2 | 240.9 | 241.8 | 0.4 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 138.1 | 138.1 | 138.8 | 136.4 | 132.8 | 127.4 | -4.1 |
| Business and personal services employment (thousands) | 2,932 | 2,950 | 2,960 | 2,955 | 2,967 | 2,976 | 0.3 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 11,366 | 11,591 | 11,744 | 11,747 | 11,787 | 11,804 | 0.1 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 211,503 | 212,990 | 214,194 | 215,554 | 216,896 | 217,585 | 0.3 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 128.1 | 129.1 | 130.3 | 131.2 | 132.0 | 132.5 | 0.4 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.6 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 36.7 | 0.0 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 20,704 | 21,225 | 21,246 | 22,022 | 22,519 | 23,023 | 2.2 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.81 | 1.85 | 1.88 | 1.90 | 0.025 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,879 | 2,907 | 2,930 | 2,957 | 2,970 | 2,953 | -0.6 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 10,082 | 10,075 | 10,022 | 9,977 | 9,923 | 9,868 | -0.6 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 237.4 | 238.8 | 243.7 | 243.2 | 241.3 | 241.9 | 0.2 |
