December 17, 2013
OTTAWA — On September 26, 2013, Statistics Canada published population estimates, based on the 2011 Census of Population, for Canada, the provinces and territories. The estimate published for the Manitoba population on July 1, 2013 was 1,265,015.
The 2011 Census population counts are the foundation of the Manitoba population estimates. In the 2011 Census, the collection response rate for Manitoba, at 97.4%, was one of the highest among the provinces and compared favourably to response rates achieved in previous censuses. The response rate confirms that, while flooding did delay collection in Manitoba, the three month collection period (from May to July) allowed Statistics Canada to fully and properly enumerate the provincial population.
As has been done for all recent censuses, Statistics Canada has conducted post-censal studies to assess the extent of any over-coverage or under-coverage of the population. Net under-coverage for the province of Manitoba was assessed at 1.8%, one of the lowest rates among the provinces, and significantly lower than in the 2006 Census.
As is always done, the final population estimate for the province of Manitoba was derived by adjusting the 2011 Census population count to include the estimate of net under-coverage. This provides an estimate of the provincial population on May 10, 2011. Estimates for subsequent dates and years are then generated by adding births, subtracting deaths and adjusting for estimated international and interprovincial migration. This process, which is the same process used for all provinces and territories, resulted in the estimate of 1,265,015 published on September 26th.
Throughout this process, Statistics Canada has kept the statistical offices or official statistical representatives of all provinces and territories informed. The Agency has sought their input, and particularly any evidence that they might offer to demonstrate that the population estimate is incorrect.
Information provided by the province of Manitoba was carefully assessed and a comprehensive review was conducted by Statistics Canada of the processes and findings leading to the Manitoba population estimate. Statistics Canada found no evidence of any error in its processes or findings and confirmed its population estimate for the province at July 1, 2013 as 1,265,015.
Statistics Canada has received no new evidence that would warrant any further review of this estimate. It is essential for the population estimates program for Canada, the provinces and territories that estimates be based on a common, transparent and robust statistical methodology and be free of arbitrary adjustments.
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