Estimates of production of principal field crops

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Prairie farmers reported that the production of major crops, with the exception of spring wheat and flaxseed, should improve from 2006 estimates, as a result of increases in harvested area. In spite of the dry conditions in the East, grain corn production should reach a record in both Ontario and Quebec.

Data from the annual July farm survey, a preliminary survey of Canadian field crop production of 17,300 farmers conducted from July 27 to August 5, indicated that farmers are concerned about the effects of recent drought-like growing conditions in the Prairie Provinces.

Planting conditions varied in the Prairie Provinces with generally abundant to excessive levels of soil moisture this spring. As a result, crops in some areas were planted near the end of the seeding window for the 2007 growing season.

However, hot and dry conditions in July changed the production outlook with crop yields declining, due to reduced topsoil moisture conditions. The situation was most evident in south central and south western Saskatchewan, and in southern Alberta. At the time of this report, it is believed that rain could still help crops finish in many areas of the Prairie Provinces, where the production of all feed grains, canola and durum wheat is expected to rise from 2006. On the other hand, output of wheat excluding durum and flaxseed could fall. In some southern areas of Saskatchewan, the harvest has begun.

In Quebec and Ontario, dry conditions have been taking a toll on field crops. In spite of this, field corn production is still estimated to be a record in both provinces, the result of record harvested areas.

Wheat excluding durum production could fall

Prairie farmers reported that they expect to harvest 15.1 million tonnes of wheat excluding durum, a decline of 20.6% or 3.9 million tonnes from 2006. The five-year average production is 16.3 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to fall 16.6%, and yield could drop 1.8 bushels per acre to 35.6 bushels per acre.

Production is expected to fall in all three Prairie Provinces, with declines ranging from 23.4% in Saskatchewan to 9.3% in Manitoba.

Durum wheat production nudges up

In the Prairies, durum production is expected to rise 6.1% to 3.5 million tonnes, an increase of 202,700 tonnes from 2006, the result of a strong increase in harvest area to 4.7 million acres. The five-year average production estimate is 4.4 million tonnes.

Provincially, durum production rose 9.0% in Saskatchewan to an estimated 2.9 million tonnes, while production in Alberta may fall 6.0% to 617,800 tonnes. The vast majority of Canadian durum wheat is grown in Saskatchewan.

Canola and flaxseed production move in opposite directions

Prairie canola production should rise this year, while flaxseed production is expected to fall.

Prairie canola production could rise 190,300 tonnes to an estimated 9.2 million tonnes, the result of an expected record harvest area of 14.2 million acres. The previous record was 14.1 million acres reported in 1994.

Manitoba production could be a record 2.0 million tonnes, exceeding last year's record of 1.8 million tonnes. A record harvested area of 2.8 million acres is responsible for the jump. Saskatchewan canola production should rise 13.6% to 4.2 million tonnes, the result of an increase in harvested area to a record 7.0 million acres. The previous record of 6.6 million acres was set in 1999. On the other hand, Alberta farmers reported a possible reduction in canola production of 12.7% to 3.0 million tonnes. This is the result of a drop in yield to 30.0 bushels per acre, an estimate below the five-year average of 31.4 bushels per acre.

In spite of the hot and dry conditions experienced in the Prairies, some experts point out that new canola seed varieties are more heat tolerant, reducing yield losses in adverse conditions.

Feed grain production should rise across the Prairies

The production of barley, oats and field peas should all rise in 2007 in the Prairie Provinces, the result of strong increases in harvested area.

Prairie barley production should rise to above-average levels this year, the result of an increased estimated harvest area and an average cut for silage. Production is estimated at 11.1 million tonnes, up 2.3 million tonnes from 2006, well above the five-year average of 9.7 million tonnes. Yields will continue to be above average at 54.6 bushels per acre. Farmers in all three Prairie Provinces reported that they expect production to increase in 2007.

Oat production in the Prairie Provinces should rise 34.7% to 4.6 million tonnes, an increase of 1.2 million tonnes from 2006. A rise in yield and a 25.0% increase in harvest area were responsible for the rise. The five-year production average is 2.9 million tonnes. Production increases should occur in all three Prairie Provinces, with gains ranging from 49.8% in Saskatchewan to 8.1% in Alberta.

Dry field pea production should rise 17.3% to 3.0 million tonnes, up 435,600 tonnes. A similar increase in harvested area to a record 3.6 million acres was responsible for the gain. The previous record was 3.1 million tonnes set in 2004.

Provincially, the results were mixed. Saskatchewan farmers reported a potential 25.0% increase in production to 2.3 million tonnes, the result of a record harvest area of 2.9 million acres. The previous record was 2.5 million acres set in 2005. On the other hand, farmers in Manitoba reported a 12.1% decrease in production to 91,000 tonnes, and Alberta farmers reported a potential 3.1% decline to 535,300 tonnes. These declines were due to anticipated decreases in yield in 2007.

Ontario, Quebec farmers should produce record grain corn, fewer soybeans

Farmers in Ontario and Quebec expect to produce a record amount of corn for grain in 2007, in spite of the excessive dryness being experienced in many areas.

Quebec farmers may produce a record 3.6 million tonnes of corn for grain this year, an increase of 33.3% or 900,000 tonnes. The previous record was 3.5 million tonnes set in 2003. A rise in expected yield of 13.3 bushels per acre and a record harvested area of 1.1 million acres were responsible.

In Ontario, corn-for-grain production could increase to a record 6.4 million tonnes, a gain of 9.1% or 533,400 tonnes. The previous record was 6.0 million tonnes set in 1998. This rise was the result of a 35.2% increase in harvested area.

Soybean production is expected to fall in both Quebec and Ontario.

In Quebec, production is forecast to drop 9.3% to 485,000 tonnes, the result of a comparable percentage drop in harvested area. The five-year average for Quebec soybean production is 453,000.

Ontario farmers expect production to drop 18.4% to 2.2 million tonnes, the result of a 9.8 bushel per acre drop in yield. The five-year average production estimate is 2.3 million tonnes.

Available on CANSIM: tables 001-0004, 001-0010, 001-0017 to 001-0020 and 001-0040 to 001-0043.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3401.

The publication Field Crop Reporting Series: "July 31 Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops", 2007, Vol. 86, no. 5 (22-002-XIE, free) is now available from the Publication module of our website.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact David Burroughs (613-951-5138; dave.burroughs@statcan.gc.ca), or Dave Roeske (613-951-0572; dave.roeske@statcan.gc.ca), Agriculture Division.