Table 3
Probability of permanent retirementNote 1 at age 61 for employees still working at that age, 1941 and 1946 cohorts (complex models)Note 2

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Table 3 Probability of permanent retirement at age 61 for employees still working at that age, 1941 and 1946 cohorts (complex models)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table 3 Probability of permanent retirement at age 61 for employees still working at that age Men, Women, 1941 and 1946 (appearing as column headers).
  Men Women
1941 1946 1941 1946
Predicted probability of retirement at age 61 (percentage)
ER unemployment rateNote 3  
Low 10.2Note * 8.3 18.9Note * 14.5Note *
Moderate 11.4Note * 8.5 22.6Note * 15.7Note *
High 14.0Note * 8.9 30.9Note * 18.2Note *
Conjugal status  
No spouse (ref.) 17.0 12.0 15.6 11.2
Most recent marriage 11.2Note * 8.3Note * 27.1Note * 17.7Note *
Married to the same person since age 40 or earlier 11.6Note * 8.2Note * 27.4Note * 17.1Note *
Divorced 10.6Note * 7.0Note * 15.8 12.6
Use of disability tax credit during the year  
No (ref.) 11.5 8.4 22.7 15.5
Yes 47.9Note * 37.7Note * 62.4Note * 31.3Note *
Collected employment insurance benefits during the year  
No (ref.) 10.6 8.0 20.0 14.1
Yes 20.0Note * 14.0Note * 59.7Note * 40.2Note *
Unionization history at age 50  
No (ref.) 10.2 7.0 22.1 13.2
Yes, unionized at least 1 year since age 40 9.3 6.8 15.1Note * 11.4
Yes, unionized every year since age 40 14.6Note * 11.4Note * 31.1Note * 22.2Note *
Self-employed during the year  
No (ref.) 11.7 8.4 23.0 15.6
Yes 10.4 9.2 23.3 16.1
Personal socioeconomic status  
Lower quintile (ref.) 9.9 6.8 22.3 16.2
Second 11.0 7.6 19.0 13.2
Third 11.6 9.1Note * 19.5 12.8Note *
Fourth 14.3Note * 9.7Note * 23.7 15.8
Upper quintile 11.3 9.3Note * 30.7Note * 19.8
Number of years of contribution to a private pension plan  
0 (ref.) 6.9 5.5 19.5 12.9
1 to 4 years 11.2Note * 8.6Note * 18.4 15.3Note *
5 or more years 18.2Note * 12.0Note * 32.8Note * 18.5Note *
Note *

significantly different from reference category (ref.) at 5% or under

Return to note * referrer

Note 1.

A strict definition of retirement has been adopted here that requires retirement from the labour force for a minimum of four years.

Return to note 1 referrer

Note 2.

In addition to age and unemployment rate of the ER of residence, full models include living arrangements, disability (as shown by a claim for the disability credit), collection of employment insurance benefits during the year, unionization, an indicator of self-employment during the year (yes or no), socioeconomic status (measured by an individual's cumulative personal income between 1982 and 1991) and the number of years of contribution to a pension plan. A total of 12 models was estimated (i.e., a complex model by sex for each of the six cohorts born between 1941 and 1946).

Return to note 2 referrer

Note 3.

Although this table presents cumulative probabilities for unemployment rate levels (low, moderate and high), these probabilities were estimated using a survival model that includes a continuous unemployment rate variable. For more information, see "Data sources, definitions and method".

Return to note 3 referrer

Note: ER stands for economic region.
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