Canadian Economic News, October 2025 Edition

Resources

• Calgary-based Strathcona Resources Ltd. announced on October 10th that it was terminating its take-over bid for MEG Energy Corporation.
• Calgary-based Cenovus Energy announced it had acquired 8.5% of MEG Energy's common shares. Later, Cenovus announced it had acquired additional MEG shares, brining its total to 9.8% of MEG shares issued and outstanding.
• Calgary-based Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. and Cygnet Energy Ltd. announced they had entered into an arrangement agreement under which Cygnet would acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Kiwetinohk for an enterprise value of $1.4 billion. The companies said closing would occur after December 16th, subject to satisfaction or waiver of all conditions, including required shareholder approvals, court approval and customary closing conditions.
• Burnaby, British Columbia-based Interfor Corporation announced it would further temporarily reduce lumber production in the fourth quarter of 2025 across its operations in British Columbia, Ontario, the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and the U.S. South. Interfor said that these curtailments were expected to reduce lumber production by approximately 250 million board feet, or 26%, as compared to the second quarter of 2025.
• Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric Company, Cameco Corporation of Saskatoon, and Brookfield Asset Management of New York announced that the United States Government had entered into a strategic partnership to accelerate the deployment of nuclear power and that at the center of the new strategic partnership, at least USD $80 billion of new reactors would be constructed across the United States using Westinghouse nuclear reactor technology.

Minimum wage

• Manitoba's minimum wage increased from $15.80 to $16.00 per hour on October 1st.
• Nova Scotia's minimum wage increased from $15.70 to $16.50 per hour on October 1st.
• Ontario's minimum wage increased from $17.20 to $17.60 per hour on October 1st.
• Prince Edward Island's minimum wage increased from $16.00 to $16.50 per hour on October 1st.
• Saskatchewan's minimum wage increased from $15.00 to $15.35 per hour on October 1st.

Wildfires

• The Government of Nova Scotia announced on October 1st that wildfire season was extended provincewide to October 31st due to continued fire activity in the province. The Government said the full burn ban would remain in effect in Annapolis County and daily burn restrictions would continue to apply in all other counties to the end of the month.
• The Government of Quebec announced on October 21st it had completely lifted the ban on open fires in or near the forest due to the significant amounts of rain that had fallen. The Government said the measure had been in force since September 30th.

Other news

• The Government of Canada announced relief to support Canadian businesses affected by the countermeasures Canada had announced in response to the tariffs imposed by the United States and that:
  • the exemption for U.S. goods used in manufacturing, processing, or food and beverage packaging had been extended for an additional two months, and now included goods used in agricultural production;
  • the temporary exemption from tariffs on imports of U.S. goods that are used to support public health, health care, public safety, and national security objectives had also been extended for an additional two months; and
  • further relief from Canada's tariffs on imports from the U.S. and China had now been implemented for companies that met strict conditions such as demonstrating short supply or existing contractual obligations.
• The Government of Canada announced reductions to the import quotas of General Motors (GM) and Stellantis following the automakers' decisions to scale back their manufacturing presence in Canada. The Government said it was reducing GM's annual remission quota by 24.2%, and Stellantis' annual remission quota by 50%.
• The Government of Ontario announced it was investing $1 billion in small modular reactors (SMRs) at Darlington Nuclear Station. The Government said construction on the first SMR began in May 2025, with the SMR expected to come online in 2030. The Government also said that the Federal Government was investing $2 billion.
• The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The last change in the target for the overnight rate was a 25 basis points cut in September 2025.
• TD Canada Trust, RBC Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), BMO Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), Scotiabank, and Laurentian Bank of Canada announced they were decreasing their Canadian dollar prime lending rates by 25 basis points from 4.70% to 4.45%, effective October 30th.
• The Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) announced that starting October 11th it would move from a nation-wide strike action to rotating strikes. Canada Post said plans were now under way to ensure a safe and orderly restart of its national operations, which were shut down on September 25th.
• The Alberta Teacher's Association (ATA) announced on October 6th that 51,000 teachers had gone on strike. The Government of Alberta announced on October 3rd that ahead of the teacher strike, it was introducing more supports for families and students, including increasing October funding rates for eligible children in grades 1 to 6 who were attending out-of-school care full time. On October 27th, the Government of Alberta announced it had proposed Bill 2, the Back to School Act, that, if passed, would end the province-wide teachers' strike and legislate a new collective agreement. On October 28th, the ATA announced that given the imminent passage and coming into force of Bill 2, the Association would instruct teachers to return to their classrooms.
• Oshawa-based General Motors of Canada announced the end of production of the BrightDrop electric delivery van built at CAMI Assembly in Ingersoll, Ontario. GM said BrightDrop production would not be moved to another site and had been suspended since May 2025.

United States and other international news

• The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The last change in the target range was a 25 basis points cut in September 2025. The Committee also said that it had decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1st.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR), its main policy rate, by 50 basis points to 2.50%. The last change in the OCR was a 25 basis points cut in August 2025.
• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced it will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.50%. The last change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate was a 25 basis points increase in January 2025.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) left its three key interest rates unchanged at 2.00% (deposit facility), 2.15% (main refinancing operations), and 2.40% (marginal lending facility). The last change in these rates was a 25 basis points reduction in June 2025.
• The eight OPEC+ countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman - announced they would implement a production adjustment of 137 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. OPEC+ said this adjustment would be implemented in November 2025.
• Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway and Occidental Petroleum Corporation of Texas announced a definitive agreement for Berkshire Hathaway to acquire Occidental's chemical business, OxyChem, in an all-cash transaction for USD $9.7 billion. The companies said the transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.
• California-based AMD and OpenAI announced a 6 gigawatt agreement to power OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure across multiple generations of AMD Instinct GPUs. The companies said that under the agreement, OpenAI would work with AMD as a core strategic compute partner to drive large-scale deployments of AMD technology and that the first 1 gigawatt deployment of AMD GPUs is set to begin in the second half of 2026.
• The Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership (AIP), MGX of the United Arab Emirates, and Blackrock's Global Infrastructure Partnership of New York announced they will acquire 100% of the equity in Texas-based Aligned Data Centers for an implied enterprise value of approximately USD $40 billion. AIP said the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.
• Ohio-based Fifth Third Bancorp and Comerica Incorporated of Texas announced they had entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Fifth Third will acquire Comerica in an all-stock transaction valued at USD $10.9 billion. The banks said the transaction is anticipated to close at the end of the first quarter of 2026, subject to shareholder and customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions.
• California-based Meta announced that it and funds managed by Blue Owl Capital of New York had entered into a joint venture agreement which will develop and own the Hyperion data center campus in Louisiana. Meta said the parties had committed to fund their respective pro rata of the approximately USD $27 billion in total development costs for the buildings and long-lived power, cooling, and connectivity infrastructure at the campus.
• Netherlands-based Stellantis announced plans to invest USD $13 billion over the next four years to grow its business in the United States market and to increase its domestic manufacturing footprint. Stellantis said the investment will support the addition of more than 5,000 jobs at plants in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana.
• Switzerland-based Nestlé S.A. announced it planned to reduce its global headcount by around 16,000 over the next two years. Nestlé said the reduction includes around 12,000 white-collar professionals across functions and geographies and a further 4,000 as part of ongoing productivity initiatives in manufacturing and supply chain.
• Switzerland-based Novartis AG announced that it had entered into an agreement to acquire Avidity Biosciences, Inc., a California-based biopharmaceutical company, for total consideration of approximately USD $12 billion. Novartis said it expects the merger to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.

Financial market news

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at USD $60.98 per barrel on October 31st, down from a closing value of USD $62.37 at the end of September. Western Canadian Select crude oil traded in the USD $44.00 to $51.00 per barrel range throughout October. The Canadian dollar closed at 71.34 cents U.S. on October 31st, down from 71.83 cents U.S. at the end of September. The S&P/TSX composite index closed at 30,260.74 on October 31st, up from 30,022.81 at the end of September.