Section A:
A portrait of the school-age population

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A1 Population size [PDF version]
A3 Low income [PDF version]

A1 Population size

Table A.1.1

Indicator A1 examines the evolution in the size of the estimated and projected Canadian pre-school and school-age population, and the population aged 25 to 29 (Table A.1.1).

Concepts and definitions

• For this indicator, the school-age population includes all individuals aged 5 to 24, whether or not they are attending school. Estimates and projections are also provided for the pre-school-age population (aged 0 to 4), and the population aged 25 to 29. The following age groups, which align with the standard used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Statistics Canada, have been adopted for the Pan-Canadian Education Indicators Program (PCEIP): 5 to 14; 15 to 19; 20 to 24; and 25 to 29.

• The scenario used for the total Canadian population projection is the medium-growth, historical migration trends scenario, which is based on the following assumptions: a total fertility rate constant of 1.7 births per woman; a Canadian life expectancy that reaches 84.0 years for males and 87.3 years of age for females in 2036; a constant national effective of 252,500 immigrants for the first three years of the projection, and then a constant national immigration rate of 0.75%; interprovincial migrations based on the trends observed between 1981 and 2008.

• Interjurisdictional migration is the movement of population from one province or territory to another, involving a permanent change in residence. A person who takes up residence in another province/territory is an out-migrant with reference to the province/territory of origin and an in-migrant with respect to the province/territory of destination. Net migration is the difference between in- and out-migrants.

Methodology

• The population data for 1991 through 2006 are from Statistics Canada's demographic estimates program; more precisely, final intercensal estimates for 1991 through 2001, and final postcensal estimates for 2006. Postcensal estimates are based on the latest census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage, incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and for estimated population growth that occurred since that census. Intercensal estimates are based on postcensal estimates and census counts that have been adjusted preceding and following the year considered.

• The population data for the year 2011 and after are from the demographic projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 2009 to 2036. The base population for these projections is from the postcensal estimates of population for Canada, provinces and territories, as of July 1, 2009.

Limitations

• Although commonly used for planning purposes, population projections should be interpreted with caution as they are based on assumptions about the future course of demographic components. For instance, fertility is the main determinant of the school-age population and it may not remain stable over the next 25 years as assumed.

• The interpretation of projections at the jurisdictional level should be done with special care because these estimates are sensitive to interjurisdictional migration, a demographic component that is generally volatile.

Data sources

• Estimates of population, Demography Division, Statistics Canada. For more information, consult "Definitions, data sources and methods", Statistics Canada Web site, survey 3601, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3601&lang=en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2

• Population projections for Canada, the provinces and territories, 2009 to 2036, Demography Division, Statistics Canada. For more information, consult "Definitions, data sources and methods", Statistics Canada Web site, survey 3602, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3602&lang=en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2

A3 Low income

Tables A.3.1.1 through A.3.1.3 and Table A.3.2

Indicator A3 provides information on the proportion of the population aged 0 to 24 living in low-income circumstances. The percentage of 0- to 24-year-olds in low income situations is presented by age group and type of living arrangement (Table A.3.1.1, Table A.3.1.2 and Table A.3.1.3). The length of time the individuals aged 5 to 24 have been living in such situations is presented in Table A.3.2. These data are presented for Canada and the provinces.

Concepts and definitions

• This indicator refers to the pre-school as well as the school-age population and includes all individuals aged 0 to 24, whether or not they are attending school. The following age groups have been adopted for PCEIP:  0 to 4, 5 to 19 and 20 to 24.

• Two living arrangements are presented for the population aged 0 to 4 in low-income circumstances: living with two parents or living with a lone parent. For the population 5 to 24, three types of living arrangements are presented:  living with two parents, living with a lone parent, and not living with any parent.

• The distribution of the population aged 5 to 24 by number of years in low income is categorized as follows:  never in low income, up to one year in low income, and more than one year in low income.

• Parents captures biological and step-parents, as well as those who have adopted children. Lone parent refers to guardians and adults, regardless of marital status, without a partner but with children in their care.

• Low income is determined using Statistics Canada's low-income cutoffs (LICOs), which indicate when a family may be in "straitened circumstances." This means that the family is likely to spend 20% more of its net income on basic items such as food, shelter and clothing than the average family, which leaves less money available for other expenses such as health, education, transportation and recreation. LICOs are calculated for families and communities of different sizes.

Methodology

• Data for this indicator are drawn primarily from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID), an important source for income data for Canadian families, households and individuals. Introduced in 1993, SLID provides an added dimension to traditional surveys on labour market activity and income: the changes experienced by individuals and families through time. In 1998, SLID officially replaced the annual Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) as the main source of information on family income.

• After-tax low-income cut-offs (LICOs), which better reflect the income a family has to spend on basic and other items, were used to report the percentage of children living in low-income families and the distribution by number of years in low income. LICOs are updated annually to reflect increases in the cost of living. They are also updated periodically to reflect changes in family spending patterns.

• Low-income rates are calculated for families with all members of an economic family having the same low-income status. An economic family is defined as a group of two or more persons related by blood, marriage, common-law or adoption, who live in the same dwelling.

Limitations

• There is no internationally accepted standard for measuring "poverty", nor is there an official definition of poverty in Canada. LICOs provide one of many possible measures to monitor trends in the relative economic well-being of Canadian families.

• The Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) was designed to follow individuals for six years; therefore, the income of a given family may be estimated for a maximum of six consecutive years using data from SLID.

• The feasibility of developing low income indicators for the Aboriginal population using SLID was explored. However, the Aboriginal identifier variable used in SLID is not comparable with that used in the census or in the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The identifier used in SLID is based on Aboriginal ancestry and Treaty/Registered Indian status, while the identifier used in the census and the LFS is based on Aboriginal self-identification. Moreover, the sample size of Aboriginal children aged 5 to 24 in low income in Canada is too small to support a breakdown by family characteristics and by province. And, most importantly, SLID is not recommended by subject matter experts in the Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division at Statistics Canada as a reliable source of information on the Aboriginal population.

Data sources

• Survey of Consumer Finances, Statistics Canada. For more information, consult "Definitions, data sources and methods", Statistics Canada Web site, survey 3502, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3502&lang=en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2

• Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, Statistics Canada. For more information, consult "Definitions, data sources and methods", Statistics Canada Web site, survey 3889, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3889&lang=en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2