Estimate of production of principal field crops

Prairie farmers anticipate increased production of oilseeds (canola and flaxseed) and slightly reduced production of spring wheat, barley and dry peas in 2005.

Data from the annual July Farm Survey of 17,600 farmers revealed a mixed picture for two major producing regions. In Quebec and Ontario, generally hot and dry weather with spotty rainfall, especially in southern Ontario, served to stunt crops and reduce farmers' production expectations for corn and soybeans.

In the West, soil moisture levels during the survey period were generally good, with the exception of southern Manitoba, where severe flooding prohibited completion of seeding in some areas and drowned out entire fields of young plants in others. In Saskatchewan and Alberta, farmers reported strong and in some cases record production estimates. Prairie farmers nervously await the harvest, hoping that conditions will remain favourable until then.

Canola production improves

Prairie farmers reported that canola production could rise 7.8% to 8.2 million tonnes, the result of a record yield and an increase in harvested area from 2004.

Saskatchewan farmers estimate a potential production increase of 1.1 million tonnes to a record 4.0 million tonnes in 2005. Alberta farmers expect a more modest production increase of 127,000 tonnes to 3.1 million tonnes. These increases would primarily be the result of a greater area devoted to canola in 2005, and in the case of Saskatchewan, a record yield. On the other hand, adverse conditions in Manitoba should result in a 36.0% production decline to 1.1 million tonnes. Major reductions in both area and yield were reported. The 10-year average production in Manitoba is 1.5 million tonnes.

Flaxseed production could double

In the Prairies, flaxseed production should jump from 516,900 tonnes in 2004 to 1.0 million tonnes in 2005. In spite of the increase, production is still well short of the record 1.2 million tonnes set in 1970. Expected gains in harvested area and yield combined to produce the increase. Producers in all three Prairie provinces expected increases in flaxseed production.

The increase in Saskatchewan was fueled by a strong rise in yield and a record harvested area of 1.6 million acres, which combined to produce a potential record production of 835,700 tonnes. The previous record was 711,200 tonnes set in 1999. Saskatchewan accounts for 80.0% of the flaxseed grown.

Spring wheat production down slightly

Total spring wheat production in the Prairies is expected to fall 3.7% to 17.4 million tonnes. The 10-year average is 17.7 million tonnes. The reported average yield was 37.3 bushels per acre, down 2.6% from 2004.

Saskatchewan and Alberta farmers estimated small increases in production this year, while farmers in Manitoba expected production to fall 33.1% to 2.2 million tonnes as a result of adverse weather conditions. The 10-year average in Manitoba is 3.4 million tonnes.

Durum production nudges up

Durum wheat production is expected to increase 2.4% from a year earlier to 5.1 million tonnes, the result of an increase in harvested area. The 10-year average is 4.6 million tonnes.

Farmers in all three Prairie provinces expect to see production increases this year. Over three-quarters of Canadian durum is grown in Saskatchewan.

Barley, oat production dips slightly

Prairie barley production should fall 5.8% to 11.5 million tonnes. The 10-year average is 11.4 million tonnes.

Manitoba and Alberta reported decreases of 42.0% and 9.9% respectively, while Saskatchewan bucked the trend with an estimated 8.9% increase in barley production.

Oat production in the Prairie provinces is expected to slip 0.7% to 3.2 million tonnes. The 10-year average is 3.1 million tonnes.

Provincially, farmers in Manitoba reported a 34.6% drop in production to 590,700 tonnes, the lowest production estimate since 1993. On the other hand, farmers in Saskatchewan and Alberta expected increases of 15.2% and 8.3% respectively.

Field pea area down overall but a record high in Saskatchewan

Field pea production in the Prairies could drop slightly this year, down 111,200 tonnes to 3.2 million tonnes, as a result of lower yield.

Field pea production has grown rapidly in the last two years. The recent five-year average production is only 2.3 million tonnes.

A review at the provincial level tells a diverging story. Manitoba pea production may drop by 51.1% to 78 300 tonnes. This is the lowest production estimate since 1990. Production in Saskatchewan reached a new record of 2.5 million tonnes, breaking the record set in 2004. The 2005 production estimate is up 1.5% from 2004. Harvested area was a record 2.7 million acres, up 160,000 from the 2004 record area. Alberta production could fall 9.5%, the result of a decrease in estimated harvested area.

Ontario, Quebec farmers should produce less grain corn and soybeans

Farmers in Ontario and Quebec reported production estimates lower than 2004 for their grain corn and soybeans, the result of lower estimated yields and harvested areas.

Quebec farmers estimate corn production to fall 5.8% to 3.3 million tonnes, as a result of smaller harvested area and lower estimated yield. The 10-year average production estimate is 2.7 million tonnes.

Soybean production in Quebec may also decline by 2.9% from 2004 to 505,000 tonnes, the result of a lower estimated harvested area. The 10-year average production value is 359,200 tonnes.

In Ontario, production estimates for corn are down 9.5% to 4.8 million tonnes, the result of smaller harvested area and lower yield. The 10-year average is 5.3 million tonnes.

Soybean production may drop 3.3% from the 2004 record to 2.4 million tonnes in 2005, the result of a decline in yield. Soybean production has fluctuated significantly over the decade, ranging from 1.3 million tonnes in 2001 to 2.5 million tonnes in 2004.

Available on CANSIM: tables 001-0004, 001-0010, 001-0017 to 001-0020.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3401.

The publication Field Crop Reporting Series, Vol. 84, no. 5 (22-002-XIB, $12/$71; 22-002-XPB, $17/$95) is now available. See How to order our products.

For further information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact David Burroughs (613-951-5138; dave.burroughs@statcan.gc.ca), Dave Roeske (613-951-0572; dave.roeske@statcan.gc.ca), or Heather Smith (613-951-0730; heather.smith@statcan.gc.ca), Agriculture Division.