Analysis

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in the 12 months to March, following a 1.2% increase in February.

The slower increase in the CPI was mainly the result of gasoline prices, which fell 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in March, after rising 3.9% in February. Provincially, gasoline prices declined year over year in seven provinces.

Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 1.1% in the 12 months to March, matching the rise in February.

12-month change in the major components

Consumer prices rose in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to March. The exceptions were transportation, and health and personal care, both of which posted no change.

Food prices increased 1.8% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 1.9% rise in February. Consumers paid 2.2% more for food purchased from restaurants.

Consumers also paid more for food purchased from stores, as prices rose for fresh vegetables (+7.2%) and fresh fruit (+8.7%). In contrast, prices for non-alcoholic beverages declined 3.6%.

Shelter costs rose 1.1% in the 12 months to March, after increasing 0.8% in February. Rent and homeowners’ replacement cost advanced on a year-over-year basis, while mortgage interest cost decreased 4.0%.

Prices for transportation posted no change on a year-over-year basis in March, after advancing 2.0% the previous month. Gasoline prices decreased year over year, while prices for the purchase of passenger vehicles rose 0.8% in the 12 months to March, following a 2.5% increase in February.

Prices for recreation, education and reading rose 0.3% in the 12 months to March, following a 1.0% rise in February. Consumers paid 4.8% less for travel tours year over year in March.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose in all provinces in the 12 months to March. The largest increase was registered in Manitoba, while the smallest increase occurred in British Columbia.

Gasoline prices were a factor in the year-over-year change in most provincial CPIs.

Consumer prices in Manitoba rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in March, after registering a 2.2% increase in February. In Manitoba, gasoline prices increased 4.9% in the 12 months to March, following a 4.8% increase in February.

In British Columbia, consumer prices rose 0.5% in the 12 months to March, after increasing 0.9% in February. Gasoline prices decreased 0.6% year over year in March, following a 5.5% increase the previous month. Of all the provinces, British Columbia posted the largest year-over-year price decrease for homeowners’ replacement cost.

Consumer prices in Nova Scotia increased 1.1% in the 12 months to March, following a 1.9% advance in February. Gasoline prices declined 1.0% on a year-over-year basis in March, after rising 3.9% the previous month.

Prices in Alberta rose 1.2% year over year in March, after rising 0.9% the previous month. Smaller year-over-year price decreases for electricity were observed in March compared with February.

Seasonally adjusted monthly CPI increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in March, after increasing 0.7% in February.

The seasonally adjusted index for transportation decreased 1.5% in March, following a 2.7% increase in February. The recreation, education and reading index decreased 0.3% in March. Conversely, the index for clothing and footwear and the index for shelter increased 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

Non-seasonally adjusted monthly CPI increases

On a monthly basis and before seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 0.2% in March, after increasing 1.2% in February.

Prices for transportation declined 0.6% in March, following a 2.8% increase in February. Gasoline prices increased 0.2%, after rising 8.4% the previous month. Consumers paid 1.5% less for the purchase of passenger vehicles.

Prices for clothing and footwear rose 4.3% in March, following a 4.0% increase in February. Prices increased for women’s clothing (+7.4%) and children’s clothing (+11.0%), as spring and summer fashions were introduced.

Prices for food declined 0.4% in March, led by price declines for fresh vegetables (-2.3%) and dairy products (-0.9%).

On a provincial basis, consumer prices rose in eight provinces. The largest increase occurred in Manitoba (+0.6%). Quebec (-0.2%) was the only province to register a decline, while Nova Scotia posted no change.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.4% in the 12 months to March, matching the increase in February.

On a month-to-month basis and before seasonal adjustment, the core index increased 0.2% in March after increasing 0.8% in February.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index increased 0.2% in March, after increasing 0.4% in February.