Canadian Economic News, September 2025 Edition

Wildfires

• The Government of Nova Scotia announced on August 29th that the risk of wildfires had lowered enough in some counties, including Cape Breton, Antigonish, and Halifax, for restrictions on travel and activities in the woods to be lifted. The Government said restrictions in other counties would remain in place until October 15th, as would the provincial burn ban. On September 18th, the Government announced that restrictions on travel and activities in the woods were lifted in all remaining counties except Annapolis. On September 26th, the Government announced that the ban on open fires was lifted in all counties except Annapolis.
• The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced on September 8th that the province-wide outdoor fire ban issued on August 5th would be extend. On September 12th, the Government announced the fire ban had been lifted.
• The Government of Prince Edward Island announced on September 8th it had extended the fire closure order that bans all fires in the province, including campfires, until September 22nd or further notice. On September 22nd, the Government announced that the most recent fire closure order was ending and would not be renewed.

Resources

• Calgary-based Cenovus Energy Inc. announced it had reached an agreement for the sale of its 50% interest in WRB Refining LP to its joint venture partner Phillips 66 of Texas for approximately $1.9 billion. Cenovus said the transaction is expected to close around the end of the third quarter, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
• Calgary-based Imperial Oil Limited announced plans to restructure and said the transition process is expected to reduce employee roles by approximately 20% by the end of 2027. Imperial said it expects to record a one-time restructuring charge of approximately $330 million before-tax in the third quarter of 2025.
• Ksi Lisims LNG, a proposed net-zero LNG export facility on British Columbia's northwest coast, co-developed by the Nisg̱a'a Nation, Western LNG of Texas, and Rockies LNG of Calgary, announced it had received an Environmental Assessment Certificate from the Government of British Columbia and a positive Decision Statement from the Government of Canada. Ksi Lisims said the Certificate is a key regulatory milestone required to proceed with construction, which could begin as early as this year.
• Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. announced it had reached a final investment decision on two Gas Transmission projects: the Algonquin Reliable Affordable Resilient Enhancement project (AGT Enhancement) in the U.S. Northeast and the Eiger Express Pipeline (Eiger) to serve the U.S. Gulf Coast LNG market. Enbridge said it expects to complete the AGT Enhancement in 2029 and the Eiger in 2028.
• Vancouver-based Teck Resources Limited and Anglo American plc of the United Kingdom announced they had reached an agreement to combine the two companies in a merger of equals to form the Anglo Teck group, with its global headquarters located in Vancouver. The companies said the merger is expected to close within 12-18 months, subject to shareholder approval and to the completion of conditions customary for a transaction of this nature, including approval under the Investment Canada Act and competition and regulatory approvals in various jurisdictions globally.
• Toronto-based Barrick Mining Corporation announced it had reached an agreement to sell the Hemlo Gold Mine in Ontario to Carcetti Capital Corp. of Vancouver for gross proceeds of up to USD $1.09 billion. Barrick said the transaction is expected to be completed within the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions and obtaining required regulatory approvals.
• Burnaby, British Columbia-based Interfor Corporation announced plans to reduce its lumber production by approximately 145 million board feet between September and December of 2025, representing approximately 12% of its normal operating stance. Interfor said the curtailments are expected to impact all of its operating regions, with both the Canadian and U.S. operations expected to reduce their production levels by approximately 12% each.

Manufacturing

• Sault Ste. Marie-based Algoma Steel Group Inc. announced the execution of binding term sheets to secure $500 million in liquidity support, comprising $400 million loan facilities from the Government of Canada under the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility and $100 million loan facilities from the Province of Ontario. Algoma said the Facilities provide financial flexibility amid prolonged trade uncertainty and position it to advance its ongoing business transformation.
• Kansas-based INVISTA announced its decision to discontinue production at its site in Maitland, Ontario and relocate production to its Victoria, Texas site over the coming months. INVISTA said approximately 100 roles directly supporting Maitland operations would be impacted.

Minimum wage

• Nunavut's minimum wage increased from $19.00 to $19.75 per hour on September 1st.
• The Northwest Territories' minimum wage increased from $16.70 per hour to $16.95 per hour on September 1st.

Other news

• The Government of Canada announced on September 5th a series of new measures for workers and businesses in those sectors most impacted by U.S. tariffs and trade disruptions, including:
  • a new reskilling package for up to 50,000 workers, make Employment Insurance more flexible, and launch a new digital jobs and training platform;
  • invest $5 billion through a new fund with flexible terms to help firms in all sectors impacted by tariffs;
  • a new Buy Canadian Policy to ensure the federal government buys from Canadian suppliers;
  • expand Business Development Bank of Canada loans for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to $5 million; provide more flexible financing through the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan Facility; and give the auto sector flexibility by waiving 2026 model year vehicles from Electric Vehicle Availability Standard requirements and by launching an immediate 60-day review to reduce costs;
  • assist Canada's canola and agricultural producers; and
  • expand support to SMEs to $1 billion over three years through the Regional Tariff Response Initiative, with flexible terms, and increase new non-repayable contributions to eligible businesses impacted by tariffs across all affected sectors, including agricultural and seafood.
• The Government also said it had launched the Major Projects Office (MPO) to fast-track nation-building projects.
• The Government of Canada announced on September 11th the first series of projects being referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO) for consideration, including:
  • LNG Canada Phase 2 in Kitimat, British Columbia that will double LNG Canada's production of liquified natural gas;
  • Darlington New Nuclear Project in Bowmanville, Ontario that will make Canada the first G7 country to have an operational small modular reactor (SMR);
  • Contrecœur Terminal Container Project in Contrecœur, Québec that will expand the Port of Montreal's capacity by approximately 60%;
  • McIlvenna Bay Foran Copper Mine Project in East-Central Saskatchewan that will supply copper and zinc; and
  • Red Chris Mine expansion in Northwest British Columbia that will extend the lifespan of the mine by over a decade and increase Canada's annual copper production by over 15%.
• The Government said these projects represent investments of more than $60 billion in the economy.
• The Government of Canada announced on September 14th it had launched Build Canada Homes – a new federal agency that will build affordable housing at scale. The Government said it would build deeply affordable and community housing for low-income households, and partner with private market developers to build affordable homes for the Canadian middle class.
• The Government of Canada announced on September 16th that prairie businesses impacted by global trade disruptions could now apply for funding through the Regional Tariff Response Initiative (RTRI).
• The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. The last change in the target for the overnight rate was a 25 basis points cut in March 2025.
• TD Canada Trust, RBC Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), BMO Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), Scotiabank, and Laurentian Bank of Canada announced they were decreasing their Canadian dollar prime lending rates by 25 basis points from 4.95% to 4.70%, effective September 18th.
• On September 25th, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) announced that all CUPW members at Canada Post were on a nation-wide strike. Canada Post said that mail and parcels would not be processed or delivered for the duration of the strike, and that some post offices would be closed.
• Calgary-based WestJet announced an agreement with Boeing for the purchase of 60 737-10 MAX narrowbody aircraft, with options for an additional 25. The company said the order also includes seven 787-9 Dreamliner widebody aircraft with options for four more. WestJet said this order increases its current order book to 123 aircraft and 40 options, while extending its fleet growth plans through 2034.
• Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire an approximate 13% indirect equity interest in Sempra Infrastructure Partners of California for approximately USD $3.0 billion, alongside affiliates of New York-based KKR, a global investment firm. CPP Investments said the transaction is expected close in the second to third quarter of 2026, subject to necessary regulatory and other approvals and closing conditions.

United States and other international news

• The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25%. The last change in the target range was a 25 basis points cut in December 2024. The Committee also said that it would continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) left its three key interest rates unchanged at 2.00% (deposit facility), 2.15% (main refinancing operations), and 2.40% (marginal lending facility). The last change in these rates was a 25 basis points reduction in June 2025.
• The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.0%. The last change in the Bank Rate was a 25 basis points cut in August 2025.
• The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee of Norway's Norges Bank reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. The last change in the policy rate was a 25 basis points decrease in June 2025.
• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced it will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.50%. The last change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate was a 25 basis points increase in January 2025. The BoJ also said it had decided to sell its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment  trusts (J-REITs) to the market in accordance with the fundamental principles for their disposal which include the principle to avoid inducing destabilizing effects on the financial markets.
• The Executive Board of Sweden's Riksbank lowered the repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%. The last change in the repo rate was a 25 basis points reduction in June 2025.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60%. The last change in the cash rate target was a 25 basis points cut in August 2025.
• The eight participating OPEC+ countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman - announced they would implement a production adjustment of 137 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. The members said this adjustment would be implemented in October 2025.
• Pennsylvania and Illinois-based The Kraft Heinz Company announced that its Board of Directors had unanimously approved a plan to separate the Company into two independent, publicly traded companies. Kraft Heinz said it expects the transaction to close in the second half of 2026.
• Washington State-based Starbucks announced that overall company-operated coffeehouses in North America would decline by about 1% in fiscal year 2025 after accounting for both openings and closures. Starbucks also said it would eliminate approximately 900 current non-retail partner roles and close many open positions.
• California-based Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an investor consortium comprised of PIF of Saudi Arabia, Silver Lake of California, and Affinity Partners of Florida in an all-cash transaction that values EA at an enterprise value of approximately $55 billion. EA said the transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of required regulatory approvals and approval by EA stockholders.
• Germany-based Bosch announced a reduction of around 13,000 jobs, particularly at its Mobility locations in Germany. Bosch said the time frames for the necessary adjustments vary and extend until the end of 2030.

Financial market news

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at USD $62.37 per barrel on September 30th, down from a closing value of USD $64.01 at the end of August. Western Canadian Select crude oil traded in the USD $49.00 to $54.00 per barrel range throughout September. The Canadian dollar closed at 71.83 cents U.S. on September 29th, down from 72.77 cents U.S. at the end of August. The S&P/TSX composite index closed at 30,022.81 on September 30th, up from 28,564.45 at the end of August.