Demosim

Demosim is a microsimulation model developed and maintained at Statistics Canada, and designed for population projections. Using the microdata file from the Canadian Census of Population (20% sample) as its starting point, Demosim produces dynamic population projections at the level of the provinces, territories, census metropolitan areas and selected smaller geographies, based on a number of characteristics: age, sex, visible minority group, place of birth, generation status, Aboriginal identity, highest level of educational attainment, and labour force participation, among others. It does so by simulating events such as births, deaths, migrations and changes in level of education, according to various population growth scenarios.

Initially created in 2004 and on-going, the model has been used over time to generate projections of the Canadian population's ethnocultural composition, the Aboriginal population of Canada and the Canadian labour force. It is also used to produce custom tabulations for users and to meet some data needs of other Statistics Canada programs.

Overview

For an overview of the Demosim model, see the methodology sections of the following documents: Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 and Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031 . Together, the two sections, complementing each other, provide additional information about Demosim's current content, including its starting population, its general functioning and the data sources and methods used to model its components.

Contact us

For more information about the Demosim model and population projections based on microsimulation, please contact the Demography Division’s Client Services at 613-951-2320 or demography@statcan.gc.ca