Publications
Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada
Introduction
Demographic estimates are the cornerstone of statistical measurement for the population, and are put to a wide variety of uses to gain a better understanding of the economic and social situation in Canada. Their importance is highlighted by the statutory requirements for the calculation of revenue transfers and cost-sharing programs between the various levels of government. Statistics Canada, the national statistical agency responsible for this, and other data, considers the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of data to be of the utmost importance.
Every five years, Statistics Canada conducts a national census of population which collects a wide range of demographic data on the Canadian population. The census, or the National Household Survey, collects information on citizens, immigrants and non-permanent residents (NPR) residing in Canada. While some countries have a system of continuous population registration, from which basic demographic data on the state and movement of the population for non-census years can be obtained, this is not the case in Canada.
With its five-year intervals, the census cannot meet the need for timely data required by Statistics Canada's various statistical programs and external data users. To fill this gap, Statistics Canada has developed the Demographic Estimates Program. Various methodological techniques use the most recent census data collected by Statistics Canada, along with administrative data provided by other government departments and organizations, to produce estimates of the Canadian population between censuses.Note 1
In 1987, Statistics Canada published its first manual detailing the methods used for estimating population, Population Estimation Methods, Canada (Catalogue no. 91-528). The manual represented a direct response to a long-standing policy at Statistics Canada that requires the methods used to produce the agency's statistical information be open to public scrutiny. The manual was updated in 2003, 2007, 2012, and, again, herein to document conceptual and methodological changes that have been made to the Demographic Estimates Program.
Data quality indicators and analysis of demographic estimates are important for users of these estimates, and are helpful to Statistics Canada in fulfilling its role as the national statistical agency responsible for this data. Quality indicators are available in annual and quarterly publications.Note 2 In addition, the 1987 and 2003 versions of the report included a discussion on the data quality of the various components of demographic growth. In the previous and current versions of the report, the discussion on the quality indicators has been removed. The analysis of these quality indicators and various special data quality evaluations will be featured on their own in a companion publication on data quality indicators and analysis.
This manual is intended to be a compendium of the methods and the current procedures used by Statistics Canada to produce and release population and family estimates.
Estimates
Essentially, there are two categories of estimates produced by Statistics Canada: postcensal and intercensal. The first category, postcensal estimates, are produced by using data from the most recent census (adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU)Note 3) and estimates of the components of demographic growth since that last census. These components include births, deaths, immigration, net non-permanent residents, emigration, net temporary emigration, returning emigrants and interprovincial migration. Two more components are relevant, the residual deviation for intercensal estimates and intraprovincial migration for estimates within subprovincial areas in Canada. All elements of the production of population estimates are discussed in this manual.
Three types of postcensal estimates are produced—preliminary, updated and final estimates—referring to the timeframe in which they become available. Preliminary estimates (noted P) are typically available within three to four months after the reference date, while updated estimates (noted R) are usually available within one year. Final estimates (noted F) are the most accurate postcensal estimates available. They typically take two to three years to complete. The production of three types of estimates is the strategy that best satisfies the commitment of Statistics Canada to balance the timeliness and accuracy of data quality.
Intercensal estimates are produced every five years and reconcile previous postcensal estimates with the latest census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage. They are generated as soon as census population counts and census net undercoverage become available. This process typically takes two years after census data collection to complete.
Disseminated level of detail for the estimates
Population estimates are disseminated at four geographic levels: province and territory, census division, census metropolitan area, and economic region. Demographic estimates at custom-defined subprovincial levels (e.g., census subdivisions, health regions) are possible and can be estimated through special cost-recovery tabulations. For timeliness, and because some components of demographic growth are not available until several months after the reference date, three kinds of postcensal estimates are produced—preliminary postcensal (PP), updated postcensal (PR)Note 4 and final postcensal (PD). Intercensal estimates are produced using final postcensal estimates and counts from two consecutive censuses adjusted for census net undercoverage. According to the level of geography and type of estimate, different demographic characteristics of the population (including age and sex) are produced. Table 1 shows the level of detail and the reference period for which demographic estimates are disseminated.
Table 1
Availability of population estimates and components of demographic growth
| Geography | Characteristics | Type of estimateNote * | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada, provinces and territories | Total population and components of demographic growth |
|
|
| Population and components of demographic growth
|
|
Annual estimates | |
Population
|
|
Annual estimates | |
Family
|
|
Annual estimates | |
| Census division / Census metropolitan area / economic region |
Population and components of demographic growth
|
|
Annual estimates |
|
|||
Demographic estimates at custom-defined subprovincial levels can be produced by applying synthetic estimation techniques—assuming the largest geographic area's distribution is valid for the other geographic regions or smaller ones—or by regression estimation techniques, assuming the known population totals, usually from the census, are still valid.
Users of population and family estimates
At Statistics Canada, demographic information is used to calibrate sampling weights of many social and household surveys and is a fundamental part of the analytical framework of most statistical programs. Estimates of Canada's population have other wide-ranging applications in the areas of planning and program evaluation in both the public and private sectors. The calculation of revenue transfers under various federal statutory programs, for example, as well as cost-sharing agreements between federal, provincial, territorial and municipal governments are highly dependent on demographic data. Statistics Canada is also under statutory obligation to provide the federal government with annual population figures as well as various economic indicators (e.g., gross domestic product) that have been certified by the Chief Statistician of Canada. These figures are used to determine the amounts payable under various federal–provincial fiscal arrangements such as the Equalization and Territorial Formula Financing (TFF), the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) and the Canada Social Transfer (CST), according to a per capita funding formula. The federal government distributes billions of dollars annually in federal transfers to provinces and territories using population estimates.Note 5 Since 2011, the estimates have also been used in the provincial readjustment of federal electoral boundaries as described in the Fair Representation Act.
The CHT and CST are federal transfers that support specific policy areas, such as health care, postsecondary education, social assistance and social services, early childhood development, and childcare.
The equalization and TFF programs provide unconditional transfers to the provinces and territories. Equalization allows less prosperous provincial governments to provide their residents with public services that are reasonably comparable to those in other provinces, at reasonably comparable levels of taxation. TFF provides territorial governments with funding to support public services to account for the higher cost of providing programs and services in the Canadian North.
Population is a key variable of the distribution formula used by the federal government to determine its annual expenditures. As billions of dollars depend directly upon these allocation formulas, accurate and up-to-date estimates are extremely important.
The Government of Canada relies on population data to make informed decisions on some of its most fundamental policies. For example, up-to-date information on the evolving demographic situation in Canada proves useful for Cabinet in its decisions relating to immigration policy. These data also contribute to increasing the cost-effectiveness of public policy expenditures.
Provincial and municipal governments also use demographic estimates to plan social programs and establish cost-sharing agreements on the basis of the per capita spending formula. Among the public service users of Statistics Canada's estimates are education and public health planners, and public administrators responsible for policing, criminal justice, municipal administration, and waste and environmental management.
Demographic estimates are fundamental in the calculation of social and economic indicators, in particular birth rates, death rates, school enrolment rates, unemployment rates, and life expectancy. Population serves directly as the denominator in many of these indicators. Survey researchers, whether at Statistics Canada, in academia, or in private polling agencies, must use up-to-date figures in survey planning and in the calculation of sampling weights.
The private sector also uses demographic estimates for business planning, marketing research and investments. The estimates also help companies properly segment and target their markets, and make sound investment decisions.
Overview of this manual
Chapter 1 presents the overall methods used to produce population estimates, and focuses on describing the various levels of estimation—postcensal and intercensal estimates. It explains the concept of base population and demographic growth factors and their components—from components that lead to a natural increase (births and deaths) and international effects like international migration (immigrants, emigrants, returning emigrants, net temporary emigration, and net non permanent residents)—using redistributive effects such as interprovincial migration.
The individual chapters that follow include discussions on data sources, concepts and methodology for each of the components. Each chapter describes how estimates are produced, as well as the type and origin of the data used in the calculations. This should give the reader a clearer picture of the strengths and weaknesses of each method.
Chapter 2 explains how the base population is estimated. Chapters 3 to 7 describe the components of demographic growth for Canada, the provinces and territories. Chapter 3 focuses on information on births and deaths. Chapters 4 to 6 present the components of international migration (immigration is presented in Chapter 4; net non-permanent residents in Chapter 5; and emigration, net temporary emigration and returning emigrants in Chapter 6). Chapter 7 discusses interprovincial migration.
Chapter 8 describes the methods used to produce subprovincial population estimates. Chapter 9 focuses on population estimates by age, sex, marital status and legal marital status. Chapter 10 describes the methods for estimating census families, economic entities and households. A glossary of main terms is also available.
Notes
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