Table 3.15
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, observed (1972/1973 to 2012/2013) and projected (2017/2018 to 2037/2038) according to selected scenarios, British Columbia

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Table 3.15
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, observed (1972/1973 to 2012/2013) and projected (2017/2018 to 2037/2038) according to selected scenarios, British Columbia
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario (appearing as row headers), Period, Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Emigration, Non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Observed 1972/1973 27.6 7.2 15.0 7.8 8.5 9.8 1.6 0.3 11.8 34.3 22.4
1992/1993 26.0 5.9 13.2 7.4 8.6 11.8 2.0 -1.2 11.6 22.7 11.1
2012/2013 8.5 2.5 9.7 7.2 7.7 7.9 2.6 2.5 -1.7 11.0 12.7
Projected (low-growth scenario (L)) 2017/2018 7.3 1.4 9.2 7.8 3.0 7.6 4.6 0.0 3.0 14.1 11.2
2027/2028 4.2 -0.6 8.3 8.9 1.9 6.4 4.4 0.0 2.8 13.9 11.1
2037/2038 2.1 -2.8 7.9 10.7 2.0 6.4 4.3 0.0 2.9 14.2 11.3
Projected (medium-growth scenario (M1)) 2017/2018 11.5 2.2 9.8 7.6 6.3 9.5 3.8 0.7 2.9 14.1 11.2
2027/2028 10.1 1.4 9.5 8.1 5.9 9.5 3.6 0.0 2.8 14.0 11.2
2037/2038 8.4 -0.3 8.9 9.2 6.0 9.5 3.6 0.0 2.8 14.3 11.5
Projected (medium-growth scenario (M2)) 2017/2018 13.1 2.4 9.9 7.5 6.3 9.5 3.8 0.7 4.4 16.4 11.9
2027/2028 11.6 1.8 9.7 7.9 5.9 9.5 3.7 0.0 4.0 16.0 11.9
2037/2038 10.0 0.2 9.1 8.9 5.9 9.5 3.6 0.0 3.9 16.1 12.2
Projected (medium-growth scenario (M3)) 2017/2018 7.1 2.0 9.7 7.7 6.4 9.5 3.7 0.7 -1.3 11.6 12.8
2027/2028 5.4 0.6 9.1 8.4 6.0 9.5 3.6 0.0 -1.2 11.6 12.8
2037/2038 3.4 -1.4 8.5 9.9 6.1 9.5 3.5 0.0 -1.2 12.0 13.2
Projected (high-growth scenario (H)) 2017/2018 15.4 3.4 10.6 7.2 9.0 10.4 2.9 1.6 2.9 14.1 11.2
2027/2028 15.4 3.7 10.7 7.1 9.0 11.4 2.8 0.4 2.7 14.0 11.2
2037/2038 13.8 2.4 10.1 7.7 8.7 11.4 2.7 0.0 2.7 14.3 11.6
Notes: Crude rates are calculated over the total population and expressed per thousand persons in the total population at midyear. Crude rates are significantly affected by the age structure of the population. For example, most countries will eventually experience an increase in the crude death rate in the coming decades due to the aging of the population, in spite of continued declines in mortality at all ages. The crude rate of natural increase and the crude rate of net migration sum to the crude growth rate. The crude rate of natural increase equals the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. The crude rate of net migration equals the crude rate of immigration minus the crude rate of net emigration plus the crude rate of net non-permanent resident migration. Net emigration is the balance of emigrants, minus returning emigrants, plus net temporary emigrants. The rate of net interprovincial migration equals the crude rate of interprovincial in-migration minus the crude rate of interprovincial out-migration.
Totals may not equal the sum of their components as a result of rounding.
Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division.
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