Analysis

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In the fourth quarter of 2011, Canada's population grew by 65,000 or 0.2% to an estimated 34,670,400 on January 1, 2012. This is fairly similar to the fourth-quarter growth ¹  observed in recent years. Net international migration accounted for slightly less than two-thirds (57%) of the country's population growth in the fourth quarter of 2011. Net international migration amounted to 36,800 versus 10,000 for the same period in 2010, the highest net international migration flow for a fourth quarter since 1988 (56,600). Natural increase in the fourth quarter of 2011 was down by 3.4% compared to the same period in 2010.

Close to 59,800 immigrants settled in Canada during the fourth quarter of 2011, 2,200 more than in the same period in 2010. This is the largest number of immigrants for a fourth quarter since 1992 (64,900). Overall, however, the total numbers for 2011 were lower than in 2010 (248,700 versus 280,700). The net flow of non-permanent residents was estimated at -10,000 in the fourth quarter, which is still greater than in the fourth quarter of 2010 (-34,600).

Natural increase was estimated at 28,200 in the fourth quarter of 2011, the lowest fourth-quarter increase since 2006 (27,600). The observed growth is based on the difference between the estimated 93,800 births and 65,600 deaths between October 1, 2011 and January 1, 2012.

Population growth in the provinces and territories

Preliminary estimates show that the population declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 in Prince Edward Island (-0.2%), Nova Scotia (-0.1%) and the Northwest Territories (-0.3%). By contrast, the populations of the three Prairie provinces grew faster than the national average. Alberta (0.5%) had the greatest population growth in Canada from October, 2011 to January, 2012.

Atlantic provinces

Preliminary estimates show that the population of Newfoundland and Labrador remained stable between October 1, 2011 and January 1, 2012, totalling an estimated 511,000 on January 1, 2012. The province posted losses in its fourth-quarter interprovincial migration exchanges (-200) for the first time since 2006 (-600), losing mostly in exchanges with Alberta (-400).

The population of Prince Edward Island declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 by approximately 300 (-0.2%) to a total of 145,900 on January 1, 2012. That is the first time the population has declined, in any quarter, since the fourth quarter of 2008. The population decline was the result of the largest fourth-quarter loss in interprovincial migration (-500) since population estimates are produced with the current accounting system (1971).

On January 1, 2012, Nova Scotia's population was estimated at 945,500. Preliminary estimates indicate that the population decreased by 800 or 0.1% between October 1, 2011 and January 1, 2012. This decline was mainly the result of significantly greater losses in interprovincial migration (-1,100). For example, Nova Scotia lost an estimated 600 people in migration exchanges with Alberta.

On January 1, 2012, the population of New Brunswick was estimated at 756,000, and it remained stable between October 1, 2011 and January 1, 2012. The province's net international migration was 400, the highest for a fourth quarter since 1973 (500). The increase in net international migration was mainly the result of an increase in the number of immigrants (600).

Central Canada

Quebec's population grew by 11,000 or 0.1% to 8,013,100 as of January 1, 2012. Natural increase (6,700) and international migration (5,600) accounted for most of the province's population growth. After posting slight gains in interprovincial migration in the third quarter of 2011, Quebec recorded a loss of 1,200 in the fourth quarter. The loss was largely due to losses in migration exchanges with Ontario (-900).

Ontario's fourth-quarter population growth (0.2%) was the highest for a fourth quarter since 2001 (0.2%). The increase in Ontario's population was mostly due to net international migration. Net international migration was estimated at 13,600, the highest for a fourth quarter since 1988 (35,000) and significantly higher than in 2010 (4,800). This strong increase in net international migration resulted in large part from an increase in the net flow of non-permanent residents (-4,600), the greatest net flow in a fourth quarter since 1988 (16,600).

Western Canada

Manitoba's population grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011, an increase similar to the fourth-quarter increase in the previous year and one of the largest increases since 1971, the first year covered by the current system of demographic accounts. Net international migration (3,300) accounted for most of the province's growth. The increase in Manitoba's net international migration was attributable mainly to a record flow of immigrants (3,600) into the province. However, these gains were partially offset by losses in interprovincial migration exchanges (-1,000), mainly with British Columbia (-500).

Preliminary estimates indicate that Saskatchewan's population grew by 0.4% or 4,100 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to a total of 1,067,600 as of January 1, 2012. The increase is the largest for a fourth quarter for the period covered by the current system of demographic accounts (1971). Most of Saskatchewan's population growth was the result of a record net flow of international migration estimated at more than 3,000. That net flow can be attributed to an increase both in the number of immigrants (2,500) and in the net flow of non-permanent residents (600).

On January 1, 2012, Alberta's population was estimated at 3,818,000. Growth in the fourth quarter (0.5%) was significantly greater than that in the fourth quarter of the previous year (0.2%). The increase in population growth was the result of a significant increase in both net international migration and net interprovincial migration. Alberta's net international migration, estimated at 6,300, was at its second highest level for a fourth quarter since 1971. The province's net interprovincial migration (6,000) was at its highest level for any quarter since the second quarter of 2008. Alberta gained mostly from interprovincial migration exchanges with Ontario (2,000).

Preliminary estimates show that British Columbia's population grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011 to a total of 4,597,900 as of January 1, 2012. The population growth was mainly the result of international migration (4,100), which was up significantly from 2010 (-1,100). An increase in the net flow of non-permanent residents (-2,200) was behind most of the increase in the province's net flow of international migration. For the fourth quarter in a row, British Columbia posted a loss in interprovincial migration (-400). This loss was the highest recorded for a fourth quarter since 2001 (-1,800). In particular, British Columbia posted a loss in its migration exchanges with Alberta (-900).

The territories

Yukon's population remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2011, in contrast to the fourth quarter of the previous year, when the territory's population declined (-0.4%). Preliminary estimates show that Yukon's population was 34,900 on January 1, 2012.

The population decline in the Northwest Territories in the fourth quarter of 2011 (-0.3%) was slightly less than that in the fourth quarter of the previous year (-0.4%). The territory's population was estimated at 43,300 on January 1, 2012.

Nunavut's population growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 was estimated at 0.2%, up from 0.0% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Nunavut's population was estimated at 33,400 on January 1, 2012.