Canadian Economic News, July 2025 Edition

Wildfires

• On July 10th, the Government of Manitoba declared a provincewide state of emergency under the Emergency Measures Act due to wildfires. The Government said the state of emergency is in effect for 30 days.
• On July 11th, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced that a province-wide fire ban prohibiting setting of outdoor fires on forest land or within 300 metres of forest land was in effect until further notice. On July 29th, the Government announced the fire ban had been lifted.
• On July 23rd, the Government of Canada announced it had approved a Request for Federal Assistance from the Government of Saskatchewan and would be providing Saskatchewan with additional firefighters to mitigate the wildfires, and helicopters to transport critical personnel.
• On July 30th, the Government of Nova Scotia announced a ban on open fires across the entire province due to hot, dry conditions. The Government said the ban would remain in place until October 15th.

Canada's internal trade

• The Governments of Ontario and Alberta announced they had signed two Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) to build new pipelines, rail lines and other energy and trade infrastructure. The Governments said new pipelines will connect western Canadian oil and gas to new and existing refineries in southern Ontario and will expand export opportunities, including by way of a new James Bay deep-sea port in northern Ontario, while new rail lines will connect Ontario's Ring of Fire region, critical mineral mining projects and processing facilities to western Canadian ports.
• Later, the Governments announced that Saskatchewan had joined in signing the MOU.
• The Government of Ontario announced it had signed two MOUs, one with British Columbia and a second with the three territories, to boost internal trade, improve labour mobility and tear down long-standing barriers to doing business.
• The Governments of New Brunswick and Manitoba announced they had signed an MOU on free trade and labour mobility.
• The Governments of Alberta and the Yukon announced they had signed an MOU to expand economic cooperation, including removing barriers so goods, services, and workers can flow freely across borders.
• The Government of Saskatchewan announced it had signed an MOU with Manitoba to collaborate on enhancing interprovincial trade between the two jurisdictions.
• The Government also said it had signed an MOU with Prince Edward Island to collaborate on the removal of trade barriers across the two jurisdictions.
• The Government of British Columbia announced it had signed separate agreements with Ontario, Manitoba, and the Yukon to continue working to remove trade barriers between provinces and territories.
• The Government of the Yukon announced it had signed three MOUs, one with Ontario, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut; one with British Columbia; and one with Alberta to commit the jurisdictions to work together to identify barriers to trade and labour mobility, identify opportunities for regulatory alignment and recognition, and simplify interjurisdictional requirements for professionals and businesses.
• The Governments of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, along with Arctic Gateway Group (AGG), announced they had agreed to enhance infrastructure, streamline supply chains and boost access to global markets via Canada's only deepwater Arctic port. The Governments said the MOU outlines a five-year roadmap with annual progress reviews, formalizing a shared commitment to expand infrastructure, activate trade networks, and mobilize federal support.
• The Government of Manitoba announced it had signed new economic co-operation agreements with the governments of New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Prince Edward Island to break down trade barriers, increase labour mobility and create new opportunities for businesses and workers.
• The Governments of the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut announced they had signed an MOU on improving trade across the North through a Territorial Trade Zone Framework. The Governments said the framework would support deeper cooperation by liberalizing trade and labour mobility, coordinating joint advocacy to the federal government on trade-enabling infrastructure,  and aligning efforts on investment attraction and regulatory frameworks.
• The Governments of Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick announced they had signed an MOU that strengthens collaboration between the two provinces on interprovincial trade and labour mobility.

Resources

• Kitimat, British Columbia-based LNG Canada Development Inc. announced it had successfully loaded a first cargo of liquefied natural gas destined for global markets, marking the start of operations at Canada's first large-scale LNG export facility.
• Vancouver-based Teck Resources Limited announced board approval for construction of the Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension Project to extend the life of the project from 2028 to 2046. Teck said the project capital estimate is between $2.1 to $2.4 billion, with construction set to commence in full in August 2025.

Other news

• The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%. The last change in the target for the overnight rate was a 25 basis points cut in March 2025.
• The Government of Canada announced on July 10th the extension of the temporary adjustment to EI regional unemployment rates until October 11, 2025. The Government said it had introduced new temporary EI measures on March 23rd to support Canadian workers whose jobs were impacted by the current economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs.
• The Government of Canada announced it had implemented a new Interim Policy on Reciprocal Procurement and that, under this new policy, suppliers from countries that limit Canadian access to their own government contracts can be restricted from bidding on Canadian federal contracts.
• The Government of Canada announced it was strengthening the Tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for steel products implemented on June 27, 2025 in response to both U.S. tariffs on steel and global steel overproduction. The Government said that effective August 1, 2025, the TRQs would be extended to countries that have a free trade agreement in force with Canada, with the exception of the United States and Mexico, and that this will result in a 50% surtax being applied on steel imports above 100% of 2024 levels. The Government also said that a 25% surtax would be applied on imports from all countries other than the U.S. that contain steel melted and poured in China.
• The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced that the sugar sweetened beverage tax was officially eliminated on July 1st.
• Toronto-based First National Financial Corporation announced it had entered into a definitive arrangement agreement with Regal Bidco Inc., a newly-formed acquisition vehicle controlled by private equity funds managed by Birch Hill Equity Partners Management Inc. and private equity funds managed by Brookfield Asset Management, for an aggregate total equity value of approximately $2.9 billion. First National said the transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to obtaining the required shareholder, court, and regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions.

United States and other international news

• On July 4th, the White House announced that U.S. President Donald J. Trump had officially signed The One Big Beautiful Bill into law.
• On July 7th, the White House announced that U.S. President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order determining that certain tariff rates, which were initially set to expire on July 9th, would expire on August 1, 2025. The White House said that President Trump also sent tariff letters to many countries informing them of their new reciprocal tariff rates, which will take effect on August 1st.
• On July 18th, the White House announced that U.S. President Donald J. Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law. The White House said the legislation creates the first-ever Federal regulatory system for stablecoins.
• On July 23rd, U.S. President Donald J. Trump announced an economic agreement with Japan and that imports from Japan would be subject to a baseline 15% tariff rate. The White House also said that Japan will invest $550 billion directed by the United States to rebuild and expand core American industries.
• On July 30th, the White House announced that President Donald J. Trump had signed a Proclamation that imposes universal 50% tariffs on imports of semi-finished copper products (such as copper pipes, wires, rods, sheets, and tubes) and copper-intensive derivative products (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components), effective August 1st.
• Also on July 30th, the White House announced that President Donald J. Trump had signed an Executive Order suspending duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value shipments. The White House said that effective August 29th, imported goods sent through means other than the international postal network that are valued at or under USD $800 and that would otherwise qualify for the de minimis exemption will be subject to all applicable duties.
• The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. The last change in the target range was a 25 basis points cut in December 2024. The Committee also said that it would continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85%. The last change in the cash rate target was a 25 basis points cut in May 2025.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR), its main policy rate, unchanged at 3.25%. The last change in the OCR was a 25 basis points cut in May 2025.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) left its three key interest rates unchanged at 2.00% (deposit facility), 2.15% (main refinancing operations), and 2.40% (marginal lending facility). The last change in these rates was a 25 basis points reduction in June 2025.
• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced it will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.50%. The last change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate was a 25 basis points increase in January 2025.
• The eight OPEC+ countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman - which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, announced they would implement a production adjustment of 548 thousand barrels per day, equivalent to four monthly increments, in August 2025.
• New Jersey-based CoreWeave, Inc., an AI cloud-computing company, and Core Scientific, Inc. of Delaware, a provider of digital asset mining and hosting services, announced they had signed a definitive agreement under which CoreWeave would acquire Core Scientific in an all-stock transaction for a total equity value of approximately USD $9.0 billion. The companies said the transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory and stockholder approval.
• Michigan-based Dow Chemical Company announced that its Board of Directors had approved the shutdown of three upstream assets in Europe, including an ethylene cracker in Germany, Chlor-alkali & vinyl (CAV) assets in Germany, and a basics siloxanes plant in the United Kingdom. Dow said the shutdowns in Germany will occur in the fourth quarter of 2027 while the U.K. shutdown will occur mid-year 2026.
• Nebraska-based Union Pacific Corporation and Norfolk Southern Corporation of Atlanta, Georgia announced an agreement whereby Union Pacific would acquire Norfolk Southern in a stock and cash transaction that implies an enterprise value of USD $85 billion for Norfolk Southern. The companies said they are targeting closing the transaction by early 2027, subject to Surface Transportation Board review and approval within its statutory timeline, customary closing conditions, and shareholder approval.
• Texas-based Baker Hughes and Chart Industries of Ball Ground, Georgia announced they had entered into a definitive agreement under which Baker Hughes would acquire all outstanding shares of Chart's common stock for a total enterprise value of USD $13.6 billion. The companies said the transaction is expected to be completed by mid-year 2026, subject to customary conditions, including approval by Chart shareholders, and the receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.
• Netherlands-based Stellantis N.V. announced its decision to discontinue its hydrogen fuel cell technology development program. Stellantis said that due to limited availability of hydrogen refueling infrastructure, high capital requirements, and the need for stronger consumer purchasing incentives, it does not anticipate the adoption of hydrogen-powered light commercial vehicles before the end of the decade.

Financial market news

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at USD $69.26 per barrel on July 31st, up from a closing value of USD $65.11 at the end of June. Western Canadian Select crude oil traded in the USD $52.00 to $58.00 per barrel range throughout July. The Canadian dollar closed at 72.23 cents U.S. on July 31st, down from 73.30 cents U.S. at the end of June. The S&P/TSX composite index closed at 27,259.78 on July 31st, up from 26,857.11 at the end of June.