Appendix 3

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Table A.3.1
Results of probit estimation of the decision of high school dropouts1 to return to school

  Basic specification Full specification
  Men Women Men Women
  coefficient marginal effect p-value coefficient marginal effect p-value coefficient marginal effect p-value coefficient marginal effect p-value
Personal and family characteristics
Has one or more children -0.36 -0.10 0.20 0.23 0.08 0.45 -0.35 -0.09 0.22 0.17 0.06 0.57
Lives alone2 -0.23 -0.07 0.37 -0.12 -0.04 0.66 -0.27 -0.07 0.33 -0.18 -0.06 0.49
Main parent has postsecondary education 0.53 0.18*** 0.00 0.11 0.04 0.61 0.42 0.14** 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.86
Main parent's education unknown -0.02 -0.01 0.92 -0.40 -0.13 0.11 -0.08 -0.02 0.67 -0.41 -0.13 0.12
Educational experience and aspirations
Repeated a grade in primary school -0.21 -0.06 0.21 -0.24 -0.08 0.33 -0.14 -0.04 0.40 -0.23 -0.08 0.32
Last math course was postsecondary education preparatory 0.60 0.18** 0.01 0.11 0.04 0.67 0.55 0.16** 0.02 0.06 0.02 0.81
Last math course was grade 9 level or below 0.50 0.16* 0.09 -0.44 -0.15 0.14 0.44 0.14 0.14 -0.47 -0.16 0.11
Wants to get postsecondary education certification … … … … … … 0.43 0.14*** 0.00 0.47 0.17** 0.01
Dropout circumstances Dropped out in: (default: Grade 10 or earlier)
Grade 11 0.13 0.04 0.52 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.07 0.02 0.75 -0.02 -0.01 0.91
Grade 12 0.77 0.28*** 0.01 0.11 0.04 0.71 0.68 0.24** 0.02 0.11 0.04 0.73
Number of quarters since out of high school -0.02 -0.01 0.72 -0.20 -0.07*** 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.69 -0.19 -0.07*** 0.00
Number of quarters squared 0.00 0.00 0.97 0.01 0.00** 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.01 0.00** 0.02
Dropped out due to: (default: work/money reasons)
Academic reasons … … … … … … 0.08 0.02 0.65 0.36 0.13 0.16
Personal reasons … … … … … … 0.23 0.07 0.51 0.45 0.17 0.11
Other or unstated reason … … … … … … -0.11 -0.03 0.59 -0.02 -0.01 0.93
Labour market activities and conditions
Did not work between August and December 1999 -0.60 -0.15** 0.06 -0.30 -0.10 0.15 -0.56 -0.14* 0.08 -0.37 -0.13 0.24
Every 40 hours of work per month (August to December 1999) -0.14 -0.04*** 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 0.33 -0.13 -0.04*** 0.00 -0.07 -0.03 0.25
Unemployment rate (0 to 1, by economic region) 0.98 0.30 0.71 0.41 0.15 0.90 1.26 0.38 0.64 1.46 0.53 0.66
Probability (false prediction) (%) 34.0 35.9 33.3 32.3
Probability of return (%) 26.2 35.0 26.2 35.0
Number of observations 961 626 961 262

… not applicable

* Statistically significant between 0.10 and 0.05.

** Statistically significant between 0.05 and 0.01.

*** Statistically significant at 0.01 or lower.

1. Defined as 18 to 20 year-olds who had not completed high school and who were not attending school as of December, 1999.

2. Includes living with dependents as of December 1999, compared to living with family, a partner or friends/roomates.

Notes: All the underlying standard errors were calculated by bootstrap estimation to fully account for the sampling methodology of Statistics Canada.

Regional dummies were included in all of the regressions with the default being Ontario. No regional effect is found statistically significant at a 10% level or better.

The marginal effects are estimated at the means of the explanatory variables (as found in Table 4.1).