Statistics Canada
www.statcan.gc.ca
Common menu bar links
Leading indicators
Archived Content
Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.
The rate of decline of the leading indicator slowed markedly to 0.1% in May, the smallest of nine consecutive declines. The shift from a 0.9% drop in April to a 0.1% dip in May was the largest monthly change in the index in either direction since December 1965. The turnaround reflected a 2.6% increase in the unsmoothed index, equalling its largest monthly gain in 30 years.
The largest turnarounds were in the housing and stock markets. The housing index shifted from a decline in April to a 1.0% gain in May, as existing home sales continued to recover rapidly. The stock market rose by 3.2%, led by an upturn in commodity prices as well as financial stocks.
Households remained cautious about spending more, apart from the gain for existing homes. Furniture and appliance sales continued to decline, which may reflect ongoing weakness in sales of newly-built homes. Outlays for other durable goods also fell steadily, despite a levelling off of auto sales. A small gain in personal services drove overall services employment higher.
Manufacturing continued to trend down. Despite steep cuts in output, shipments continued to fall faster than inventories of finished goods. New orders remained weak, especially for exports and capital goods. One encouraging sign for Canadian exports was that the leading indicator for the United States stopped declining, after over a year of steady losses.
A more detailed analysis of the components is available online.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the June 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 6 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| December 2008 | January 2009 | February 2009 | March 2009 | April 2009 | May 2009 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 224.6 | 222.1 | 218.9 | 215.9 | 213.9 | 213.7 | -0.1 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 117.8 | 109.6 | 101.4 | 97.5 | 96.4 | 97.4 | 1.0 |
| Business and personal services employment (thousands) | 2,945 | 2,932 | 2,924 | 2,920 | 2,918 | 2,920 | 0.1 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 10,709 | 9,694 | 8,968 | 8,759 | 8,770 | 9,047 | 3.2 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 181,834 | 185,040 | 187,608 | 189,684 | 191,659 | 193,119 | 0.8 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 121.8 | 121.2 | 120.7 | 120.1 | 119.7 | 119.7 | 0.0 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 37.1 | 36.9 | 36.7 | 36.5 | 36.3 | 36.5 | 0.6 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 28,823 | 27,814 | 26,591 | 23,747 | 22,028 | 19,478 | -11.6 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.69 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 1.57 | -0.035 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,963 | 2,966 | 2,940 | 2,916 | 2,880 | 2,850 | -1.0 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,635 | 9,588 | 9,388 | 9,361 | 9,258 | 9,202 | -0.6 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 218.6 | 217.2 | 211.5 | 210.3 | 212.0 | 217.5 | 2.6 |
