Greenhouse gas emissions

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Context
Status and trends
Influencing factors
What’s next?

Context

Naturally occurring GHGs, mainly carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and water vapour, help regulate the earth’s climate by trapping heat in the atmosphere and reflecting it back to the surface. Over the past 200 years, however, human activities such as burning fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas) and deforestation have led to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. Scientists predict that this trend will continue.

The consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC 2007a), as reflected in the Fourth Assessment Report is that incremental GHG emissions caused by human activity are having a discernible impact on the climate by upsetting the delicate balance of GHGs in the atmosphere. The result is the continued warming of the atmosphere.

Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are now about 35% greater than in pre-industrial times, and the global average temperature has increased by 0.55° C from the 1970s to the present. In fact, an increasing rate of warming has taken place over the past 25 years, and 11 of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the past 12 years (1995 to 2006) (IPCC 2007b)

Warming of this speed and magnitude is significantly altering the earth’s climate. These changes are expected to cause severe storm patterns, more heat waves, changes in precipitation and wind patterns, a rise in sea level and regional droughts and flooding. A general warming trend could also affect forest distribution around the world and the length of the growing season for crops. Although an extended growing season might yield some economic benefits in northern countries like Canada, indigenous species would have little time to adapt to a warmer climate and would likely have to cope with more extreme events, such as forest fires and increased stress from invasive species and diseases.

Climate change impacts will be particularly pronounced in Canada’s North, and some changes are already being observed. For example, the permafrost is melting, with implications for infrastructures such as buildings and highways (IPCC 2007c). Melting of the permafrost may also have broader consequences for the climate system because of the potentially higher releases of GHG emissions (IPCC 2007c). The size of sea ice cover can be expected to decline, which will affect transportation, wildlife distributions and traditional hunting practices in the North. Loss of sea ice will also amplify the warming effect, because seawater reflects less solar radiation than ice. On a national basis, agriculture, forestry, tourism and recreation could be affected, as could supporting industries and towns (IPCC 2007a).

The rate of climate change projected by the Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007a) can be expected to affect humans through increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts, increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases, and changes in the geographic distribution of infectious diseases. This will place additional stresses on health and social support systems if significant adaptation measures are not put in place.

The GHG emissions indicator focuses on total national emissions of the six major GHGs (Box 3).

Status and trends

National status and trends
Regional status and trends

National status and trends

Canada’s GHG emissions were estimated at 747 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2005, up 25% from 1990 when they were estimated to be 596 Mt. To put this into perspective, a typical mid-sized car driven 20 000 kilometres produces about five tonnes of carbon dioxide (Environment Canada 2007a.) The trend in estimated GHG emissions from 1990 to 2005 and the target to which Canada committed in December 2002 when it ratified the Kyoto Protocol—6% below the 1990 baseline by the period 2008 to 2012—are shown in Figure 5. In 2005, Canada’s emissions were 33% above the Kyoto target.

Emissions in 2005 increased 0.3% from 2003 but did not increase from 2004. The growth in emissions has been slowed, due primarily to a significant reduction in emissions from electricity production (reduced coal and increased hydro and nuclear generation), coupled with reduced demand for heating fuels due to warm winters and a reduced rate of increase in fossil fuel production.

In terms of individual GHGs, 78% of the 2005 emissions were attributed to carbon dioxide, 15% to methane and 6% to nitrous oxide. Sulphur hexafluoride, PFCs and HFCs accounted for the remaining 1%. The individual contributions of each GHG to total emissions were about the same as in 1990.

The 25% increase in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2005 outpaced increases in population, which totalled 17%, and approximately equalled the increase in energy use, which was 23%.

Although Canadians make up only about 0.5% of the world population, Canada’s share of global GHG emissions is approximately 2%. Emissions per capita in 2005 were approximately 23 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per person, an increase of nearly 10% over 1990 levels (Figure 6). Alberta had the highest per capita emissions at 72 tonnes of GHGs per person per year, while Quebec had the lowest at 12 tonnes per capita per year.

"GHG emissions intensity" is the ratio of emissions (as expressed in CO₂ equivalent) to economic activity as measured by the real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP). By this measure, GHG intensity decreased by 17.8% between 1990 and 2005, an average of 1.2% per year, which means more economic activity took place for each tonne of GHGs emitted in 2005 than in 1990 (Figure 7). However, Canada’s GHG intensity remains high compared with that of most other countries. In fact, it is the highest among G7 countries (Environment Canada 2006a).

To date, emissions have been categorized according to the sector that produced them. However, it is also possible to categorize emissions based on their final user by looking at who creates the demand for GHG emissions. For example, the emissions associated with the production of an automobile would be credited to the final purchaser of this vehicle. Figure 8 illustrates the breakdown of industrial GHG emissions by final demand category.¹ From a demand perspective, almost half of Canadian industrial GHG emissions in 2002 could be attributed to satisfying exports (46%). Household/personal expenditure was the next largest category at 37%. These two categories have switched positions in terms of priority since 1990, when personal expenditure was the largest source of emissions from a demand perspective at 41% and exports were second at 36%.

Regional status and trends

Canada’s GHG emissions vary considerably from region to region. In 2005, Alberta and Ontario reported the highest emissions, accounting for 32% (233 Mt) and 27% (201 Mt) of national emissions, respectively. Between 1990 and 2005, total emissions rose in all provinces and territories except for the Yukon, where they dropped slightly (Figure 9).

The geographic distribution of emissions is linked to the location of natural resources, population and heavy industry, which tend to be concentrated in particular geographic areas. Because of this, as well as varying levels of dependence on fossil fuels for energy production, certain regions or provinces in Canada tend to produce more GHG emissions.

Influencing factors

Energy production and consumption
Non-energy-related sources

There are a number of significant factors and circumstances that can influence national GHG emissions, including geography, climate, demography and the contribution of various sectors of Canada’s economy.² Figure 10 shows the contribution of various sectors to national GHG emissions.

Energy production and consumption

The production and consumption of energy includes activities such as transportation, electricity generation, fossil fuel production and consumption, mining and manufacturing, and residential consumption. Overall, energy production and consumption contributed about 82% (or 609 Mt CO₂ eq) of Canada’s total GHG emissions in 2005. From 1990 to 2005, these emissions rose by 29%, accounting for 90% of the growth in Canada’s total GHG emissions.

Consistent with the finding that almost half of Canadian industrial GHG emissions in 2002 were related to satisfying export demand, total emissions associated with energy exports in 2005 were 73 Mt, representing a 162% increase over the 1990 level of 28 Mt. Moreover, 40% of Canada’s exports are energy-intensive, resource-based commodities,³ a fact that also influences overall emissions.

The three largest energy-related sources of GHG emissions are the oil and gas industries, transportation, and electricity and heat generation.

Oil, gas and coal industries

GHG emissions from the oil, gas and coal industries accounted for 18% of total emissions in 2005, increasing by 48% from 1990 to 2005. This includes emissions related to the production and processing of oil, natural gas and coal, petroleum refining, transportation by pipelines and related fugitive emissions.⁴

Transportation

Emissions from transportation accounted for 198 Mt or 26% of total national GHG emissions in 2005, rising by about 33% from 1990 to 2005. Of particular note was an increase of over 111% in the emissions from light-duty gasoline trucks, reflecting the growing popularity of sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks. These vehicles, which emit, on average, 40% more GHG emissions per kilometre than gasoline automobiles, increased emissions by 23.2 Mt between 1990 and 2005.

Emissions from heavy‑duty diesel vehicles also increased over the period by approximately 84%, which is indicative of greater heavy-truck transport. This increase in the use of heavy-duty diesel vehicles led to an increase of 17.8 Mt between 1990 and 2005.

Reductions in GHG emissions attributed to gasoline cars, as well as propane and natural gas cars offset a small portion of the increases described above, representing a reduction of 6 Mt and 1.5 Mt, respectively, from 1990 to 2005.

Electricity and heat production

Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity and heat production accounted for 129 Mt or 17% of total national GHG emissions in 2005, rising by almost 37% between 1990 and 2005. The increase was driven by a rising demand for electricity (electricity production increased by 29% between 1990 and 2005) and by an increase in the use of fossil fuels, such as coal for electricity generation relative to other non-emitting sources, including nuclear and hydro.

Non-energy-related sources

There are three main non-energy sources of GHG emissions in Canada: industrial processes, agriculture and waste.

The emissions from industrial processes include, for example, carbon dioxide from limestone calcination in cement production and carbon dioxide from the manufacture of chemicals. The overall emissions from this sector slightly decreased between 1990 and 2005 and accounted for 7% (53.3 Mt) of the 2005 total.

However, the individual sources within this sector showed different trends. Some categories within this sector showed significant increases. For example, the substitution of HFCs for ozone-depleting substances in refrigeration and air conditioning systems, caused GHG emissions associated with this increased use of HFCs to rise by almost 235% between 1995 and 2005. There were also some significant reductions in other sources. For example, emissions of N₂O from Canada’s only adipic-acid manufacturing plant decreased by 8 Mt (75%) between 1990 and 2005 due to the installation of N₂O abatement technology. Process emissions from the aluminium industry decreased by 1.4 Mt (15%) from 1990 to 2005 due to improved PFC-emission control technologies, despite increases in the production of aluminium during same period.

The agricultural sector also accounted for 8% of the 2005 emissions total; however, emissions from this sector increased by 24% from 1990 levels, mainly as a result of expansion in the beef cattle, swine and poultry industries, along with increased applications of fertilizers in the Prairies.

The waste sector, representing 4% (28 Mt) of the 2005 total, increased its emissions by 21% from 1990 to 2005, surpassing the 17% growth in population. This appears to be largely due to growing amounts of landfilled waste. This increase would have been larger if landfill gas recovery projects, composting and recycling programs had not been implemented in Canada.

What’s next?

Environment Canada is continuously planning and implementing refinements to the national GHG inventory that will improve the accuracy of emission estimates and the quality of the indicator reported here. These refinements take into account the results of annual quality assurance and quality control procedures and reviews and verifications of the inventory, including an annual external examination by an international expert review team.

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Notes

1. These are the emissions associated with the production activity required to meet final demand. They do not represent the emissions associated with the final consumption of commodities once they have been purchased. A description of the data sources and methods associated with Figure 8 is provided in Appendix 2 (Box A.1).
2. A detailed discussion of national circumstances influencing greenhouse gas emissions can be found in Canada’s Fourth National Report on Climate Change: Actions to Meet Commitments Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Environment Canada 2006a), Chapter 2.
3. Energy-intensive commodities include items such as alumina and aluminium, copper, gypsum, iron ore, nickel, wood pulp, news print and potash fertilizer.
4. Fugitive emissions are intentional or unintentional releases of gases from industrial activities. In particular, they may arise from the production, processing, transmission, storage and use of fuels. They include emissions from combustion only when the combustion does not support a primary activity (e.g., flaring of natural gases at oil and gas production facilities).