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Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Leading indicators

April 2006 Previous release

The composite leading indicator continued to rise, up 0.5% in April after a 0.6% gain in March. Consumer spending took the lead in growth, as the burst of demand in the stock and housing markets early in the year moderated in the spring.

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Stronger sales of durable goods offset a sharp downturn in the housing component. Both housing starts and house sales returned to more normal levels, after exceptional gains during the period of mild weather at the start of the year. Instead, consumers shifted their spending to durable goods, which then posted their largest gain in six months. Demand was particularly strong for electronics and furniture and appliances.

The financial sector remained buoyant. Stock market prices moderated slightly, as mining overtook energy for the lead in driving commodity prices higher. Increased business spending continued to boost the overall increase in the services employment component.

The manufacturing industry continued to struggle. Lower shipments pulled down the trend of the ratio of shipments to inventories, as declines for exports outweighed higher domestic investment demand. The inflow of new orders was also slow. The average workweek levelled off after three straight declines, and the loss of manufacturing jobs has moderated so far this year.

Much of the weakness in export demand for manufactured goods appears rooted in the rising dollar, as the US economy continues to perform well. The US leading indicator rose 0.2% in April, as a pickup in industrial activity and continued gains in consumer spending outweighed the dampening effect of higher gasoline prices and slowing housing demand.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

For more information on the economy, consult the May 2006 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 19, no. 5 (11-010-XIB, free). To obtain a copy, go to the Our products and services page of our website. A paper version is also available (11-010-XPB, $25/$243).

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Leading indicators
  November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 Last month of data available
              % change
Composite leading indicator (1992=100) 209.2 210.2 211.1 211.8 213.1 214.1 0.5
Housing index (1992=100)1 144.3 143.0 145.7 146.5 149.6 148.1 -1.0
Business and personal services employment ('000) 2,672 2,677 2,682 2,683 2,685 2,687 0.1
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 10,662 10,832 11,087 11,223 11,568 11,844 2.4
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 137,875 139,740 141,287 142,883 144,758 146,609 1.3
US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 125.6 125.8 126.1 126.5 127.0 127.3 0.2
Manufacturing              
Average workweek (hours) 38.5 38.5 38.3 38.1 38.0 38.0 0.0
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 26,140 26,418 26,574 26,700 26,512 26,464 -0.2
Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 1.82 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.86 -0.015
Retail trade              
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 2,276 2,300 2,316 2,338 2,381 2,416 1.5
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 8,135 8,138 8,131 8,073 8,072 8,171 1.2
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator 210.0 211.9 213.5 214.4 215.5 215.1 -0.2
1.Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service).
2.Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items.
3.The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding.
4.The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month.
5.Difference from previous month.


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Date Modified: 2006-05-24 Important Notices