Table 8
Regression models for rates of selected theft offences,
city of Toronto census tracts, 2006
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Shoplifting | Theft from a motor vehicle | Motor vehicle theft | Other thefts | |
---|---|---|---|---|
number | ||||
Number of incidents | 9,214 | 15,731 | 5,804 | 19,972 |
percent | ||||
Explanatory power 1 | 20.1 | 27.5 | 33.8 | 56.6 |
regression coefficients (b) | ||||
Socio-economic characteristics | ||||
Access to socio-economic resources | -0.187*** | -0.098* | -0.192*** | … |
Economic vulnerability | … | … | … | … |
Ethno-cultural characteristics | ||||
Recent immigrants | … | … | … | -0.319*** |
Ethno-cultural diversity | … | … | … | 0.083** |
Demographic characteristics | ||||
Children | … | … | 0.348*** | -0.113** |
Elderly people | … | -0.133*** | … | -0.071* |
Young men | … | … | 0.135** | … |
Urban characteristics | ||||
Centrality | … | 0.263*** | … | … |
Urbanization | … | 0.097* | … | 0.143** |
Major repairs | … | … | 0.085* | 0.194*** |
Subway or train station | … | … | 0.221** | … |
Economic activity | ||||
Commercial activity | 0.632*** | … | 0.116* | 0.521*** |
Manufacturing jobs | -0.268*** | … | 0.092* | … |
Office jobs | … | … | … | -0.236*** |
Bars | -0.131** | 0.099* | … | … |
Spatial lag 1 | … | 0.382*** | 0.368*** | 0.379*** |
not applicable (variables excluded from
the model because they are not significant [p<0.05])
Significantly associated with dependent variable
p<0.05
Significantly associated with dependent variable
p<0.01
Significantly associated with dependent variable
p<0.001
For the shoplifting rate model, data represent
the coefficient of determination (R2). For the other models, which
are autoregressive, they are the squared correlation coefficients between
observed and predicted values. See "Spatial autocorrelation and regression"
in the Methodology section for more information on autoregressive spatial
models.
Note(s):
Based on 524 census tracts. Regression models include intercept.
Population at risk includes residents and workers.
Source(s):
Statistics Canada, Incident-based Uniform Crime Reporting Survey,
geocoded database, 2006 and 2006 Census.
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