This report presents population projections for Canada, the provinces and territories for the period 2005-2056. The results presented in this report are available for provinces and territories by age and sex to the year 2031 and for Canada as a whole to the year 2056.

The components method was used. For each component of population growth, one or more assumptions were made regarding how that component would evolve in the future. These assumptions, when combined, form a number of projection scenarios. In all, there are three assumptions each on fertility, mortality and immigration and four assumptions on interprovincial migration; in combination, these assumptions generate 108 scenarios on the future course of population change. To keep the document a reasonable size, the results of only six scenarios are presented in detail in this publication. These six scenarios provide a range of high, medium and low population growth projections for the various provinces and territories.

The report begins with a brief description of the projection method used, the assumptions made for each of the components, and the selection of scenarios. The next part presents an analysis of the results of these projections, first focussing on the results at the national level and then at the provincial/territorial levels, each time presenting the population growth and the age structure of these populations. This part also presents a “sensibility analysis” to discuss the impact of the components of population growth on the projections. The last part briefly discusses the quality of past projections, comparing the numbers projected for Canada to the official population estimates released since then. Appended, the reader will find detailed tables of the results of the six projection scenarios selected.

The accuracy of any projection depends on the quality of the data on the base population and confirmation of the assumptions regarding future trends. Population change is also related to various socioeconomic factors that cannot be foreseen with any precision, and their impact on population growth cannot be accurately measured. In general, the uncertainty surrounding population growth can be expected to increase over the projection period and to be greater for small populations. The assumptions were established on the basis of a careful analysis of past trends. However, there is no guarantee that the values of the components will always remain within the range suggested by the assumptions.