Impacts of the partial US government shutdown on the upcoming release of Canadian international trade data

Since 1990, Canada and the United States have shared merchandise import data under a four-party agreement involving customs and statistical agencies from both countries. Under this agreement, the import data from one country are used to compile the export data of the other. This arrangement ensures optimal data quality and comparability and reduces the administrative burden on exporting companies since they only need to report customs declarations to the importing country. The arrangement also includes the simultaneous publication of international merchandise trade data on predetermined release dates.

On October 1, 2025, a partial shutdown of the US federal government came into effect, suspending operations at certain government agencies, including the United States Census Bureau (USCB), the US statistical agency responsible for compiling international merchandise trade statistics. This shutdown directly impacts Statistics Canada's ability to compile and publish Canadian international merchandise trade data, as Statistics Canada will not receive data on Canada's exports to the United States for the duration of the shutdown. The most recent disruption prior to this was in December 2018, when a 35-day US government shutdown led to the postponement of the international merchandise trade statistics publication for the December 2018 reference month and the rescheduling of several subsequent releases once US operations resumed.

Delayed release of Canadian trade data and potential impacts on macroeconomic indicators

As a result of the current disruption, Statistics Canada's assessment is that it will no longer be possible to publish the Canadian international merchandise trade data for September 2025 as scheduled on November 4, 2025. The release of monthly international merchandise trade statistics will therefore be delayed until the USCB resumes normal operations and a new joint release date is agreed upon.

Similarly, the publication of Canadian international trade in services data for September 2025 will also not occur as scheduled on November 4, 2025. Complete merchandise trade data, as well as information published by other US federal agencies, are critical inputs to the monthly trade in services program, and will not be available in time to meet the scheduled publication date.

Other quarterly macroeconomic indicators compiled by Statistics Canada rely on international merchandise trade data as an input, including the quarterly balance of international payments (BOP) and the headline indicator, quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) by expenditure. If the September 2025 international merchandise trade data are unavailable when these statistics are compiled for the third quarter of 2025, Statistics Canada will produce special estimates of Canadian exports to the United States for that month. The third quarter BOP and GDP by expenditure statistics will be published as scheduled, but the special estimates, which would rely in part on modelled data, would be subject to larger than normal revisions once actual data become available. It should be noted that the monthly GDP by industry and the quarterly GDP by income are not directly affected by the current situation.

While Statistics Canada's current approach is to delay the publication of monthly international trade statistics, other options may be considered if the shutdown persists for an extended period in the United States. Statistics Canada is closely monitoring the situation and will provide updates to users as new developments arise.