Appendix Table A4
Population growth model: macro-regions, 1981 to 2006
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| Dependent: Logarithm of ratio of 2006 population divided by 1981 population | Atlantic | Quebec | Ontario | Manitoba / Saskatchewan | Alberta / British Columbia | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | t-stat | β | t-stat | β | t-stat | β | t-stat | β | t-stat | |
| Intercept | -3.5061 | -2.970 | -1.470 | -1.480 | -0.123 | -0.080 | -3.607 | -1.380 | 4.697 | 1.060 |
| Industry restructuring factors | ||||||||||
| Presence of agriculture (dummy) | 0.031 | 1.120 | -0.012 | -0.350 | -0.010 | -0.180 | -0.064 | -0.340 | 0.1771 | 2.030 |
| Community agriculture (ln) | 0.0261 | 2.160 | -0.0321 | -2.920 | 0.009 | 0.540 | -0.0541 | -2.020 | 0.022 | 0.830 |
| Regional agriculture (ln) | -0.020 | -0.980 | -0.1851 | -7.090 | -0.082 | -1.590 | -0.029 | -0.140 | -0.023 | -0.680 |
| Presence of other primary sector (dummy) | 0.1151 | 2.890 | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.050 | -0.083 | -0.590 |
| Community other primary sector (ln) | -0.0551 | -3.410 | -0.0361 | -3.270 | -0.023 | -1.470 | -0.041 | -2.110 | -0.0991 | -2.780 |
| Regional other primary sector (ln) | 0.0861 | 2.100 | -0.007 | -0.420 | -0.008 | -0.340 | -0.009 | -0.440 | 0.064 | 0.890 |
| Presence of distributive services (dummy) | -0.2511 | -2.390 | -0.1811 | -1.790 | -0.5441 | -1.790 | -0.158 | -0.970 | -2.8931 | -6.080 |
| Community distributive services (ln) | 0.1011 | 2.900 | 0.0691 | 2.640 | 0.0821 | 1.660 | 0.021 | 0.520 | 0.100 | 0.980 |
| Regional distributive services (ln) | 0.042 | 0.440 | -0.2191 | -2.650 | 0.063 | 0.370 | -0.4971 | -2.370 | -0.384 | -1.220 |
| Presence of producer services (dummy) | -0.041 | -1.170 | 0.041 | 1.010 | -0.2961 | -2.970 | -0.1011 | -2.090 | ... | ... |
| Community producer services (ln) | 0.018 | 0.900 | -0.003 | -0.140 | 0.1521 | 3.240 | 0.024 | 0.850 | 0.007 | 0.110 |
| Regional producer services (ln) | -0.0651 | -1.810 | 0.0831 | 2.270 | -0.031 | -0.360 | 0.1511 | 2.120 | 0.4301 | 1.970 |
| Agglomeration factors | ||||||||||
| Local population density (ln) | -0.0231 | -2.250 | -0.0661 | -5.30 | -0.061 | -4.010 | -0.013 | -0.710 | -0.0401 | -1.980 |
| Regional population density (ln) | 0.1191 | 5.170 | -0.004 | -0.120 | -0.003 | -0.110 | 0.0751 | 3.120 | -0.026 | -0.920 |
| Size of nearest agglomeration (ln) | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.003 | 0.380 | 0.013 | 1.110 | 0.0291 | 2.050 | 0.030 | 1.350 |
| Distance to larger agglomeration (ln) | -0.1521 | -4.100 | -0.1351 | -6.910 | -0.1111 | -2.740 | -0.062 | -1.420 | -0.1271 | -3.120 |
| Distance to smaller agglomeration (ln) | -0.003 | -0.440 | -0.0451 | -3.408 | -0.011 | -0.880 | -0.0451 | -2.790 | -0.0231 | -2.610 |
| Socio-economic factors | ||||||||||
| Community economic specialization (ln) | -0.1381 | -2.290 | -0.2361 | -4.220 | -0.1181 | -1.830 | -0.2471 | -4.220 | -0.4751 | -2.930 |
| Regional economic specialization (ln) | -0.126 | -0.820 | -0.002 | -0.020 | -0.3771 | -2.000 | -0.267 | -1.240 | 0.232 | 0.930 |
| Community educational attainment (ln) | 0.039 | 0.940 | 0.041 | 1.690 | 0.1281 | 2.920 | 0.043 | 1.070 | 0.4551 | 3.870 |
| Regional educational attainment (ln) | 0.3151 | 2.450 | 0.022 | 0.230 | 0.4571 | 2.510 | -0.002 | -0.010 | 0.8581 | 2.280 |
| Community labour force participation rate (ln) | 0.2891 | 2.740 | 0.137 | 1.430 | 0.107 | 0.440 | -0.006 | -0.060 | -0.302 | -0.630 |
| Regional labour force participation rate (ln) | 0.205 | 0.700 | 0.5721 | 2.800 | -0.281 | -0.660 | 0.921 | 1.600 | -1.6341 | -2.50 |
| Other demographics | ||||||||||
| Population less than 15 years of age (ln) | 0.063 | 0.680 | 0.003 | 0.050 | -0.171 | -1.800 | 0.162 | 1.990 | 0.031 | 0.130 |
| Population 55 to 74 years of age (ln) | -0.043 | -0.670 | -0.021 | -0.470 | -0.1371 | -1.900 | 0.035 | 0.590 | -0.110 | -0.720 |
| Presence of young in-comers (dummy) | -0.020 | -0.200 | -0.1271 | -2.270 | -0.155 | -1.190 | -0.021 | -0.250 | ... | ... |
| Young who recently moved in (ln) | 0.015 | 0.710 | 0.0591 | 3.830 | 0.041 | 1.180 | -0.012 | -0.540 | 0.2361 | 2.180 |
| Presence of senior in-comers (dummy) | -0.003 | -0.070 | -0.1981 | -5.530 | -0.3481 | -3.650 | -0.031 | -0.680 | 0.6781 | 2.340 |
| Seniors who recently moved in (ln) | 0.0401 | 2.290 | 0.0971 | 7.480 | 0.1391 | 5.710 | 0.044 | 2.460 | 0.069 | 1.450 |
| Presence of Aboriginal population (dummy) | 0.001 | 0.030 | 0.011 | 0.530 | 0.011 | 0.470 | -0.0041 | -0.140 | -0.093 | -0.730 |
| Aboriginal population (ln) | 0.0271 | 2.080 | -0.004 | -0.160 | -0.033 | -1.570 | 0.0571 | 5.250 | 0.034 | 1.450 |
| R2 | 0.640 | ... | 0.520 | ... | 0.510 | ... | 0.670 | ... | 0.730 | ... |
| Number of observations (CCSs) | 340 | ... | 987 | ... | 493 | ... | 410 | ... | 152 | ... |
|
1. Figures in bold indicate statistical significance at the 10% significance level or higher; White robust standard errors are used to account for the possible failure of the assumption of normality and homogeneity of the variance of the residuals (Stock and Watson, 2007). Note: The definition of macro-region is presented in Box 2. Variable definitions are presented in Appendix Table A1. CCS: Census Consolidated Subdivisions Source: Author's estimation based on Census of Population data for 1981 and 2006. |
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