Chapter 3
Births and deaths

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• 3.1 Data sources and relevant concepts
• 3.2 Birth and death estimates, Canada, provinces and territories
  • 3.2.1 Levels of estimates
  • 3.2.2 Final estimates
  • 3.2.3 Preliminary estimates
  • 3.2.4 Special treatment for preliminary estimates for Quebec and British Columbia
• 3.3 The use of birth and death estimates in other population estimates

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Births and deaths have been recorded on a regular basis since 1921. Since the registration of births and deaths is a legal requirement in Canada, these data are readily available and are generally of very high quality.^{Note 1}

Births are added to the base population, and deaths, excluding stillbirths, are subtracted (accounting as well for migration components) to generate the population estimates. The term births is commonly used to mean live births, while the term deaths refers to deaths excluding stillbirths.^{Note 2} This chapter contains information about the data sources for births and deaths and the methods of producing preliminary estimates.

3.1 Data sources and relevant concepts

Information on births and deaths is obtained from the vital statistics databases maintained by Statistics Canada's Health Statistics Division. The databases are created in collaboration with the provincial and territorial ministries responsible for recording vital statistics. Under provincial and territorial vital statistics acts (or equivalent legislation), the registration of all live births and all deaths is compulsory. The central vital statistics registry in each province and territory provides Statistics Canada with data on births and deaths. The data are available at the national, provincial, territorial, census division (CD) and census metropolitan area (CMA) levels.

The birth universe database includes births to Canadians, immigrants and non-permanent residents in Canada. The death universe database comprises deaths of Canadian residents, immigrants and non-permanent residents in Canada. Births and deaths of non-residents (visitors) are excluded.

3.2 Birth and death estimates, Canada, provinces and territories

3.2.1 Levels of estimates

There are three levels of estimates—preliminary, updated and final. These estimates are produced using vital statistics data provided by the Health Statistics Division. For final estimates, the numbers of births and deaths are taken directly from vital statistics provided by the Health Statistics Division (HSD). Vital statistics are received annually, with a lag of two to three years relative to our reference period. For preliminary and updated estimates, we use the ratio method described below.

3.2.2 Final estimates

Because of the completeness of the vital statistics databases, the data provided by the HSD for demographic estimates requires very few adjustments. When both place of birth or death and place of residence are available in the data files, place of residence is preferred for reporting the event for the purposes of population estimates as well as vital statistics health indicators. When a woman gives birth outside her province (i.e., in a province other than her province of residence), the birth is counted in the mother's province of residence. Similarly, if a person dies outside his or her province or territory of residence, the death is counted in the province or territory of residence. This is because the birth or death affects the population of the province of residence and not that of the province where the event occurred.

Using the component method, the number of births that occurred between the date on which the base population was established and the reference date is simply added to the base population and the number of deaths is subtracted from the base population.

3.2.3 Preliminary estimates^{Note 3}

Since vital statistics are not available at the time the preliminary population estimates are produced, births and deaths are estimated by applying probabilities to the population. The number of births is estimated using fertility rates by the mother's age group. The number of deaths is estimated using death rates by age group and sex. To produce preliminary or updated estimates, we use ratios based on the most recent year for which final estimates are available. This method is not used for Quebec or British Columbia since their statistical agencies always provide their most recent estimates (see below for details). The preliminary estimates are produced on a quarterly basis.

The following formulas are used to generate quarterly preliminary estimates of births and deaths at the provincial and territorial level.

Births:

By quarter for each province and territory, by mother's age group at the beginning of the quarter:

Equation 3.1:      ${\text{B}}_{(\text{t},\text{t}+2)}^{{\text{a}}_{\text{M}}}=\left(\frac{{}^{\text{f}}\text{B}{}^{{\text{a}}_{\text{M}}}}{{}^{\text{f}}\text{P}{}^{{\text{a}}_{\text{F}}}}\right)\times {\text{P}}_{\text{t}}^{{\text{a}}_{\text{F}}}$

where

Then the estimate of the total number of births is calculated as follows:

Equation 3.2:      ${\text{B}}_{(\text{t},\text{t}+2)}={\displaystyle \sum _{\text{a}}{\text{B}}_{(\text{t},\text{t}+2)}^{{\text{a}}_{\text{M}}}}$

Deaths:

By quarter for each province and territory, by age at the beginning of the quarter, for each sex:

Equation 3.3:      ${\text{D}}_{(\text{t},\text{t}+2)}^{\text{a},\text{s}}=\left(\frac{{}^{\text{f}}\text{D}{}^{\text{a},\text{s}}}{{}^{\text{f}}\text{P}{}^{\text{a},\text{s}}}\right)\times {\text{P}}_{\text{t}}^{\text{a},\text{s}}$

where

The estimate of total number of deaths is then calculated as follows:

Equation 3.4:      ${\text{D}}_{(\text{t},\text{t}+2)}={\displaystyle \sum _{\text{s}}{\displaystyle \sum _{\text{a}}{\text{D}}_{(\text{t},\text{t}+2)}^{\text{a},\text{s}}}}$

Monthly estimates are calculated using the most current final monthly distribution of births (or deaths).

The preliminary estimates cannot be finalized until the Health Statistics Division releases the vital statistics. Demography Division revises its estimates in the fall of each year.

3.2.4 Special treatment for preliminary estimates for Quebec and British Columbia

Quebec and British Columbia submit their most recent estimates of births and deaths to Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program (DEP). Those estimates are based on counts available from their respective vital statistics offices. Their figures are used to produce preliminary or updated estimates for Statistics Canada's publication. For the final estimates, the two provinces' birth and death figures are taken from the vital statistics compiled by the Health Statistics Division.

3.3 The use of birth and death estimates in other population estimates

Information about births and deaths from the Canadian vital statistics databases are used to produce other types of population estimates. For example, birth and death data (in addition to the other components of demographic growth) are used to produce the population estimates by age and sex, which will be discussed in Chapter 9.

Notes