Demosim is a microsimulation model developed and maintained at Statistics Canada that is designed to produce population projections. Using the microdata file from the 2011 National Household Survey as its starting point, Demosim produces dynamic population projections for the provinces, territories, census metropolitan areas and selected smaller geographies, based on a number of characteristics: age, sex, visible minority group, place of birth, generation status, Aboriginal identity, registered Indian status, highest level of educational attainment, and labour force participation, among others. It does so by simulating events such as births, deaths, migrations and changes in level of education, according to various population growth scenarios. It can also produce projections of families and households on the basis of various characteristics.
Initially created in 2004 and still used today, the model has been used to generate projections of the Canadian population’s ethnocultural composition, the Aboriginal population, and the Canadian labour force, and for various analytical studies. It is also used to produce custom tabulations for users and to meet certain data needs of other Statistics Canada programs.
An overview of the most up-to-date version of the Demosim model can be found in the methodological document Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources. This document provides additional information about Demosim’s current content, including its base population, how it works and the data sources and methods used to model its components
For more information about the Demosim model and population projections based on microsimulation, please contact the Demography Division’s Client Services at 613-951-2320 (Ottawa area), 1-866-767-5611 (rest of Canada) or email at firstname.lastname@example.org