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Monday, December 23, 2002

Canada's international transactions in securities

October 2002

In October, foreign investors made their largest monthly investment in Canadian securities thus far in 2002, $3.8 billion, as they bought debt instruments but sold equities. At the same time, Canadian investors sold off a record amount of foreign securities, mostly foreign bonds.

Large foreign investment in Canadian bonds

Foreign investors made their largest investment in Canadian bonds so far in 2002, adding $4.3 billion to their holdings in October. Foreign investors added $6.7 billion to their holdings of bond issues of Canadian governments and their enterprises, but reduced their holdings of corporate bonds by $2.5 billion. Foreign acquisitions of Canadian bonds were largely in the secondary market for federal government issues.

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This was in contrast to the first seven months of 2002, when foreign investors favoured corporate bonds, buying $12.1 billion worth, of which $10.1 billion were for net new issues (new issues less retirements). October's investment came from European and Japanese investors; American investors were sellers for the first time in 13 months.


Related market information

In October, Canadian short-term interest rates fell a further 10 basis points but comparable US rates fell just 5 basis points, resulting in a narrowing of the gap to 115 basis points. The differential, which moved in favour of investment in Canada in March 2001, grew to 134 basis points in August 2002 before pulling back to its current level in October.

For long-term interest rates, the differential favouring investment in Canada widened for its fifth consecutive month, reaching 117 basis points in October. Prior to October, long-term rates in both countries had been falling consistently since March with American rates declining more than Canadian rates. This has resulted in the gap growing steadily in favour of investment in Canada.

Canadian stock prices managed a small 1.1% gain in October, after registering a sharp 6.5% loss in value in September. October's gain, only the third in the first 10 months of 2002, has resulted in a cumulative loss of 18.7% in Canadian stock prices (S&P/TSX composite index) so far in 2002. In comparison, American stock prices (Standard & Poor's composite 500 index) had a larger 8.6% gain in October following a much larger 11.0% loss in September. The cumulative loss of 22.8% over the first 10 months of 2002 continued to be higher than Canada's.

In October, the Canadian dollar posted its second largest monthly gain of 2002, up US1.20 cents against the American dollar to close in October at US64.21 cents. It is near the midway point of monthly closes, bottoming out at US62.42 in February and reaching a high of US65.95 cents in June.

Definitions

The data series on international security transactions cover portfolio transactions in stocks and bonds (both Canadian and foreign issues) and Canadian money market instruments (or paper).

Stocks include common and preferred equities, as well as warrants.

Debt securities include bonds and money market instruments.

Bonds have an original term to maturity of more than one year.

Money market instruments have an original term to maturity of one year or less. Government of Canada paper includes treasury bills and US-dollar Canada bills. Other money market instruments include treasury bills and other paper issued by other Canadian governments or their enterprises, bankers' acceptances, bearer demand notes of banks, commercial paper and other short-term paper.


Canadian investors sell-off record amount of foreign securities

Canadian investors sold off a near-record $2.9 billion of mainly US treasuries in October, after acquiring $1.8 billion of foreign bonds in September. So far in 2002, however, Canadian investors have added $3.3 billion worth to their holdings of foreign bonds, compared with no net investment in foreign bonds for the same period of 2001.

Canadian investment in foreign stocks has slowed since April and turned into a record $0.6 billion divestment in October, consisting entirely of overseas equities. There have been few divestments of foreign stocks by Canadian investors over the past decade.

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Foreign investors buy short-term paper but again sell equities

Foreign investors returned to the Canadian money market with a small $0.4 billion investment in October, after having reduced their holdings by $2.0 billion over August and September.

Although the cumulative investment by foreign investors in the first ten months of 2002 has been negligible, the same period of 2001 saw a near $8 billion reduction in foreign holdings of Canadian money market instruments. An investment of $0.8 billion made by European investors in October was partly offset by a divestment by American investors.

In October, Canadian short-term rates fell a further 10 basis points and comparable US rates fell just 5 basis points, resulting in a narrowing of the gap to 115 basis points, continuing to favour investment in Canada.

Foreign investors reduced their holdings of Canadian stocks by $0.9 billion in October, similar to September. October's reduction continued to be focussed on secondary market shares with very little activity occurring in the areas of new share offerings or mergers and acquisitions. The selling continued to come from American investors. Canadian stock prices (S&P/TSX composite index) managed a small 1.1% gain in October, after registering a sharp 6.5% loss in value in September. October's gain was only the third in the first ten months of 2002.

Available on CANSIM: tables 376-0018 to 376-0029 and 376-0042.

Information on methods and data quality available in the Integrated Meta Data Base: survey numbers, including related surveys, 1532, 1534, 1535 and 1537.

The October 2002 issue of Canada's international transactions in securities (67-002-XIE, $14/$132) will be available soon.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Donald Granger (613-951-1864), Balance of Payments Division.

Canada's international transactions in securities
  July 2002 August 2002 September 2002 October 2002 January to October 2001 January to October 2002
$ millions
Foreign investment in Canadian securities -3,541 1,210 -1,605 3,780 22,758 9,132
Bonds (net) -304 2,219 100 4,279 28,333 13,201
  Outstanding
1,661 3,474 106 4,463 9,346 12,146
  New issues
4,360 978 4,822 2,542 63,263 37,490
  Retirements
-6,232 -2,721 -5,025 -3,157 -45,741 -37,852
  Change in interest payable1
-93 488 197 431 1,466 1,417
Money market paper (net) 223 -1,261 -753 436 -7,940 294
  Government of Canada
383 -337 -176 22 -5,259 611
  Other
-161 -924 -576 414 -2,681 -318
Stocks (net) -3,460 253 -952 -935 2,365 -4,363
  Outstanding
-3,825 -1,406 -1,399 -997 2,007 -9,220
  Other transactions
366 1,659 447 62 359 4,857
Canadian investment in foreign securities -658 -223 -2,228 3,504 -30,049 -17,304
  Bonds (net)
-520 792 -1,752 2,855 241 -3,349
  Stocks (net)
-139 -1,014 -476 649 -30,290 -13,955
1Interest accrued less interest paid.
Note:A minus sign (-) indicates an outflow of money from Canada, that is, a withdrawal of foreign investment from Canada or an increase in Canadian investment abroad.



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Date Modified: 2002-12-23 Important Notices