Demographic Changes in Canada from 1971 to 2001 Across an Urban-to-Rural Gradient

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Introduction

Methodology

Findings

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Conclusion

The purpose of this article was to make a contribution to demographic studies of urban and rural Canada. It considers the country’s different communities as part of a gradient ranging from the most urban to the most rural areas. This approach stemmed from the desire to go beyond the dichotomous approach that divides the territory by simply contrasting rural and urban areas. By applying a geographic structure that keeps the borders constant between 1971 and 2001, we were able to analyze population growth in the different regions without allowing the border changes during the period to interfere.

It became evident that growth was concentrated in the country’s largest metropolitan areas and in the rural areas on which they had a strong influence. Elsewhere, growth diminished as the degree of rurality increases. Migratory movements between the different types of areas have largely contributed to this differential growth: the most urbanized areas—with the exception of Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver—underwent significant migratory gains as well as strong growth. This was also the case with the strong MIZ areas, even though the findings suggest that the most rural communities experienced significant losses over time through migration. The internal migratory component appears to have played a key role in the evolution of population age structure by slowing aging in the areas that appealed most to young people (the largest CMAs) and by contributing to aging in the other areas where fertility was insufficient to offset the trend.

The strong growth in the three largest urban areas—Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver— is largely attributed to the large numbers of international immigrants who decided to settle there. The concentration of newcomers in these metropolises helped increase the gap between these three areas and the rest of the country in terms of ethnocultural diversity. 

This study benefited from the richness of the Census data for Canada’s population from 1971 to 2001. However, it does have limitations. The variables available for the Census have made it impossible to analyze internal migratory movements for all areas since 1971, even though the impact of their indirect effects appears to be evident in the age structure of the areas compared. Thus, two of the components of growth could not be included in this study: mortality and emigration. These two components may have contributed to the differential growth of the areas to the extent that, for instance, the life expectancy of Aboriginal people, who account for a large proportion of inhabitants in the more rural areas, is not as high as that of the rest of the population and where, secondly, the propensity to emigrate is greater among recent immigrants, who are currently concentrated in a small number of urban areas.

This study provided a better understanding of the overall demographic dynamics that characterize Canada’s urban and rural areas. Although reference is made on several occasions to the dynamics within each of the eight types of areas used, this is an entire field of study whose exploration would be both useful and fruitful. For instance, Canada’s largest metropolitan areas do not all grow at the same pace, nor do they grow for the same reasons. Moreover, the demographic dynamics in communities with no metropolitan influence is certainly different depending on whether it is a coastal, mining or tourist community. Each of the eight types of areas identified for this study is a result of the aggregation of communities with different histories; the study of this internal variability would enrich our understanding of Canadian demographics.

Of the different trends identified throughout this study, the most important one may well be the determining impact of the migratory component on growth in urban areas and on ethnocultural diversity. To a large extent, the continuation or reversal of trends observed in the past depends on the future evolution of migratory patterns resulting from individual choices about where to live. Past experience has shown us that these patterns may shift, sometimes suddenly, as a result of particular circumstances. Thus, their study over a longer period may prove to be quite useful.