Estimate of production of principal field crops

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Prairie farmers report that crop production will decline from last year's record levels, the result of persistent dry conditions. In the East, generally favourable conditions could result in crop production well above the 10-year average.

Data from the annual July Farm Survey of 17,600 farmers, conducted from July 28th to August 6th, indicated that there is a concern about the effects of recent drought-like growing conditions in the Prairie provinces.

After an optimistic spring that allowed timely seeding with average rainfall in most areas, continuous hot and dry weather in July stressed crops and accelerated development. Farmers have since pared back high yield expectations to a more normal range.

In north-east Saskatchewan, many farmers were unable to complete seeding because of too much rain during planting that flooded their fields for weeks. Production estimates in Manitoba are anticipated to rebound strongly in 2006 after the excessive wet conditions that devastated crops in 2005.

In Quebec and Ontario, continuous high temperatures have accelerated crop maturity and, despite too much rain in some areas, producers expected there will be above-average yields this year for most major crops.

Prairie canola production expected to fall

Prairie farmers reported that they expect to harvest 7.9 million tonnes of canola, down 1.6 million tonnes from the 9.5 million tonnes in 2005. Production would remain well above the 10-year average of 6.8 million tonnes. The decline would be due to a drop in yield from an estimated 32.6 bushels per acre to 27.2 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to remain the same.

Farmers in Saskatchewan and Alberta reported similar expectations with respect to this year's crop. Saskatchewan production could fall 22.9% to 3.6 million tonnes, while Alberta farmers expect a 22.5% decline to 2.8 million tonnes. In Manitoba, increases in harvested area and yield could propel anticipated production to 1.5 million tonnes, on par with the recent 10-year average.

Flaxseed production declines

On the Prairies, flaxseed production could fall 9.6% to 977,200 tonnes. This is the result of an anticipated drop in yield from 21.5 acres per bushel in 2005 to 18.7 bushels per acre in 2006, a return to the 10-year average.

Producers in Saskatchewan and Alberta reported lower flaxseed production, while Manitoba farmers reported a slight increase.

Spring wheat production up slightly

Prairie farmers expect to harvest 18.6 million tonnes of spring wheat, up just 1.2% from 18.3 million tonnes in 2005. The 10-year average is 17.6 million tonnes. Harvested area could rise by 2.6 million acres but yield is anticipated to fall from 39.7 bushels per acre to 34.8 bushels per acre.

The spring wheat harvest in Alberta could fall 7.0% to 6.8 million tonnes. Saskatchewan farmers reported an unchanged estimated production of 8.7 million tonnes, the result of a lower yield but similar increase in harvested area. Manitoba farmers reported a 30.1% increase in production to 3.0 million tonnes, owing to a rebound in yield and harvested area from 2005.

Durum production tumbles

Durum wheat production in the Prairies is expected to fall 42.2% to 3.4 million tonnes, off 2.5 million tonnes from 2005. The 10-year average production is 4.7 million tonnes. The decline is the result of an average drop of 8.5 bushels per acre and 1.5 million fewer harvested acres.

Production in both Saskatchewan and Alberta should drop. In Saskatchewan, where over three-quarters of Canadian durum is grown, production could decline 2.1 million tonnes to an estimated 2.8 million tonnes.

Feed grain production mixed

Prairie barley production should fall 18.2% to 9.5 million tonnes, the result of declines in both yield and harvested area. The 10-year average production is 11.4 million tonnes.

Saskatchewan output is likely to drop 34.8% to 3.5 million tonnes and Alberta production is expected to fall by 12.5% to 4.9 million tonnes. Manitoba production was reported to have surged 65.2% to 1.1 million tonnes.

Oat production on the Prairies could rise 10.3% to 3.3 million tonnes, and come in line with the 10-year average of 3.1 million tonnes.

Provincially, oat production could decline by 1.5% in Saskatchewan and by 19.9% in Alberta, but rebound 114.2% to 943,800 tonnes in Manitoba.

Field pea production down on the Prairies

Field pea production should decline, the result of a drop in yield. Prairie production should decline to 2.8 million tonnes, off from 3.1 million tonnes in 2005. The 10-year average is 2.2 million tonnes.

Provincially, Manitoba production should edge up 1.6% to 63,500 tonnes. In Alberta, farmers reported a 3.1% increase, the result of more harvested area. In Saskatchewan, production could be down 13.8%, the result of a 5.8 bushel per acre drop in yield. However, potential harvested acres rose 100,000 acres to a record 2.7 million acres. Dry pea harvested area has been rising in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Ontario, Quebec farmers should produce less grain corn and soybeans

Farmers in Ontario and Quebec reported lower production, mainly the result of reduced yield estimates.

Quebec farmers estimate corn production to fall 14.5% to 3.0 million tonnes, an estimate not seen since 2001. This reduction would be the result of a smaller harvested area and a lower estimated yield. The 10-year average production is 2.9 million tonnes.

Soybean production in Quebec may also decline 1.0% from 2005 to an estimated 500,000 tonnes, the result of a drop of 1.3 bushels per acre in yield. The 10-year average production value is 384,700 tonnes.

In Ontario, production estimates for corn were down 1.8% to 5.7 million tonnes, the result of a 6.9 bushel per acre decline in yield. Production would remain well above the 10-year average of 5.4 million tonnes.

Soybean production may drop 6.8% from 2005 to an estimated 2.4 million tonnes, a value remaining well above the 10-year average of 2.1 million tonnes. This reduction would be the result of a decline of 165,000 acres of harvested area.

Ontario winter wheat a record

Winter wheat production in Ontario is expected to shatter all records in 2006. Production was estimated at 2.5 million tonnes, eclipsing the previous record of 2.1 million tonnes set in 2003. Harvested area and yield are both in record high territory. At the time of the survey, the majority of the harvest was complete.

Available on CANSIM: tables 001-0004, 001-0010, 001-0017 to 001-0020.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3401.

The publication Field Crop Reporting Series, Vol. 85, no. 5 (22-002-XIB, free) is now available from the Publications module of our website. A paper version (22-002-XPB, $17/$95) is also now available.

For further information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact David Burroughs (613-951-5138; dave.burroughs@statcan.gc.ca), or Dave Roeske (613-951-0572; dave.roeske@statcan.gc.ca), Agriculture Division.