Case study: Border crossings by car from the United States to Canada: What drove people away?

In this activity, you will compare the number of automobiles entering Canada from the United States via the Fort Erie International Bridge for the years 2000 and 2001. During the first part of 2000, there were fewer crossings than in the first part of 2001. However, the border crossings between September through December 2001 were less than the same time period in the previous year.

Your main goal in this case study is to determine why there was such a large difference in the number of crossings, particularly in the months of September through December. How were events in the early part of 2000 different from those in the early part of the year 2001? Was the weather bad? Was the price of gasoline high? Before continuing, brainstorm some other reasons that might explain the difference.

Although difficult to do, it is critical that anyone who studies data should first question the methods used to make the calculations. If a new procedure to count cars has replaced the one used in previous years, then this could be the source of the varying numbers. Even if you assume that the same counting methods have been in place for both years, you should still question the counting methods used in the future.

Exercise 1

For this exercise, follow the directions below to access the data you will be using for this case study.

1. Log onto the E-STAT website.
2. Under the People section, click on the link for Travel and Tourism.
3. When the new page opens, select International Travel from the folder list.
4. Click on Table 427-0002 (Number of vehicles travelling between Canada and the United States, monthly).
5. Choose the following options:

• Geography: select Fort Erie, Ontario.
• Trip characteristics: select Total United States vehicles entering.
• Length of stay: select Length of stay, total.
• Mode of transportation: select Automobiles.
• Time: select from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2001.

Exercise 2

Using the results from Table 1, calculate the actual change by subtracting the 2000 value from the 2001 value. Then calculate the percent change in the total number of automobiles that entered Fort Erie for each month from 2000 to 2001 by expressing the amount of change as a percent of the 2000 value. Record the results in Table 2.

Exercise 3

Study the results in Table 2 and verify whether there was a significant difference between the last four months of 2000 and the same period in 2001. In both years, which of these four months shows the biggest drop in border crossings by car?

Exercise 4

The price of gasoline may be one possible explanation for the differences noted and verified in Exercise 3. To find out whether gas prices were higher in this time interval, visit Statistics Canada's E-STAT website at http://estat.statcan.ca/content/english/over.shtml. Navigate your way through to data for fuel prices. Could gas prices have influenced the lower number of cars entering Canada from the United States in the last four months of 2000?

Exercise 5

Using data from the Statistics Canada website, investigate whether the exchange rate for American to Canadian currency contributed to the lower number of cars entering Canada in the last four months of 2000. A suggested path to accessing this data is given below. You are welcome to find your own route.

At the Statistics Canada Home page, click Summary Tables on the left bar.

Find the table Exchange rates, interest rates, money supply and stock prices (http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/econ07.htm).

Click on the link for the Bank of Canada at the bottom of the table.

Once the page is opened, select English, then select More exchange rates.

Follow the link to the Monthly Average Exchange Rates page.

Many exchange rates are available. To better understand the low number of border crossings, you may want to study the noon exchange rates for the U. S. dollar from 2000 to 2001.

Exercise 6

Another possible explanation for the lower number of border crossings might be that the weather in the later part of 2001 was terrible compared with the weather at the same time in 2000. Visit the Environment Canada site. Determine whether the weather played a role in the lower numbers or could there be other unusual factors that contributed to the change (i.e., a historic event).

Exercise 7

Make a list of other reasons why the numbers might be lower. Using data collected from the Statistics Canada website and possibly other sites, determine whether these factors could have influenced the low numbers.

Nota :

You can also use E-STAT to confirm your calculations of the percent change from 2000 to 2001. Under the SCREEN OUTPUT formats, and after the text 'The output will contain', click the down arrow and select 'percent changes, year-to-year'.