Section 1: Total population
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This section presents preliminary estimates of the population of Canada, the provinces and territories on July 1, 2012, along with an analysis of the components of growth estimated for the period going from July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2012.
National portrait
Population and growth
On July 1, 2012, Canada's population was estimated at 34,880,500, up 396,500 compared with the same date the previous year. This represents a 1.1 % increase for the year ended June 30, 2012 (2011/2012). This increase was slightly larger than the one observed in the previous year (+1.0 %) and similar to the average increase for the last 30 years (+1.1 %) (see Chart 1.1). Except for the period between 1986 and 1990, when rates exceeded 1.3% including the peak reached in 1988/1989 (+1.8%), this rate has shown little variation in 30 years, ranging between 0.8% and 1.2%.
International comparison
Canada's annual growth rate in 2011/2012 (+1.1%) exceeds that of other industrialized countries for comparable periods, 1 including the United States (+0.7%), Italy (+0.3%) and France (+0.5%) as well as other countries, such as China (+0.5%), Spain (+0.1%), Sweden (+0.7%) and the United Kingdom (+0.1%). During the same period, several industrialized countries recorded nil or negative population growth, including Japan (-0.3%) and Germany (-0.2%). Canada's current population growth is not the highest amongst industrialized countries. It is, amongst others, below the estimated rate in Australia (+1.4%).
Differential growth of provinces and territories
Population growth can vary greatly among Canada's provinces and territories (Chart 1.2). In 2011/2012, population growth was low in the Atlantic provinces and high in the Western provinces. Growth exceeded the national level (+1.1%) in Alberta (+2.5%), Saskatchewan (+2.1%), Yukon (+2.0%) and Manitoba (+1.2%). By contrast, the population declined in the Northwest Territories (-2.0%) and remained relatively stable in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
Compared with 2010/2011, population growth steeply declined in Prince Edward Island, going from 1.8% in 2010/2011 to 0.3% in 2011/2012, in the Northwest Territories, going from 0.8% in 2010/2011 to -2.0% in 2011/2012 and in Nunavut, going from 2.2% in 2010/2011 to 0.4% in 2011/2012. Conversely, growth accelerated in two provinces, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
In the last 30 years, the population of the Western provinces—the Prairie provinces and British Columbia—has grown substantially (+49.0%), while the Atlantic provinces have seen their population increase only slightly (+4.4%). By comparison, Canada's population increased by 38.9% during this period. Since 1982, the demographic weight of the Western provinces has increased by 2.1 percentage points, reaching 31.1% on July 1, 2012, compared with a decrease of 2.2 percentage points for the Atlantic provinces (6.8%). In turn, the population of Ontario grew twice as rapidly (+51.4%) as that of Quebec (+22.4%) during this period. Among the provinces, Alberta has recorded the strongest growth since 1982 with an increase of 63.5%.
Provincial differences in the intensity of the population growth in the past 30 years can be attributed to several factors: interprovincial migration, which often favours the Western provinces; often higher fertility in the Prairie provinces; and a greater influx of immigrants, especially in Ontario and British Columbia. On July 1, 2012, three-quarters of Canadians were living in three provinces: Ontario (38.7%), Quebec (23.1%) and British Columbia (13.3%).
Factors of demographic growth
At the national level, population growth is the result of two factors: natural increase and net international migration. Natural increase is the change in the size of a population during a given period owing to the difference between the number of births and deaths. Net international migration basically refers to the number of moves between Canada and abroad, accompanied by a change in usual place of residence; it consists of the following components: immigration, emigration, returning emigrants, net temporary emigration and net non-permanent residents.
International migration is gaining in importance as an engine of Canada's population growth, and since 1993 it has consistently been the main source of that growth 2 (see Chart 1.3). In 2011/2012, net international migration was responsible for two-thirds of population growth in Canada. By comparison, net international migration 3 accounted on average for 39.2% of population growth between 1982/1983 and 1992/1993. For the year ended June 30, 2012, net international migration was estimated at 267,200, more than double the figure for natural increase (+129,400).
Natural increase
According to preliminary data, natural increase for the year ended June 30, 2012 was estimated at 129,400, down from 131,100 for the previous year. In 2011/2012, natural increase resulted from the difference between the 381,600 births and the 252,200 deaths estimated for that year. The number of persons who were added by natural increase in 2011/2012 declined by approximately 1,700 compared with 2010/2011. This is due to the fact that deaths increased more rapidly than births during this period.
The rate of natural increase was 0.4% in 2011/2012, similar to the level observed since 2005/2006. The rate was still positive in all provinces and territories. However, it was weaker in the Atlantic provinces and much stronger in the territories. In Canada, Nunavut registered the strongest natural increase (+2.0%), while Nova Scotia obtained the weakest in 2011/2012 (+0.0%). That province ranked last in Canada in this regard for a fourth consecutive year. Among the provinces, Alberta had the strongest natural increase in 2011/2012 (+0.8%). Indeed, that province has held this title continuously since 1980/1981.
Births
In 2011/2012, the birth rate, which is the ratio between births and the average population during the period, was estimated at 1.1% in Canada. In the past year, these rates were higher in the territories and lower in the Atlantic provinces. The highest birth rate was observed in Nunavut (+2.5%), while among the provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan led the way (+1.4%), closely followed by Manitoba (+1.3%). Birth rates of these areas are fueled by stronger fertility rates, as illustrated by the latest total fertility rates (TFR) 4 .
Deaths
In 2011/2012, the mortality rate, namely the ratio between deaths and the average population during the period, is estimated at 0.7% in Canada. Rates are lower in the territories and higher in the Atlantic provinces. Compared with 2010/2011, mortality rates for 2011/2012 were up in all provinces, except Quebec and Saskatchewan. In Canada, the highest mortality rates were observed all Atlantic provinces (+0.9%) while the Nunavut and the Northwest Territories (+0.5%) had the lowest rates in Canada. Among the provinces, Alberta once again in 2011/2012 registered the lowest mortality rate in Canada (+0.6%), for a 31st consecutive year. This is not unrelated to the fact that Alberta has the youngest population of any Canadian province (on this subject, see the section on estimates by age and sex).
International migration
Net international migration was estimated at 267,200 for the year ended June 30, 2012, up from the previous year (+226,400). The net international migration rate reached 0.8% in 2011/2012, an increase compared with the previous year (+0.7%). In 2011/2012, the net international migration rate was above the national average in four provinces: Saskatchewan (+1.3%), Prince Edward Island (+1.1%), Manitoba (+1.1%) and Alberta (+1.0%).
Immigrants
Nearly 260,000 immigrants took up residence in Canada in the year ended June 30, 2012, a number exceeding 250,000 for a third year in a row. In 2011/2012, the immigration rate was estimated at 0.7% in Canada. Among the provinces and territories, the highest immigration rates were seen in Manitoba (+1.2%) and Saskatchewan (+1.1%).
In recent years, the regional distribution of immigration in Canada has changed. In 2011/2012, Ontario continued to be the Canadian province receiving the most immigrants. However, Ontario's attraction has tended to diminish in the last few years. On average between 1982/1983 and 2004/2005, Ontario received between 44.3% and 59.6% of all immigrants coming to Canada. In 2011/2012, that province received only 38.9% of Canada's immigrants. This was its second lowest proportion since 1971/1972, the first year covered by the current demographic accounting system. Compared with 2010/2011, proportionally fewer immigrants settled in Ontario (-3,800), British Columbia (-2,700), Prince Edward Island (-1,200) and Manitoba (-700). Lastly, three provinces in 2011/2012 received a record number of immigrants: Quebec (54,200), Alberta (34,500) and Saskatchewan (11,400).
Net non-permanent residents
The term "net non-permanent residents" represents the change in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates (in the present case, between July 1, 2011 and July 1, 2012). As with immigration, net non-permanent residents increased substantially in 2011/2012. For the year ended June 30, 2012, net non-permanent residents stood at 54,500, up strongly from 13,600 observed in 2010/2011. Net non-permanent residents were positive in 2011/2012 in all provinces. The highest rates of increase in the number of non-permanent residents were observed in Saskatchewan (+0.3%) and Alberta (+0.3%). And lastly, net non-permanent residents stood at record levels for two provinces in 2011/2012: Saskatchewan (+2,900) and Prince Edward Island (+300).
Emigration, returning emigration and net temporary emigration
Preliminary estimates indicate that in 2011/2012, 51,300 Canadians emigrated, 33,200 emigrants returned to Canada on a permanent basis and net temporary emigration stood at 29,100. Based on these three components, net emigration 5 can therefore be estimated at nearly 47,300 for the year ended June 30, 2012. The net emigration rate is above national average (0.1 %) in three provinces: Ontario (0.2%), Alberta (0.2%) and British Columbia (0.2%).
Interprovincial migration
At the provincial and territorial level, population growth results not only from natural increase and net international migration, but also from net interprovincial migration. This is the change in the size of a population during a given period as a result of population movements between Canada's provinces and territories, accompanied by a change in usual place of residence.
For the year ended June 30, 2012, net interprovincial migration was positive for only two provinces (see chart 1.4): Alberta (+28,200 or 0.7%) and Saskatchewan (+2,800 or 0.3%). Alberta mainly benefited from migratory exchanges with certain provinces, with net gains of 10,700 with Ontario and 5,100 with British Columbia. Proportionally, Northwest Territories (-3.4%), Nunavut (-1,5%) and Prince Edward Island (-0.9%) have recorded the largest interprovincial net migratory losses.
Portrait of provinces and territories
Population and growth
As noted in the national section (Differential growth of provinces), for the year ended June 30, 2012, there was considerable variation among Canada's provinces and territories with respect to population growth. This section briefly summarizes the major trends for each province and territory.
Newfoundland and Labrador
During the year 2011/2012, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador remained relatively stable according to preliminary estimates. On July 1, 2012, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador was estimated at 512,700. The gains in international migration (+1,200) were entirely offset by losses in migratory exchanges with the other provinces and territories (-1,600).
Prince Edward Island
Prince Edward Island saw its population grow by more than 400 or 0.3% during the year 2011/2012. On July 1, 2012, the population of Prince Edward Island was estimated at 146,100. The gains made by this province in international migration (+1,600) were almost completely offset by interprovincial migratory losses (-1,300).
Nova Scotia
According to preliminary estimates, the population of Nova Scotia remained relatively stable during 2011/2012. On July 1, 2012, the number of inhabitants of this province was estimated at 948,700. The province's net international migration (+3,100) was entirely offset by negative net interprovincial migration (-3,000).
New Brunswick
The population of New Brunswick was estimated at 756,000 on July 1, 2012, remaining relatively stable over the previous year. The province's net international migration (+2,200) was completely offset by negative net interprovincial migration (-2,200). It should be noted that in 2011/2012, the province's net international migration was at a record level for the period covered by the current demographic accounting system, that is, since 1971/1972.
Quebec
In 2011/2012, the population of Quebec increased by 76,800 (+1.0%). It stood at 8,054,800 on July 1, 2012. Two-thirds of the population increase in 2011/2012 for this province is attributable to net international migration (+51,700). Indeed, the province's net international migration was its highest since 1988/1989 (+53,700).
Ontario
In 2011/2012, Ontario saw its population increase by 139,600 or +1.0%, a growth rate very close to the national average (+1.1%). On July 1, 2012, Ontario's population was estimated at 13,505,900. The main factor in the increase of the province's population was net international migration, which stood at 102,100 for the last year.
Manitoba
The population of Manitoba grew by 15,300 (+1.2%) in 2011/2012. On July 1, 2012, Manitoba's population was estimated at 1,267,000. During the year, net international migration (+14,200) was the main factor driving the province's growth. It was also the highest level observed in Manitoba for the period covered by the current demographic accounting system.
Saskatchewan
In 2011/2012, Saskatchewan saw its population grow by 22,200 or 2.1%, a record increase for this province for the period covered by the current demographic accounting system. On July 1, 2012, Saskatchewan's population was estimated at 1,080,000. Net international migration (+13,700) was the main factor behind the province's population growth, combined with positive net interprovincial migration (+2,800), which was positive for a sixth consecutive year. For the year ended June 30, Saskatchewan was the only province along with Alberta to register gains in these migratory exchanges with other parts of Canada. It especially benefited from such exchanges with certain provinces, with net gains of 2,100 with Ontario and 600 with British Columbia.
Alberta
On July 1, 2012, the population of Alberta was estimated at 3,873,700. The growth of Alberta's population in 2011/2012 was estimated at 95,700. This province's growth rate in 2011/2012 (+2.5%) is more than twice as high as for Canada as a whole (+1.1%). During this period, natural increase (+29,500) was exceeded by net international migration (+38,000) as the main factor driving population growth in Alberta compared with 2010/2011. Indeed, the province's net migration in 2011/2012 set a record as the highest level attained in the period covered by the current demographic accounting system. Over the past year, this province also posted sizable gains through interprovincial migration, which reached 28,200, up sharply from 2010/2011 (+8,400). These gains were mainly from exchanges with Ontario (+10,700) and British Columbia (+5,100).
British Columbia
On July 1, 2012, the population of British Columbia was estimated at 4,622,600. In the last year, British Columbia saw its population grow by 46,000 (1.0%). This rate is equal to the national rate and the rate observed in this province in 2010/2011. Net international migration (+39,000) was the main factor behind the increase in this province's population. British Columbia also recorded migratory losses to other provinces totaling 4,600 in 2011/2012, the largest since 2001/2002 (-8,600).
Yukon
Yukon's population grew by 2.0% in 2011/2012 and was estimated at 36,100 on July 1, 2012.
Northwest Territories
The population of the Northwest Territories declined 2.0% in 2011/2012, with a loss of 900. On July 1, 2012, this territory's population was estimated at 43,300. This decrease is mainly due to losses in interprovincial migration (-1,500).
Nunavut
On July 1, 2012, the population of Nunavut was estimated at 33,700, up 0.4% in one year. The increase in Nunavut's population was mainly due to natural increase (+700).
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